WDPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM TAIWAN. THE INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES AND WITH RECENT OBJECTIVE SATELLITE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS DATA. STY 02W APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH COOLING EYE TEMPERATURES EVIDENT
IN INFRARED SATELLITE DATA. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD
SOUTH CENTRAL TAIWAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL
IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL TAIWAN AROUND TAU 12. CONTINUED
SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE STORM CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND, BUT THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A VERY INTENSE TYPHOON OR SUPER TYPHOON UNTIL THE
STORM CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STY 02W WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
CROSSES THE HIGH TERRAIN OF TAIWAN, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REORGANIZE
AND MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT
CROSSES THE TAIWAN STRAIT. BY TAU 36, STY 02W WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
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