2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[ninel conde]

Euro going the wrong way if you are looking for things to get active. higher than normal pressures and the se canada low isnt budging just yet. There was alot of talk about how the ridge was going to expand north which would relax pressures in the deep tropics and it appeared for a few model runs that might happen. the run today shows once again the jet stream diving south through the mid atlantic states. Need to see a positive NAO so the ridge can head north. NegNAO will just force the ridge south and raise pressures in the deep tropics.

[Yellow Evan]

EPs showing zlich, and neither is the GEFS tbh.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro going the wrong way if you are looking for things to get active. higher than normal pressures and the se canada low isnt budging just yet. There was alot of talk about how the ridge was going to expand north which would relax pressures in the deep tropics and it appeared for a few model runs that might happen. the run today shows once again the jet stream diving south through the mid atlantic states. Need to see a positive NAO so the ridge can head north. NegNAO will just force the ridge south and raise pressures in the deep tropics.

The NAO is currently negative for the next few days followed by it going neutral to slightly positive for the foreseeable future.

By the way, your image isn't showing up.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Shear still being predicted to be quite high across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

The pattern will have to change soon or it will miss the heart of the season.

[Yellow Evan]

16 days out is still July 28. Still 2-3 weeks away from the real hurricane season though

[ninel conde]

Shear still being predicted to be quite high across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

The pattern will have to change soon or it will miss the heart of the season.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_53.png

It might let up if the east pac gets quiet.

[ninel conde]

Euro going the wrong way if you are looking for things to get active. higher than normal pressures and the se canada low isnt budging just yet. There was alot of talk about how the ridge was going to expand north which would relax pressures in the deep tropics and it appeared for a few model runs that might happen. the run today shows once again the jet stream diving south through the mid atlantic states. Need to see a positive NAO so the ridge can head north. NegNAO will just force the ridge south and raise pressures in the deep tropics.

The NAO is currently negative for the next few days followed by it going neutral to slightly positive for the foreseeable future.

By the way, your image isn't showing up.

I put it in wrong, thanks

[Bocadude85]

Shear still being predicted to be quite high across the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico.

The pattern will have to change soon or it will miss the heart of the season.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_53.png

I would not put much faith in a 16 day shear forecast. These shear forecast are often horribly wrong in the short term, so you can imagine how bad they are in the long range.

[OuterBanker]

I know everyone is concentrating on the atlantic. But I see a compact hurricane heading to the big island.

[Hammy]

GFS has a small TS forming possibly as early as next Wednesday at about 50W on the 00Z run--let's see if the other models have some hint of something as well and if it shows up in other runs over the next few days.

http://i.imgur.com/juAr599.png small but closed.
http://i.imgur.com/RyEtSx0.png even closed on 850MB with very tight vorticity.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS has a small TS forming possibly as early as next Wednesday at about 50W on the 00Z run--let's see if the other models have some hint of something as well and if it shows up in other runs over the next few days.

http://i.imgur.com/juAr599.png small but closed.
http://i.imgur.com/RyEtSx0.png even closed on 850MB with very tight vorticity.

It hits Haiti and almost dies then slowly creeps up the east coast of Florida. Probably a bad run and the storm will disappear.

[Hammy]

GFS has a small TS forming possibly as early as next Wednesday at about 50W on the 00Z run--let's see if the other models have some hint of something as well and if it shows up in other runs over the next few days.

http://i.imgur.com/juAr599.png small but closed.
http://i.imgur.com/RyEtSx0.png even closed on 850MB with very tight vorticity.

It hits Haiti and almost dies the slowly creeps up the east coast of Florida. Probably a bad run and the storm will disappear.

I doubt it's a bad run, this is the storm the CFS has been showing for about the last month or so, and the timing matches up. We're now within range of that system should it actually form.

[Siker]

It's a very small system, the resolution loss past 240 hours on the GFS does it no favors. Ends up off the Southeast coast at the end of the run as a weak storm.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS has a small TS forming possibly as early as next Wednesday at about 50W on the 00Z run--let's see if the other models have some hint of something as well and if it shows up in other runs over the next few days.

http://i.imgur.com/juAr599.png small but closed.
http://i.imgur.com/RyEtSx0.png even closed on 850MB with very tight vorticity.

