NEW MOON PATH 2020

[gigabite]

cutting across the green part of Africa. There is some interesting terrain at the April 7th sub-point.
Plot a 2 point path with Google Earth, click OK, then right click on the path, and select view profile.

google earth kmz April_2016

[gigabite]

By this sample the atmosphere continues to hold more water vapor than last year.

My hypothesis surmises that the latitude of the moon functions as a bellows, a very slow moving one forsure. The New Moon and the Full Moon are on opposite sides of the equator, and as the latitude of the New Moon and Full Moon draw to their smallest equatorial distance, at the end of the lunar epoch this thing called the Super el Nino results 100 percent of the time due to a narrowing wind field. Since that time has passed growth in year over year global water has persisted. There will still be seasonal and epoch variations due to the dry land cross section at various latitudes.

The timing of this instance is to sample a weather/celestial corollary similar to Saxby's Weather System and previous pre-computer weather systems still in use in a climatologically sense.

[gigabite]

This is an area where activity could development if the surface environment were also conducive. There is a late season cold front expected to stall over Haiti on May 8th, 2016, according to the NWS which will provide a source of water vapor the pass is close enough to interact if the system is not rained out,
_______________________________-

This is not a forecast, nor should it be construed to be one.

[gigabite]

Global water vapor is up 19% year over year and 7% month over month

[gigabite]

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) are a half a degree to a degree and a half cooler in this area than last year.
There are lots of earthquake faults and volcanoes in the area, but the lunar distance is between earthquake clusters.
That is to say that the lunar distance is not an earthquake precursor on this pass.

[gigabite]

June 2016 water vapor plot shows continued progress over 2015. It seems that the summer bottoming trend
seen in 2014 & 2015 is at least delayed if not over.

[gigabite]

The sea surface temperatures difference over last year are generally 2 degrees warmer to 4 degrees cooler.
The Earth/Distance is indeterminate for global earthquake frequency. ( Not enough data in the matrix )

[gigabite]

July 2016 water vapor plot, the bottoming trend is definitely over.

[gigabite]

https://www.dropbox.com/s/aorgmbi9iyv8z ... 6.kmz?dl=0

New Moon in open water for the entire 7 days. Not an earthquake prone area, lunar subpoint passing within 500 kilometers of the big island of Hawaii. On August 2, 2016 the lunar subpoint will be 150 miles from buoy SE Hawaii.

[gigabite]

This is a plot of the global water vapor at the New Moon. Total volume is maintaining values well over the 29 month mean of 65 million square kilometers, and 20% higher year over year.

[gigabite]

This is the September lunar sub-point plot. The sub point is passing over some very fractured territory. The chance of the global earthquake frequency exceeding 460 quakes is just shy of 80 percent. The tropical storm count is 2 less than my analog year 1978. The Moon transit over Ethiopia is 12:25 pm local time. The chance of rainfall then is around 60%, so there will be some accelerated evaporation.

I expect that as the latitude of the New Moon at aphelion continues to rise over the next 9 years, global atmospheric pressure to shift downward, and U.S.rainfall rates will resume a trend of reaching new records that has lapsed for a better part of last decade.

[gigabite]

The path crosses a geologic active area on the day of the New Moon. Looks like a Saxby condition, except for
it is geology that is being influenced not weather, but maybe it is earthquake weather.
Some accelerated evaporation is going to get into the Hadley, for sure.

[gigabite]

This is a plot of the daily global earthquakes during the New Moon Phase. Back when I started this series of
observations on the old Weather Channel message board one of the people from allexperts.com sugessted
that I identify if the tidal bulge lead or trailed the lunar sub point. This graphic suggests that it trails the sub point.

There is not going to be an update to the global water vapor this time because the stitched global mosaic has a big hole in it.

[gigabite]

The October 1 2016 New Moon's alignment is September 30. That happens, sometimes it is a few hours after the New Moon, sometimes a few hours before. This pass is just catching the east edge of some of the warmest water in the Pacific. Accelerated evaporation could feed into the Hadley circulation increasing the odds of increased moisture along the U.S. east coast. There is a 70 percent chance that the global earthquake count will be over 460. The pass crosses the equator and the Clipperton Fracture Zone. In the past there has been elevated activity in Japan during this event. This crossing just catches the west edge of the zone, but the Earth Moon distance is almost at the maximum.

[gigabite]

This is the second New Moon for October. It will be swinging through the south Atlantic. The latitude in the early days of the pass is close enough to the equator to stir up some activity in the tropical Atlantic, maybe. The satellite eclipse problem seems to have passed, so the global water vapor chart will be updated. The earth-moon distance is in the upper quartile, at this range there is a 70 percent chance of over 460 earthquakes globally during the phase. Last month there was also an 70 percent chance for that earthquake count, the actual number was 281.

[gigabite]

This is a copy of all the global water vapor data that I have capture in this study. The year over year change since the 2015 low swing of the New Moon's Latitude has been a 33 percent increase, but that could be due to satellite upgrades. Naples Florida will have rainfall that will probably be at least 6 inches above normal. It will be interesting to see if global water vapor continues to expand as the latitude of the moon moves up toward N30°over the next 8 years.

[gigabite]

November's New Moon swings down to southern Africa. The USNO data site has been closed for the holiday. I had to use a private German almanac to refine the position. The moon path is still in warmer water, but south of the equator. The pitch from the Hadley Circulation should be south Australia. The Earthquake potential is still high. The probability of greater than 428 global earthquakes over the phase is 60% that percentage has been falling over the last few months. The number of observations in the database is at 30, but that is less than 3 cycles. There are 11 observations in the apogee quartile. The hypothesis still has a chance and the spatial factor hasn't been tested.

[gigabite]

The trend of increasing watervapor at the New Moon continues. There are still severe droughts across the country. Maybe there will be a threshold event where annual rain limits near term global warming. The 2 year increase in cloud cover is 1.6 percent, the 1 year increase in global water vapor is 0.5 percent. The upper reach of the New Moon's latitude at aphelion is around 2026, so if the trend of increasing cloud cover continues for a decade the net increase would only be 1 percent. Is that significant? As the latitude of the New Moon increases so does the width of the land mass traversed over. Is that a limiting factor?

[gigabite]

This is the December New Moon. The last pass over this region showed a increase in earthquake activity as it passed over the plate boundary. The Earth Moon distance is converging. My hypothesis that global earthquakes are dependent on lunar distance seems to have a flaw. Soon I will look at earthquake days and the lunar subpoint to see if there is a connection. The sea surface temperature is more elevated than last month. I will be looking to see some elevated rainfall amounts some where.

[gigabite]

The relationship between the New Moon Latitude and Global Water Vapor seems to be trending in the same direction, for now. The December 2016 year over year trend is up 14%. The 2 year trend is up 12%.