Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[ninel conde]

Is normal in July.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/752265486230884352

I would say its dustier than normal mainly because the high is stronger and further south than normal

[stormwise]

Agree with cycloneye, looks the norm. It just nature doing it fertilizing job.

[Hammy]

Question to the pro-mets or others who may have more experience watching the seasonal model forecasts.

http://i.imgur.com/fDqLLxZ.png Shear forecast
http://i.imgur.com/RrhLrDA.png Rainfall forecast
http://i.imgur.com/NGDxMPw.png Pressure

Given the isobars indicate high pressure, and given below normal shear, would the rainfall and pressures more than likely indicate potential storm tracks next month rather than being trough-induced?

[SFLcane]

‏@BigJoeBastardi
JMA 3 month mean, esp Sept and Oct,big hurricane hit pattern 500 mb ridge! Ridge over eastern Can,look out below

[SFLcane]

‏@BigJoeBastardi Old timers would call 500 mb ridge in hurricane season over NW atl "newfoundland wheel" would direct storm track at US.

[Hurricaneman]

Based on the Japanese model for the peak of hurricane season the eastern GOM and Florida may have to keep an eye on this pattern possibility

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[ninel conde]

Lets hope the se canada low is replaced with the newfoundland wheel. of course several years ago JB got excited about it and it only lasted a few days and reverted back to the same old same old. We will see.

[Steve]

Lets hope the se canada low is replaced with the newfoundland wheel. of course several years ago JB got excited about it and it only lasted a few days and reverted back to the same old same old. We will see.

I know what you mean, but I'm certainly not going to be hoping for mid-level or upper-level blocking in the mid-Atlantic or Northeast US during the heart of the season.

[cycloneye]

Many for sure (Including me) will not like this. I see below normal shear in the subtropics so maybe the activity will be there.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/752539015203532800

[Ntxw]

At the same time cfsv2 has below normal shear in most of the Carib and BOC (southern gulf). I would look to there for development.

[cycloneye]

Dr Klotzbach didn't post the other side of MDR and as Ntxw said,looks good for development in the peak months.

[srainhoutx]

The CFSv2 also suggests lowering pressures across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico during the August, September and October timeframe.

[gatorcane]

Does anybody have any comparison data between this summer so far and previous summers on Bermuda High strength? The Bermuda High seems especially strong so far this summer (at least the last couple of weeks). Shower and thunderstorm activity across South Florida is consistently getting pushed well inland and to the SW coast of Florida each day. Looking at the ECMWF, that seems like quite a 500MB ridge in place through the next week at least:

[JaxGator]

It's a nice day to be at the beach right now along the East Coast from North Carolina to Florida and along the Gulf Coast as ocean temps are very warm. Mostly mid-80s-90 degrees. The shelf waters are also warm and the heat content is really deep and climbing still. Joe Bastardi mentioned this morning (and before) how systems initially coming from the east "could really crank" as they tapped into the fuel out there now.

[HURRICANELONNY]

I think it's pretty normal for the Bermuda High to be that dominant in July. I'm wondering how to get past years SAL images for July.

[JaxGator]

I think it's pretty normal for the Bermuda High to be that dominant in July. I'm wondering how to get past years SAL images for July.

It is dry out there for sure and it spans a large swath of the basin but according to hurricanetrack's youtube outlook, most of the really dry air is further north near the Med.

[ninel conde]

Dr Klotzbach didn't post the other side of MDR and as Ntxw said,looks good for development in the peak months.

Wont matter if nothing can survive to get to those areas and if a big east coast trof is firmly in place.. I think the east pac will dump alot of shear everywhere. Time will tell.

[ninel conde]

It's a nice day to be at the beach right now along the East Coast from North Carolina to Florida and along the Gulf Coast as ocean temps are very warm. Mostly mid-80s-90 degrees. The shelf waters are also warm and the heat content is really deep and climbing still. Joe Bastardi mentioned this morning (and before) how systems initially coming from the east "could really crank" as they tapped into the fuel out there now.

He says that most every year. SST's dont count for much if everything else is unfavorable

[ninel conde]

Many for sure (Including me) will not like this. I see below normal shear in the subtropics so maybe the activity will be there.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/752539015203532800

Very possible. early season slop storms followed by peak season subtropical activity is a classic el nino slow season. Its quite likely that TW's wont be able to survive the bone dry air and shear until they get way west. Good rule of thumb is if something isnt already well developed by the time it enters the carib its not going to do much till the east pac. So far, im not seeing anything to make me think florida will break its incredible streak or that the US as a whole will break its amazing non major streak

[Alyono]

more soundbites, Ninel. Furthermore, they are dead wrong

Danielle was NOT a slop system. It simply ran into land before the core became well established. It was fairly symmetric.

Second, if something is not organized by the time it reaches the east Caribbean, it won't until the EPAC. That is dead wrong. If what you said had any validity, we wouldn't see TROPICAL WAVES (such as what formed into Danielle last month and Bill last year) start organizing in the western Caribbean and develop in the Gulf. Now, maybe pre university geography in Indo is not the same as here... but I am sure that the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are not part of the Eastern Pacific