It hits Haiti and almost dies then slowly creeps up the east coast of Florida. Probably a bad run and the storm will disappear.

Not a bad run, but most likely a storm like this would just die in the E Caribbean, if not get killed by Hispaniola and not regenerate.

[tarheelprogrammer]

CMC shows nothing and if ECMWF shows nothing it is probably the GFS up to its old phantom storm tricks.

[TheStormExpert]

A good analog storm to the short-lived storm the 00z GFS is showing would coincidentally be TS Earl(2004). Of course things will change.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_Storm_Earl_(2004)

This is also the same tropical wave yesterday's 06z GFS had developing into a storm as it headed into the Southern GoM.

[chaser1]

Euro going the wrong way if you are looking for things to get active. higher than normal pressures and the se canada low isnt budging just yet. There was alot of talk about how the ridge was going to expand north which would relax pressures in the deep tropics and it appeared for a few model runs that might happen. the run today shows once again the jet stream diving south through the mid atlantic states. Need to see a positive NAO so the ridge can head north. NegNAO will just force the ridge south and raise pressures in the deep tropics.

Euro going the wrong way if you are looking for things to get active. higher than normal pressures and the se canada low isnt budging just yet. There was alot of talk about how the ridge was going to expand north which would relax pressures in the deep tropics and it appeared for a few model runs that might happen. the run today shows once again the jet stream diving south through the mid atlantic states. Need to see a positive NAO so the ridge can head north. NegNAO will just force the ridge south and raise pressures in the deep tropics.

Ninel, A light bulb just went off and it occurred to me that you're just misunderstood. Unfortunately, I dont really understand you either. You say, "Euro going the wrong way if you are looking for things to get active". So, lets be specific here and NOT discuss diving East Coast Jet Streams in the same paragraph as NAO's, AMO's, PDO's, AO's, PNA's, MRE's, BLT's, or Meals on Wheels. Lets discuss East Coast troughs and diving Jet Streams.
First, I am providing a link for the present (7/12) 12Z EURO "analysis" run for 500mb Heights and Anomoly:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016071212&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0

Okay, and here is a comparative 240 hr forecast from the same EURO 12Z run:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2016071212&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=0

I don't see the diving jet stream through the mid Atlantic states. Could you point it out for me?

Now, you keep making references to some S.E. Canada low and I suppose its impact with regard to how it will impact whether hurricanes will hit land? The U.S. maybe?? Firstly, where exactly is this low and does it ever move? Secondly, I developed a fun game called "Lets Pretend", well.... mostly because games are fun! "Lets Pretend" that a Cat. 2 Hurricane were located at 20N & 60W. Now, using the more detailed GFS and looking at the general steering 500mb level flow, and starting with the new 7/13 0Z run, lets see where a Cat. 2 hurricane would go. In my game of "Lets Pretend", I figured we'll see whether this hurricane will simply "hit land" or end up "as a fish" and be yanked Northward without hitting land. Finally, I chose to simplify this slightly and make our observation every 12 hours. Well, within the GFS 384 hour forecasts there are 33 measurements (if including the initial 0Z run). According to my own observation, I counted 12 possible or likely recurves but that somehow left 21 "will impact land" scenario's. I'd be curious if your own analysis of this exercise shows way different results. So, here's the rub... assuming that a hurricane located at 20N and 60W existed during the upcoming 10 days, it seems that any number of places are likely to get creamed. By the way, just for fun I tried the same exercise with a hurricane at 15N and 50W but the results were even worse. Oh and trust me on this one, I was amazed to see how little a hurricane in the Central Caribbean or Gulf would be steered clear of any land mass either.

You mention how "there was a lot of talk about the ridge expanding north, thus allowing pressures to relax in the deep tropics". A lot of talk from who specifically? Exactly which ridge are YOU talking about? How "relaxed" do you believe pressures in the tropics need to be for a tropical storm to form? I know that I've recently stated that 500mb heights will expand over the U.S. Plain states and build northward well north of the Great Lakes with time. Kinda looks like an Omega pattern setting up. Might this lower downstream surface pressures anywhere over the Caribbean or W. Atlantic? Looking over the EURO model's projected surface pressure forecasts, it appears that below normal anomolies will occur in the far East tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, it does appear that any forming Tropical system may have to form in a 1016mb pressure field. I dont think it is unreasonable for tropical systems to form in a 1016mb field, do you?

