Seasonal Indicators (Beyond Day 16): Instability / SST's / MSLP / Steering / Sal

[JaxGator]

It's a nice day to be at the beach right now along the East Coast from North Carolina to Florida and along the Gulf Coast as ocean temps are very warm. Mostly mid-80s-90 degrees. The shelf waters are also warm and the heat content is really deep and climbing still. Joe Bastardi mentioned this morning (and before) how systems initially coming from the east "could really crank" as they tapped into the fuel out there now.

He says that most every year. SST's dont count for much if everything else is unfavorable

Yes, it does depend on the shear. However, I would not let my guard down. Plus Joe's forecasts have been fairy accurate so far this season in terms on where this season's storms would form given the pre-existing conditions shown on the models and climatology.

[JaxGator]

more soundbites, Ninel. Furthermore, they are dead wrong

Danielle was NOT a slop system. It simply ran into land before the core became well established. It was fairly symmetric.

Second, if something is not organized by the time it reaches the east Caribbean, it won't until the EPAC. That is dead wrong. If what you said had any validity, we wouldn't see TROPICAL WAVES (such as what formed into Danielle last month and Bill last year) start organizing in the western Caribbean and develop in the Gulf. Now, maybe pre university geography in Indo is not the same as here... but I am sure that the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are not part of the Eastern Pacific

I agree Alyono, especially on Danielle.

[ninel conde]

more soundbites, Ninel. Furthermore, they are dead wrong

Danielle was NOT a slop system. It simply ran into land before the core became well established. It was fairly symmetric.

Second, if something is not organized by the time it reaches the east Caribbean, it won't until the EPAC. That is dead wrong. If what you said had any validity, we wouldn't see TROPICAL WAVES (such as what formed into Danielle last month and Bill last year) start organizing in the western Caribbean and develop in the Gulf. Now, maybe pre university geography in Indo is not the same as here... but I am sure that the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are not part of the Eastern Pacific

You could also say Danielle was helped by land interaction to look as good as it did. In any case bill last year was another example of the gom not able to produce a well developed hurricane north of 23 and this year if shear does indeed blast the atlantic with peak season subtropical activity it looks like a classic el nino season especially with so much east pac activity. We will see if any waves can survive the gauntlet and become well developed canes in the wes t carib or gom north of 25. I doubt it. Maybe we can get a gilbert or allen, maybe not. i guess not. In 2007 we had dean and felix cruise well south of the US, but the east pac had a well below normal season that year.
My only concern this season would be if another andrew would form. A wave that barely survives and then gets under a strong ridge past 65 west.

[Alyono]

more soundbites, Ninel. Furthermore, they are dead wrong

Danielle was NOT a slop system. It simply ran into land before the core became well established. It was fairly symmetric.

Second, if something is not organized by the time it reaches the east Caribbean, it won't until the EPAC. That is dead wrong. If what you said had any validity, we wouldn't see TROPICAL WAVES (such as what formed into Danielle last month and Bill last year) start organizing in the western Caribbean and develop in the Gulf. Now, maybe pre university geography in Indo is not the same as here... but I am sure that the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are not part of the Eastern Pacific

You could also say Danielle was helped by land interaction to look as good as it did. In any case bill last year was another example of the gom not able to produce a well developed hurricane north of 23 and this year if shear does indeed blast the atlantic with peak season subtropical activity it looks like a classic el nino season especially with so much east pac activity. We will see if any waves can survive the gauntlet and become well developed canes in the wes t carib or gom north of 25. I doubt it. Maybe we can get a gilbert or allen, maybe not. i guess not. In 2007 we had dean and felix cruise well south of the US, but the east pac had a well below normal season that year.
My only concern this season would be if another andrew would form. A wave that barely survives and then gets under a strong ridge past 65 west.

And what will you say if we get a thunderstorm complex that moves off of Louisiana and becomes a hurricane north of 25 in the Gulf. An Alicia or a Danny? You going to say that is just another slop storm because it didn't come from a wave? It wouldn't surprise me if you did

[TheStormExpert]

more soundbites, Ninel. Furthermore, they are dead wrong

Danielle was NOT a slop system. It simply ran into land before the core became well established. It was fairly symmetric.

