Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[Dean4Storms]

What is causing the waves to die right now? Shear doesn't seem too high and the SAL is thick but waves are still making it out of it. May be a dumb question but it has me scratching my head as I am not a MET.

A combination of pressure gradient this time of year which drives high trade winds which in turn carries SAL out into the Atlantic with the TW's.

[gatorcane]

Talk about a tale of two different worlds. The EPAC is moist and churning storm after storm. In fact latest GFS runs shows new storms being cranked out in the EPAC through the entire 384 hour run. Meanwhile the Atlantic is parched and dry with zero model support for anything anytime soon.

Just maybe the EPAC hyperactivity now might mean a lull come August giving the Atlantic its turn during the month we start seeing an uptick in the Atlantic?

[MGC]

Massive area of dry air is dominating the tropical Atlantic basin. Lets hope it stays this way for a few more months. I think best chances of anything forming in the Atlantic is along a stalled front along the East Coast perhaps......MGC

[psyclone]

Climo perspective is always worth remembering. the Atlantic basin is marginal for TC formation. the net effect is often a short, concentrated burst of activity. June, July and November are frequently dead. Freaking out over a dusty, dry Atlantic when climo says it's usually dusty and dry strikes me as nonsensical. We probably have another month to wait. 8-10. That's the date for me. That's when climo says to wake up. Right now we're warming up (literally). I'd be shocked if we don't have at least a few meaningful threats in the Aug-Oct timeframe. I'd be equally shocked if we have a decent threat before then. In the interim I'm expecting lots of sunny skies, tranquil sea states and season cancel posts.

[hurricanetrack]

One has to wonder, well at least I wonder, if all the activity in the east Pacific will mean cooler SSTs there as storm after storm churns up the water? If so, then the contrast between the east Pac and the western Atlantic Basin will be remarkable come September. Something to think about.

[srainhoutx]

The Tropical activity in the Pacific has led to some cooling of the sea surface temperatures suggesting the further decay of the Super El Nino as we transition toward a weak La Nina Global Hemispheric Pattern meaning less in the way of wind shear across the Atlantic Basin as peak season draws closer by the day.



Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue · 7h7 hours ago
Weekly change in SST nicely shows "Transequatorial Tropical Instability Waves" ... cooling in tropical EPAC

[ninel conde]

Talk about a tale of two different worlds. The EPAC is moist and churning storm after storm. In fact latest GFS runs shows new storms being cranked out in the EPAC through the entire 384 hour run. Meanwhile the Atlantic is parched and dry with zero model support for anything anytime soon.

Just maybe the EPAC hyperactivity now might mean a lull come August giving the Atlantic its turn during the month we start seeing an uptick in the Atlantic?

http://i.imgur.com/VKODnas.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/Kyu3BIf.jpg

means an awful lot of atlantic shear. i just dont see the gom/west carib as even marginally favorable this season.

[hurricanetrack]

I agree with ninel, the GOM/Caribbean won't be marginally favorable, they will be exceptionally favorable when the time comes. Right now, it is not time, everyone here should know that. If not, ask and someone will enlighten you.

[gatorcane]

Not the time true, but I do feel there are some residual "El Nino" effects out there. For example, the warmer than normal waters north of the equator and south of Mexico in the EPAC is causing the EPAC to crank out storm after storm and is already above normal on ACE. Looking at the ECMWF medium to long-range guidance, it seems to bring back some cyclone-killing shear across the entire Caribbean (maybe due in part to the hyperactive EPAC at the moment). Also, it is so unbearably hot and dry across my area with a huge ridge that has parked over the region with an abundance of mid-level dry air which as pushed in from the Atlantic (mid-level dry air is what killed the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season) During El Nino years you can get these types of ridges across South Florida and the Caribbean. As was discussed extensively in the early pre-season threads, sometimes it is the second year after El Nino which is when the Atlantic becomes active, not the year right after. Not saying this is going to be the case for sure, but it is a possibility.

[WPBWeather]

Not the time true, but I do feel there are some residual "El Nino" effects out there. For example, the warmer than normal waters north of the equator and south of Mexico in the EPAC is causing the EPAC to crank out storm after storm and is already above normal on ACE. Looking at the ECMWF medium to long-range guidance, it seems to bring back some cyclone-killing shear across the entire Caribbean (maybe due in part to the hyperactive EPAC at the moment). Also, it is so unbearably hot and dry across my area with a huge ridge that has parked over the region with an abundance of mid-level dry air which as pushed in from the Atlantic (mid-level dry air is what killed the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season) During El Nino years you can get these types of ridges across South Florida and the Caribbean. As was discussed extensively in the early pre-season threads, sometimes it is the second year after El Nino which is when the Atlantic becomes active, not the year right after. Not saying this is going to be the case for sure, but it is a possibility.

You have interesting points here Gator. Timing is everything in life, right?

[NDG]

It cracks me seeing people already calling a season over in early July when it is normal to have dry air dominate the Atlantic basin.
These are the same people that think every year is either supposed to be like 2005 or 2013 lol.

[ninel conde]

It cracks me seeing people already calling a season over in early July when it is normal to have dry air dominate the Atlantic basin.
These are the same people that think every year is either supposed to be like 2005 or 2013 lol.

since when hasnt dry air dominated? hyperactice eastpac=dead atlantic. I just dont understand what people are seeing saying the gom or west carib will produce anything of interst.