Okay, help me understand your thinking about all of these global "acronyms". I understand the theoretical science behind each of them, just like I understand El Nino - bad for Atlantic hurricane season. So, when you say "Need to see a positive NAO so the ridge can head north. NegNAO will just force the ridge south and raise pressures in the deep tropics", i'm not sure exactly what your point is. Are you suggesting that if these bad acronyms do as you are assuming, that:

1) Very few tropical storms will even form?
2) Those storms that do form, will mostly be very weak?
3) That you would happily leave your family on some floating barge anywhere in the Gulf or Caribbean because YOU KNOW that they'd be guaranteed safe this season?
4) That you would stake your reputation, heck... bet all of your worldly possessions that no U.S.,Greater Antilles, or Lesser Antilles coastline and their population will be hit by a hurricane?

Bottom line is, that I think we're on the same page regarding an awareness that varying atmospheric conditions in both high and lower latitudes, and including high pressure ridges and troughs DO impact tropical genesis. I agree completely that storm tracks and origins of tropical systems can be impacted by these large scale atmospheric features too. Where i'm most confused however, is how you see these factors somehow magically turning all tropical lows into rainbows and unicorns, and how these same atmospheric acronyms will now practically shield EVERYONE from any hurricane landfall, or even Puff The Magic Dragon for that matter. It just sounds like a person who just learned about cloud seeding who then decides he better tell everyone that he absolutely knows they should immediately build an ark.

One final note to this friendly discussion. I'm pretty sure that if you took a preseason survey of each Storm2K Member and asked if they'd bet their bottom dollar that a tropical storm WILL form during July, that the vast majority would simply say "NO". We both know that July pressures are typically higher in the Atlantic. We also both know that the Saharan dust layer is typically at its worse, causing impact on lapse rates, overall relative humidity, and just basically drying out a good deal of the tropics primarily during July. So, if we surveyed everyone again right now I think there will be a few individuals (myself included perhaps) who might bet on 1 new tropical storm developing by Aug. 1, but most would probably not. Regardless if a storm does or does not form by Aug. 1, do you realize that your comments seem to imply that you are positive of how the next 4 months of the Atlantic hurricane season will play out, based on:

1) what was in the past
2) the conditions you presently see (or perceive)
3) The limitation of a 10 day outlook by the EURO model, that does NOT even address what conditions might exist on July 28, much less for late August, September, or October.
4) A belief that macro & even micro scale weather features and conditions, are practically all based on persistence alone - an attitude of "nothing will change until it does, but it probably wont".

Maybe if you just clarified your statements a little? Because if you began or ended with something like "... will not occur over the next couple of weeks" or "no way anything develops until 1012 pressures reach the Northern Carib..." well, most would follow that line of reasoning. Others may agree or disagree but at least your point becomes a bit more rational and concise. Otherwise, legitimate observations on your part will simply be devalued because of sounding like some soundbite cliche or an overly broad brushstroke generalization which will never be close to fully accurate, and worse imply a bombastic close minded attitude unable to see the forest for the trees.

[ninel conde]

Dont have time to reply to all of that but all you needto do is watch TWC and its rather clear the jet stream is going to cut rigth thru the mid atlantic after a few days of being further north.



As far as the se canada low of course it moves, though its been dominant for years now. In that picture its in the NW atlantic and its quite easy to see the trof its creating down the coast that would steer anything well east. Thats why JB gets so excited about the newfoundland wheel because if you replace that low with a locked in ridge the entire US is vulnerable to a landfall.



Here you can clearly see that the high over greenland has weakened allowing the atlantic high to build north and begin to replace the low that is now over the NW atlantic. the problem is for a few days the high begins to build north then the pattern reverts back to a neg nao. Lets see if that high can lock in for months, not a few days. Of course the other problem it still shows is well above normal pressure in the deep tropics. All that nice solid green over the eastpac compared to practically none from africa to mexico.

[NDG]

I am expecting little by little the models start showing possible activity over the Atlantic over the next few days like last night's GFS run.

[RL3AO]

It's a very small system, the resolution loss past 240 hours on the GFS does it no favors. Ends up off the Southeast coast at the end of the run as a weak storm.

To be fair, the resolution beyond 240 hours in the same resolution for days 1 to 10 before this May.