Second, if something is not organized by the time it reaches the east Caribbean, it won't until the EPAC. That is dead wrong. If what you said had any validity, we wouldn't see TROPICAL WAVES (such as what formed into Danielle last month and Bill last year) start organizing in the western Caribbean and develop in the Gulf. Now, maybe pre university geography in Indo is not the same as here... but I am sure that the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are not part of the Eastern Pacific

You could also say Danielle was helped by land interaction to look as good as it did. In any case bill last year was another example of the gom not able to produce a well developed hurricane north of 23 and this year if shear does indeed blast the atlantic with peak season subtropical activity it looks like a classic el nino season especially with so much east pac activity. We will see if any waves can survive the gauntlet and become well developed canes in the wes t carib or gom north of 25. I doubt it. Maybe we can get a gilbert or allen, maybe not. i guess not. In 2007 we had dean and felix cruise well south of the US, but the east pac had a well below normal season that year.
My only concern this season would be if another andrew would form. A wave that barely survives and then gets under a strong ridge past 65 west.

This IS NOT an El Niño season, yes there are some residual effects from the record Strong El Niño but all indications are that we will go into an weak La Niña state come peak season.

Besides, it's only July 11th, what else do you expect the Atlantic to look like in nearly mid-July?

[Yellow Evan]

Besides, it's only July 11th, what else do you expect the Atlantic to look like in nearly mid-July?

This. The EPAC being busy especially in a +PDO year is no shock, and it peaks sooner than than the ATL, which is above average right now, with 4 storms.

[NDG]

Many for sure (Including me) will not like this. I see below normal shear in the subtropics so maybe the activity will be there.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/752539015203532800

The interesting thing is that if we brake it down by month, something Dr Phil K does not point out, the only month that looks really bad for the Cape Verde storms is October which things start dying by then any how.
UL conditions look really good from the Leeward Islands on westward August through October, points east of it it looks to be more of an easterly shear by looking at the forecasted wind vectors which sometimes is not as damaging for tropical systems.

[stormwise]

[ninel conde]

more soundbites, Ninel. Furthermore, they are dead wrong

Danielle was NOT a slop system. It simply ran into land before the core became well established. It was fairly symmetric.

Second, if something is not organized by the time it reaches the east Caribbean, it won't until the EPAC. That is dead wrong. If what you said had any validity, we wouldn't see TROPICAL WAVES (such as what formed into Danielle last month and Bill last year) start organizing in the western Caribbean and develop in the Gulf. Now, maybe pre university geography in Indo is not the same as here... but I am sure that the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are not part of the Eastern Pacific

You could also say Danielle was helped by land interaction to look as good as it did. In any case bill last year was another example of the gom not able to produce a well developed hurricane north of 23 and this year if shear does indeed blast the atlantic with peak season subtropical activity it looks like a classic el nino season especially with so much east pac activity. We will see if any waves can survive the gauntlet and become well developed canes in the wes t carib or gom north of 25. I doubt it. Maybe we can get a gilbert or allen, maybe not. i guess not. In 2007 we had dean and felix cruise well south of the US, but the east pac had a well below normal season that year.
My only concern this season would be if another andrew would form. A wave that barely survives and then gets under a strong ridge past 65 west.

And what will you say if we get a thunderstorm complex that moves off of Louisiana and becomes a hurricane north of 25 in the Gulf. An Alicia or a Danny? You going to say that is just another slop storm because it didn't come from a wave? It wouldn't surprise me if you did

Anything is possible. However, that would simply be another indication of an otherwise slow season as 1994 and 1983 were other wise VERY slow overall so if we do get a danny or alicia i would have to guess the season would feature little else.

[ninel conde]

more soundbites, Ninel. Furthermore, they are dead wrong

Danielle was NOT a slop system. It simply ran into land before the core became well established. It was fairly symmetric.

