2016 EPAC Season

[Alyono]

the formation latitude is shifting to the south, which allows the subsequent storms to avoid the cool water

[Ntxw]

EPAC is already at 40 ACE units. I think it's safe to say an inactive season is not likely to happen ACE wise as some feared with La Nina (which is turning out to be pretty much La Nada). Turns out disregarding the near record +PDO proved to be not so smart. To say this is all kelvin wave/MJO induced is not telling the full story either.

[gatorcane]

The waters north of the equator and south of Mexico where the outbreak is taking place were much warmer than normal going into the EPAC season, residual warmth from last year's Godzilla El Nino. So while there is no El Niño technically, it is basically like there is an El Niño still as far as EPAC activity.

[Yellow Evan]

The waters north of the equator and south of Mexico where the outbreak is taking place were much warmer than normal going into the EPAC season, residual warmth from last year's Godzilla El Nino. So while there is no El Niño technically, it is basically like there is an El Niño still as far as EPAC activity.

Seems to be more +PDO induced given than anything, given that the La Nina emerged from the east.

[Kingarabian]

The warm waters above the equator IMO are above average because of the left over energy from the El Nino.

The lower than average shear is from the PDO.

[NDG]

I on the other hand I am not too impressed with the EPAC season so far, compared to last year. Yes, 3 named storms so far this month but only one has been able to become a major hurricane, by this time last year tomorrow the 3rd Cat 4 Hurricane of the season had formed. So clearly conditions are not as great as last year. Statistically late starting seasons over the EPAC end up near average to below average, if memory serves correct by a tweet by Dr Phil K. a few weeks ago.
While July has been and looks to continue to be like a cyclone assembly line, I still see that things will calm down over that basin later this month and or into August by the latest CFSv2 forecast as shown below:

[Yellow Evan]

I on the other hand I am not too impressed with the EPAC season so far, compared to last year. Yes, 3 named storms so far this month but only one has been able to become a major hurricane, by this time last year tomorrow the 3rd Cat 4 Hurricane of the season had formed. So clearly conditions are not as great as last year.

Given that 2015 was the 2nd most active season on record, that isn't saying too much, however. FYI, we if you cunt Pali have 5 storms and 4 of those 5 have become hurricanes and there's a good chance we get another major or two this month.

Nevertheless, I agree they'll be some sort of calming before too long. To what degree, I'm not sure.

[NDG]

I on the other hand I am not too impressed with the EPAC season so far, compared to last year. Yes, 3 named storms so far this month but only one has been able to become a major hurricane, by this time last year tomorrow the 3rd Cat 4 Hurricane of the season had formed. So clearly conditions are not as great as last year.

Given that 2015 was the 2nd most active season on record, that isn't saying too much, however. FYI, we if you cunt Pali have 5 storms and 4 of those 5 have become hurricanes and there's a good chance we get another major or two this month.

Nevertheless, I agree they'll be some sort of calming before too long. To what degree, I'm not sure.

Why would you count Pali, it was in January and well SW of Hawaii when El Nino was still raging?

[Yellow Evan]

I on the other hand I am not too impressed with the EPAC season so far, compared to last year. Yes, 3 named storms so far this month but only one has been able to become a major hurricane, by this time last year tomorrow the 3rd Cat 4 Hurricane of the season had formed. So clearly conditions are not as great as last year.

Given that 2015 was the 2nd most active season on record, that isn't saying too much, however. FYI, we if you cunt Pali have 5 storms and 4 of those 5 have become hurricanes and there's a good chance we get another major or two this month.

Nevertheless, I agree they'll be some sort of calming before too long. To what degree, I'm not sure.

Why would you count Pali, it was in January and well SW of Hawaii when El Nino was still raging?

That's what goes in HURDAT.

[dexterlabio]

EPAC is impressive in a way IMO, as many people suggesting La Nina this year expect this basin will be bone dry. If I want to compare apples to apples, I would rather see the previous stats of post-El Nino years, like 1998, 2007, 2010... To note, 1998 was slightly below average in terms in TC numbers, but it produced above average number of major hurricanes... the fact that there was a moderate to strong La Nina going on.. What more if La Nina fails to develop this year?

[Yellow Evan]

EPAC is impressive in a way IMO, as many people suggesting La Nina this year expect this basin will be bone dry. If I want to compare apples to apples, I would rather see the previous stats of post-El Nino years, like 1998, 2007, 2010... To note, 1998 was slightly below average in terms in TC numbers, but it produced above average number of major hurricanes... the fact that there was a moderate to strong La Nina going on.. What more if La Nina fails to develop this year?

Long term trend is -PDO seasons after El Ninos tend to be quiet (2003, 2007, 2010, while +PDO seasons after El Nino tend to be at least average (1988), sometimes record breaking (1983, 1992).

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/753761687694561280

[cycloneye]

A new area.Maybe the last one of this outbreak of systems?

An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
the coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system
while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Yellow Evan]

An area of low pressure is expected to form well southwest of
the coast of Mexico early next week. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this system
while it moves slowly west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[Kingarabian]

GFS showing Frank and one more.

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form over the next few days, and some gradual
development is possible by the middle of next week while this
system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form over the next few days, and some gradual
development is possible by the middle of next week while this
system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

An area of disturbed weather is located several hundred miles south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form over the next few days, and some gradual
development is possible by the middle of next week while this
system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

In a few days, another area of low pressure is likely to form south
of Mexico to the east of the disturbance detailed above. Some
gradual development of this system is possible by the middle of
next week while the system moves west-northwestward at about 10
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
later this week while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec in a few days. Some gradual development of this
system is possible by the middle of the week while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and a few
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
later this week while it moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

An area of low pressure is expected to form well south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for development by mid-week, and a tropical
depression could form by late this week while it moves west-
northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent