2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Not buying the latest 00z Euro run, GFS does not show it.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/751370512681541636

[gatorcane]

Is it me or is the CMC model not spinning up as many phantom storms this year? Seems to have improved from recent years at least so far

[weathaguyry]

Could this be something off the east coast?

[weathaguyry]

Possibly similar to the phantom storm that it was showing a few weeks back

[MetroMike]

Is it me or is the CMC model not spinning up as many phantom storms this year? Seems to have improved from recent years at least so far

Seems like the CMC picked up on the pattern of the Pacific cyclone (s) before the GFS did. I concur with your statement.

[Hammy]

Is it me or is the CMC model not spinning up as many phantom storms this year? Seems to have improved from recent years at least so far

Seems like the CMC picked up on the pattern of the Pacific cyclone (s) before the GFS did. I concur with your statement.

It definitely seems to have improved, it was the most accurate in picking up Bonnie and Colin earlier than any of the others as well.

[ninel conde]

East pac conga line continues.

[floridasun78]

East pac conga line continues.

very active west of Mexico look more El Niño season

[Hammy]

GFS showing a somewhat more defined wave than we've been seeing in the runs arriving in the western third of the Atlantic near the end of the month, which would fall in line with what the CFS has been showing for weeks.

[xcool22]

East pac conga line continues.

very active west of Mexico look more El Niño season

i agree. does not make sense

[JaxGator]

GFS showing a somewhat more defined wave than we've been seeing in the runs arriving in the western third of the Atlantic near the end of the month, which would fall in line with what the CFS has been showing for weeks.

Definitely persistent. Is this the same system that hits Florida or does the steering vary between runs?

[Alyono]

East pac conga line continues.

very active west of Mexico look more El Niño season

i agree. does not make sense

always expected this year

[Yellow Evan]

East pac conga line continues.

very active west of Mexico look more El Niño season

i agree. does not make sense

Happens every year, especially in July and August, and especially during +PDO. ENSO isn't everything.

[WeatherEmperor]

Alyono,

I remember you mentioning this pre-season. While La Nina looks to establish at the equator the waters above the equator or the Epac MDR specifically are very warm. This should lead to increased Epac activity. This is why my numbers for the Atlantic season are normal activity. I an not sure why many are so surprised with whats happening in the Epac now. If this will shut down the Atlantic remains to be seen

very active west of Mexico look more El Niño season

i agree. does not make sense

always expected this year

[tarheelprogrammer]

Alyono,

I remember you mentioning this pre-season. While La Nina looks to establish at the equator the waters above the equator or the Epac MDR specifically are very warm. This should lead to increased Epac activity. This is why my numbers for the Atlantic season are normal activity. I an not sure why many are so surprised with whats happening in the Epac now. If this will shut down the Atlantic remains to be seen

i agree. does not make sense

always expected this year

It is why I lowered my expectations to 10/3/1. If the activity continues to stay close to the Mexican coast it should create shear in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico correct? Are the models ending the Pacific spin ups in the late range?

[WPBWeather]

Alyono,

I remember you mentioning this pre-season. While La Nina looks to establish at the equator the waters above the equator or the Epac MDR specifically are very warm. This should lead to increased Epac activity. This is why my numbers for the Atlantic season are normal activity. I an not sure why many are so surprised with whats happening in the Epac now. If this will shut down the Atlantic remains to be seen

always expected this year

It is why I lowered my expectations to 10/3/1. If the activity continues to stay close to the Mexican coast it should create shear in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico correct? Are the models ending the Pacific spin ups in the late range?

Hope you are right, but it's only a guess at this point. Nothing in the posts you quote change that fact.

[JaxGator]

Alyono,

I remember you mentioning this pre-season. While La Nina looks to establish at the equator the waters above the equator or the Epac MDR specifically are very warm. This should lead to increased Epac activity. This is why my numbers for the Atlantic season are normal activity. I an not sure why many are so surprised with whats happening in the Epac now. If this will shut down the Atlantic remains to be seen

always expected this year

It is why I lowered my expectations to 10/3/1. If the activity continues to stay close to the Mexican coast it should create shear in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico correct? Are the models ending the Pacific spin ups in the late range?

Wouldn't all this activity in the E-Pac cause upwelling and the basin would cool? At least in the area where they're forming and tracking over?

[SeGaBob]

Tarheelprogrammer you can't lower your numbers... you already posted them and have to stick with them like everyone else. I bet we'll make it up in August and September. July isn't supposed to be very active...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Tarheelprogrammer you can't lower your numbers... you already posted them and have to stick with them like everyone else. I bet we'll make it up in August and September. July isn't supposed to be very active...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Sadly I know just wanted to state it as an update.

In other news
The new GFS run continues to show stronger and stronger waves coming off Africa. The wave in the last part of the run looks to organize into a system. The only problem is shear is extremely high in the Caribbean. If that sounds familiar it should. GFS showing shear as high as 50+ knots. Seems like dry air will not be as bad for the system I speak of but out ahead of it conditions look downright horrible.

[WPBWeather]

Tarheelprogrammer you can't lower your numbers... you already posted them and have to stick with them like everyone else. I bet we'll make it up in August and September. July isn't supposed to be very active...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Sadly I know just wanted to state it as an update.

In other news
The new GFS run continues to show stronger and stronger waves coming off Africa. The wave in the last part of the run looks to organize into a system. The only problem is shear is extremely high in the Caribbean. If that sounds familiar it should. GFS showing shear as high as 50+ knots. Seems like dry air will not be as bad for the system I speak of but out ahead of it conditions look downright horrible.

Are you sure about the shear? It can drop at a moments notice. The predictive shear models are not very accurate if you try to use them in the long range.