2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[tarheelprogrammer]

Humm, interesting. It is July after all so dust outbreaks are not unusual but as cool it would be to have a storm in July, I'm glad we don't have to worry about one harming anybody.

Very true and Jim Cantore mentioned on twitter a while ago that even for July the dry and stable air is impressive.

[WPBWeather]

Humm, interesting. It is July after all so dust outbreaks are not unusual but as cool it would be to have a storm in July, I'm glad we don't have to worry about one harming anybody.

Very true and Jim Cantore mentioned on twitter a while ago that even for July the dry and stable air is impressive.

Not to argue with JC, the July ATL Basin has been a lot drier and more stable in recent past years.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Humm, interesting. It is July after all so dust outbreaks are not unusual but as cool it would be to have a storm in July, I'm glad we don't have to worry about one harming anybody.

Very true and Jim Cantore mentioned on twitter a while ago that even for July the dry and stable air is impressive.

Not to argue with JC, the July ATL Basin has been a lot drier and more stable in recent past years.

True but I think dry air could be the downfall this season. For awhile now it is either dry air or shear or both. Good news for us beach communities but bad news if you want to track Atlantic hurricanes.

[TexasStorm]

A lot of small stuff popping up in between the Yucatan and Cuba today. More active than it has been in recent days.

[RL3AO]

Looking better over Africa compared to a week or two ago. The wave in West Africa looks quite good. Models have the circulation falling apart in the Central Atlantic, but still worth following.

[JaxGator]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_24.gif

Here it is with a 1012 low on the GFS though it would show up better on Levi's site.

[RL3AO]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_24.gif

Here it is with a 1012 low on the GFS though it would show up better on Levi's site.

Thats the very large wave ahead of it over the CVI.

[JaxGator]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_24.gif

Here it is with a 1012 low on the GFS though it would show up better on Levi's site.

Thats the very large wave ahead of it over the CVI.
http://i.imgur.com/kIuUJhk.jpg

Thanks.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS showing the EPAC slowing down and pressures lowering in the late range. Waves keep dying still but it should help moisten the atmosphere for waves behind them. Could the pattern be on the verge of change here in a few weeks? Shear is almost non-existent across the Atlantic and plenty of warm water. Dry air is the only issue for wannabe TCs.

[TheAustinMan]

GFS showing the EPAC slowing down and pressures lowering in the late range. Waves keep dying still but it should help moisten the atmosphere for waves behind them. Could the pattern be on the verge of change here in a few weeks? Shear is almost non-existent across the Atlantic and plenty of warm water. Dry air is the only issue for wannabe TCs.

GFS has shown a slight slowdown in the past few runs (with a dramatic slowdown coming in the 18Z run), but I'd wait and see how and if the Eastern Pacific transitions. Other global models still show a fair amount of activity in the EPac and pressures more or less neutral in the Atlantic. We're heading into August soon, though, so as always it'd be wise to continue monitoring the basins for pattern shifts.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models have been hinting now at waves in the long range starting to survive further and further west. Atlantic may finally wake up in a few weeks. We shall see.

[floridasun78]

Looking better over Africa compared to a week or two ago. The wave in West Africa looks quite good. Models have the circulation falling apart in the Central Atlantic, but still worth following.

this wave west Africa been track by miami weather office it may affect south fl as wave by late next week their talk about the one by leeward islands affection south fl by mon

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/753981533321650176

[tarheelprogrammer]

Still quiet on the models. It is so hostile on the models that even strong waves are not able to make it past 55W in most cases. Dry air may be the story this season. I thought by now at least some TCs would be showing or at least near spin ups but overall quiet heading into August. Good news for residents of the Eastern and Gulf of Mexico coasts.

[JaxGator]

Maybe but that can change at any time.

[chaser1]

Still quiet on the models. It is so hostile on the models that even strong waves are not able to make it past 55W in most cases. Dry air may be the story this season. I thought by now at least some TCs would be showing or at least near spin ups but overall quiet heading into August. Good news for residents of the Eastern and Gulf of Mexico coasts.

Well for one, dry air IS the story.... for now AND for July typically. That and higher pressures are common according to climo. Furthermore just as Jax alluded to (above), not only can things change but you'll know when its about too when all of a sudden after several days of nothing showing up on the models, the GFS suddenly pops up some low in the 3-7 day range... where there wasnt any in its recent prior runs. Just how it all happens. This from the NAVGEM - http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=640
is the 12Z 500mb height anomolies (at 144 hours), which shows some of the impressive height rises over the W. Atlantic and over Central U.S., and all just a piece of the slowly evolving pattern of typical Easterlies taking hold. No doubt, with the E. Atlantic wave train soon to begin, also comes a deep Easterly surge that will also impart easterly shear for the near term too. Higher July surface pressures will continue to supress much from occuring for a few days. Whether that changes on July 28 or August 3 is really inconsequential though, but its understandable how many of us might be eager to see signs of development. Point really is that if one were to hibernate and wake up on July 28 (random end of the month date), I'd be willing to bet that the overall picture will be starting to take on a whole new look. If not by looking at the satellite alone, than certainly by what the models "THEN" will likely be sniffing out.

[NDG]

Still quiet on the models. It is so hostile on the models that even strong waves are not able to make it past 55W in most cases. Dry air may be the story this season. I thought by now at least some TCs would be showing or at least near spin ups but overall quiet heading into August. Good news for residents of the Eastern and Gulf of Mexico coasts.

Nothing out of the ordinary when the first poleward strong tropical waves come out of Africa, these are the ones that start moistening the atmosphere.

[RL3AO]

Look at mid-level RH now compared to the 10 day forecast. Very significant changes.

ITCZ looks better in 10 days. Caribbean looks better in 10 days. 40% RH vs 20% RH is a big difference in the MDR as well.

[Blown Away]

A few of the latest GFS runs showing a nice wave/low moving across the Atlantic late in the run...

[JaxGator]

A few of the latest GFS runs showing a nice wave/low moving across the Atlantic late in the run...

Would that steering pattern be bad for the U.S. and the Islands?