Second, if something is not organized by the time it reaches the east Caribbean, it won't until the EPAC. That is dead wrong. If what you said had any validity, we wouldn't see TROPICAL WAVES (such as what formed into Danielle last month and Bill last year) start organizing in the western Caribbean and develop in the Gulf. Now, maybe pre university geography in Indo is not the same as here... but I am sure that the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico are not part of the Eastern Pacific

You could also say Danielle was helped by land interaction to look as good as it did. In any case bill last year was another example of the gom not able to produce a well developed hurricane north of 23 and this year if shear does indeed blast the atlantic with peak season subtropical activity it looks like a classic el nino season especially with so much east pac activity. We will see if any waves can survive the gauntlet and become well developed canes in the wes t carib or gom north of 25. I doubt it. Maybe we can get a gilbert or allen, maybe not. i guess not. In 2007 we had dean and felix cruise well south of the US, but the east pac had a well below normal season that year.
My only concern this season would be if another andrew would form. A wave that barely survives and then gets under a strong ridge past 65 west.

This IS NOT an El Niño season, yes there are some residual effects from the record Strong El Niño but all indications are that we will go into an weak La Niña state come peak season.

Besides, it's only July 11th, what else do you expect the Atlantic to look like in nearly mid-July?

You bring up a very good point. The large majority of July's even in interesting seasons can have little or no activity. What I DO look for however are strong waves and convection in the deep tropics in July. That is non-existent this season just as it was last season. cloudless and bone dry. My guess is this will also be like last season where a few struggling storms form well east, then die out over open water.

[ninel conde]

Showing alot of east coast trofiness. same old same old.

[stormwise]

Do you want to known as the Grinch who tried to steal the 2016 Hurricane season.

[Alyono]

Those CFS charts are showing an active Gulf

[Big O]

https://i.imgsafe.org/465a24f95f.png

Showing alot of east coast trofiness. same old same old.

Cue police officer with bullhorn: "There is nothing to see here [GOM]."

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS hinting that super long range will become less of a Pacific show and more of an Atlantic one. We shall see. The GFS does have some model support the CFS.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/752862997161402372

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/752850521300410368

[WPBWeather]

https://i.imgsafe.org/465a24f95f.png

Showing alot of east coast trofiness. same old same old.

Nope. But your comments are.

[chaser1]

Some pretty significant changes to the 500mb flow are indicated in the long range. Not suggesting an abrupt and immediate change to the long wave pattern but there certainly are some very significant changes to the retreating westerlies over the CONUS and Eastern Seaboard, and appearant shift of high pressure from south of the Four Corners region to an eventual sprawling N. Plains Omega block. Interestingly, rather than a fairly sharp N to S angled ridge with deep troughs digging on each side, there seems to far less southern amplitude to the long range East coast trough. N. Atlantic 594mb centers appear to be setting up nicely and despite East coast ridging heights that continue to pulsate due to some continued troughiness around New England, the overall picture indicates increasing height rises; both from the N. Atlantic and to a lessor degree over the general Greater Antilles and Caribbean. All of this doesnt suggest an awful lot other than 1) its nearing August 1, and 2) there's little to indicate any effects from last year's El Nino (or from 1982 for that matter lol). Point being, we can talk on and on how the upper pattern and adverse conditions "have looked" but end of July to early August typically evolve into whatever the real Atlantic Hurricane season will become. Now potentially add in whatever broadscale impact that a potential La Nina might cause by September/October, and I think its rational to believe that as we approach August, the continually updating mid to long range mid level and upper air forecasts should prove a good deal more insightful to steering and upper level shear. Present conditions coupled with hindsight often do indicate a certain persistance in weather patterns.... right up to some point when conditions change. I think MDR development, longer tracking and stronger storms, and Caribbean and/or Gulf development would qualify for an indication of those changes.

[PTrackerLA]

I'm curious to see if there's any correlation with the Epac possibly threatening the record of 7 named storms in July (1985) and upcoming Atlantic activity. As we all know 1985 was a high impact year for the USA with six hurricane landfalls. 1985 also got off to somewhat of a slow start as well.