Yellow Evan wrote:Alyono wrote:NHC is likely killing this off a bit too quick.
EC is showing a strong TS at 144 hours. I think it's because their track is including the MU, which is resulting in SSTs that are far too cold
The SHIPS output seems to be showing SSTs are too cold when compared to Reynolds/CDAS.
it's matching Reynolds just fine
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/sst_loop/14_pac.png
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 124 128 129 127 114 97 87 71 60 46 37 29
V (KT) LAND 115 124 128 129 127 114 97 87 71 60 46 37 29
V (KT) LGEM 115 120 120 116 109 93 79 67 56 45 35 27 21
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 5 7 7 10 5 10 9 7 7 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -2 0 9 11 11 11 14 18 14 7
SHEAR DIR 24 48 50 50 62 79 61 81 134 183 218 245 221
SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.0 24.1 23.9 24.3 24.6
The issue is, the track may be too far north
Levi Cowen's site has warmer SSTs
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... obal_1.png
I don't think this will matter as I think this will pass several hundred miles SOUTH of Hawaii