2016 EPAC Season

[gatorcane]

http://i.imgur.com/QFqfDDJ.png

http://i.imgur.com/tqUjnmZ.png

http://i.imgur.com/lhrgGAj.png

18z GFS has Celia, Darby, Estelle, and Frank

If this materializes, would be some kind of record most systems forming in such a short period of time for EPAC right?

[Yellow Evan]

http://i.imgur.com/QFqfDDJ.png

http://i.imgur.com/tqUjnmZ.png

http://i.imgur.com/lhrgGAj.png

18z GFS has Celia, Darby, Estelle, and Frank

If this materializes, would be some kind of record most systems forming in such a short period of time for EPAC right?

We saw six systems form within 15 days last year counting CPAC, so it'd be close to the closest together six storms have ever formed on record.

[cycloneye]

Hawaii must watch not from Blas but from potential Celia in long range.This is the 0%/40% area that NHC mentions.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a weak
area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and this system could become a
tropical depression later this week while it moves westward and then
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[Yellow Evan]

Most GFS/ECMWF runs seem to recurve likely Celia, but the question is when. No reason to get worried yet.

[Kingarabian]

Hawaii must watch not from Blas but from potential Celia in long range.This is the 0%/40% area that NHC mentions.

Hawaii is not out of the woods yet with Blas. Euro has been sending Blas south of Hawaii and the GFS to the north east. If they continue to disagree and you split the difference in track, Hawaii will be in the crosshairs.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Most GFS/ECMWF runs seem to recurve likely Celia, but the question is when. No reason to get worried yet.

I expect the GFS to eventually show Celia recurving, but it has had Celia hit Hawaii nearly every run now.

Don't know about the Euro because it's only 240 hours out.

[NDG]

You guys are taking a 300 hr+ forecast from the GFS seriously?

[cycloneye]

12z ECMWF has a big outbreak.

[gatorcane]

12z ECMWF has a big outbreak.

Indeed...

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%.

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this week
while it moves westward and then west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

[gatorcane]

Up to 70%.

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this week
while it moves westward and then west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Another Hawaii hit by GFS but weaker this run and still long-range:

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development, and this system
is likely to become a tropical depression by the end of this week
while it moves westward and then west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

[cycloneye]

INVEST 96E is up

[Ntxw]

Though later than usual, the second storm of the season continues the streak of the EPAC producing Cat 4s left and right with ease. Blas being the latest.



That would be 15 Cat 4 storms since 2014 if you include the cPAC

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS has D-G systems.

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form by early next week
several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

11 AM PDT TWO:

An area of low pressure is expected to form by early next week
several hundred miles southwest of the coast of Mexico. Some
subsequent development of this system is possible while it moves
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Alyono]

would not surprise me if the EPAC produces 125-150 ACE units this month alone given the long trackers we are or will see

[gatorcane]

The EPAC looks to continue to crank out system after system