[tolakram]

Ok, let's stop the back and forth, people are starting to argue and that is NOT what this thread is about. You all have stated your opinions, the season will provide us with the answers.

[Hammy]

This can be moved to the model thread if needed but I feel it can go here too: The GFS over the last few days has been very slowly thickening the ITCZ and developing almost-spinups, each time a tiny bit longer lasting than the previous run, and now appears to have some actual gyres form along it. The models have also been trending further north with the 500MB pressure anomalies, which is another indication of the monsoon trough moving north into a more favorable position. It would be unsurprising to go the rest of July without so much as a depression (the same happened in 2012 and 2004) but it would also be surprising with this trend not to see some development in the first week of August.

[SFLcane]

It cracks me seeing people already calling a season over in early July when it is normal to have dry air dominate the Atlantic basin.
These are the same people that think every year is either supposed to be like 2005 or 2013 lol.

since when hasnt dry air dominated? hyperactice eastpac=dead atlantic. I just dont understand what people are seeing saying the gom or west carib will produce anything of interst.

You still calling for season cancel? seriously! Its july 9 gimmie a break will ya we get it lets skip 2016. Saving your posts when activity picks in early august during the REAL season. Rather frustrating to here this time and time again when pro mets such as wxman57 and Alyono have clearly stated multiple times the storms are coming.

[Alyono]

some go on science. Others like to just use sound bites and try and pass them off as science.

Of course the Gulf will produce more storms this year. Thunderstorm complexes can easily develop into tropical storms or hurricanes. Also, a wave may not develop until it reaches the Gulf, just as we saw with Danielle this year. The Gulf has produced 2 storms, and some are STILL saying the Gulf will be dead? This despite every single analog showing major Gulf impacts, especially in August? That's soundbite meteorology, not science

[Steve]

It cracks me seeing people already calling a season over in early July when it is normal to have dry air dominate the Atlantic basin.
These are the same people that think every year is either supposed to be like 2005 or 2013 lol.

since when hasnt dry air dominated? hyperactice eastpac=dead atlantic. I just dont understand what people are seeing saying the gom or west carib will produce anything of interst.

Haha. Not buying that bs in July. You're working on some dry conditions in New England that should lead to both surface and mid level ridging as the overall pattern reverses mid-late August, then let's see what happens. You are a poster I like but you tend to look at features as semi-permanent and therefore put too much credence in status quo patterns imho. Bank on 3-4 more US hits this season of any named variety. If not, I'll be the first ************ on the end of season thread claiming I was wrong. Barring a massive Southern Hemisphere volcano interrupting this season, it's going to be as western biased season as we have seen in a while. I put a 50 bet to the site. No one took me up on it. 2 landfalls already and 3-4 to go. Anyone want a piece of that? No chance I'm going to lose that bet.

[ninel conde]

It cracks me seeing people already calling a season over in early July when it is normal to have dry air dominate the Atlantic basin.
These are the same people that think every year is either supposed to be like 2005 or 2013 lol.

since when hasnt dry air dominated? hyperactice eastpac=dead atlantic. I just dont understand what people are seeing saying the gom or west carib will produce anything of interst.

Haha. Not buying that bs in July. You're working on some dry conditions in New England that should lead to both surface and mid level ridging as the overall pattern reverses mid-late August, then let's see what happens. You are a poster I like but you tend to look at features as semi-permanent and therefore put too much credence in status quo patterns imho. Bank on 3-4 more US hits this season of any named variety. If not, I'll be the first ************ on the end of season thread claiming I was wrong. Barring a massive Southern Hemisphere volcano interrupting this season, it's going to be as western biased season as we have seen in a while. I put a 50 bet to the site. No one took me up on it. 2 landfalls already and 3-4 to go. Anyone want a piece of that? No chance I'm going to lose that bet.

More permanent than semi-permanent. Saw a great tweet from phil klotzbach. 1944-1953 14 canes hit florida. last 10 years zip, zero, nada and this should make year 11.

[ninel conde]

some go on science. Others like to just use sound bites and try and pass them off as science.

Of course the Gulf will produce more storms this year. Thunderstorm complexes can easily develop into tropical storms or hurricanes. Also, a wave may not develop until it reaches the Gulf, just as we saw with Danielle this year. The Gulf has produced 2 storms, and some are STILL saying the Gulf will be dead? This despite every single analog showing major Gulf impacts, especially in August? That's soundbite meteorology, not science

Yes, 2 slop storms which often happens in dead seasons. Lets wait and see when a well developed hurricane with a well defined center wrapped all the way around with convection can survive north of 25.

[Dean4Storms]

some go on science. Others like to just use sound bites and try and pass them off as science.

Of course the Gulf will produce more storms this year. Thunderstorm complexes can easily develop into tropical storms or hurricanes. Also, a wave may not develop until it reaches the Gulf, just as we saw with Danielle this year. The Gulf has produced 2 storms, and some are STILL saying the Gulf will be dead? This despite every single analog showing major Gulf impacts, especially in August? That's soundbite meteorology, not science

Yes, 2 slop storms which often happens in dead seasons. Lets wait and see when a well developed hurricane with a well defined center wrapped all the way around with convection can survive north of 25.

I guess you don't remember Andrew in 92 which did not come along until late Aug. as the conditions in the MDR that year and regions wide were completely dead from June until then. I'm not saying it is a similar pattern to that year but thinking there won't be a well defined hurricane this year making it north of 25N is a silly prospect given the overall possibilities of any given hurricane season!