EPAC: ESTELLE - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

Visible satellite images show that the tropical depression still
lacks inner-core convection, but several curved bands are noted
over the southwestern and northern portions of the large
circulation. Dvorak T-numbers were 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB,
and a recent ASCAT overpass revealed peak winds of 25 to 30 kt.
These data support an initial wind speed of 30 kt for this
advisory. The forecast track of the depression keeps it over sea
surface temperatures above 28C for the next couple of days, and the
upper-level environment is also favorable for strengthening.
Intensification is predicted, but it may be gradual through tonight
due to the depression's large size and lack of an inner core.
Steady strengthening is likely on Saturday and Sunday, and the
system is forecast to become a hurricane in about 48 hours, which is
in good agreement with the SHIPS guidance. In 3 to 4 days, the
forecast track takes the tropical cyclone over waters that have been
cooled by the past couple of hurricanes. This should result in a
leveling off of the intensity, followed by gradual weakening near
the end of the forecast period when the cyclone encounters even
cooler water.

The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/8 kt. There has
been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward for nearly all of
the forecast period to the southwest of a strong mid- to upper-level
ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The track
guidance remains in generally good agreement throughout the forecast
period. The NHC track has been nudged northward, primarily
due to a small northward relocation of the center, but otherwise
the new track forecast is essentially an update of the previous
advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 14.8N 107.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 15.3N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 15.7N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 16.1N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 16.5N 113.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.3N 116.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 18.0N 120.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 123.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

  15/2345 UTC   15.4N    107.8W       T2.5/2.5         06E -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  SIX         EP062016  07/16/16  00 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    35    40    45    50    56    64    76    80    85    85    86    81    75
V (KT) LAND       35    40    45    50    56    64    76    80    85    85    86    81    75
V (KT) LGEM       35    38    42    46    50    59    66    71    73    72    70    65    58
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11    11     9     8     8     8     5     7     4     7     3     8     7
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -4    -1    -1    -2     0     1     2    -2     1    -3     5     0     4
SHEAR DIR         46    49    46    40    30     8   357   346   357   342    28   296   254
SST (C)         28.8  28.9  29.0  29.0  28.9  28.5  27.7  27.3  26.8  26.3  25.8  25.5  25.1
POT. INT. (KT)   152   153   154   154   153   149   140   136   131   126   121   117   114
200 MB T (C)   -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.2 -53.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.8 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.1   0.0  -0.1  -0.2  -0.1   0.0   0.1   0.4   0.4   0.6   0.4   0.7   0.5
TH_E DEV (C)       6     7     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     5     4     4     3
700-500 MB RH     80    80    79    78    76    74    72    70    70    68    69    62    56
MODEL VTX (KT)    16    16    17    18    20    20    24    25    28    30    32    32    31
850 MB ENV VOR   -10   -12    -8    -5    -6    -9     2     0    19    17    42    53    79
200 MB DIV        86    73    80    71    83    90    91    49    74    43    51    24    29
700-850 TADV       0     0     0     0    -2    -7    -3    -5     0    -3     3     8    14
LAND (KM)        574   600   637   699   761   783   834   913   982  1069  1183  1305  1407
LAT (DEG N)     15.0  15.3  15.6  15.8  15.9  16.4  16.7  17.1  17.6  17.9  18.1  18.4  18.8
LONG(DEG W)    107.9 108.7 109.5 110.4 111.2 112.9 114.5 116.2 117.8 119.5 121.2 122.9 124.7
STM SPEED (KT)     9     8     9     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     8     9
HEAT CONTENT      20    18    22    28    29    17     7     6     6     3     2     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10      CX,CY:  -8/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  30            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  586  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  11.1 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):           26.7

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   7.  12.  16.  19.  21.  21.  21.  20.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   6.   6.   6.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.  -1.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -5.  -4.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   3.   3.   3.   3.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   2.   4.   5.  11.  12.  17.  18.  21.  19.  17.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   1.   1.   0.   1.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           5.  10.  15.  21.  29.  41.  45.  50.  50.  51.  46.  40.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   35. LAT, LON:   15.0   107.9

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062016 SIX        07/16/16  00 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.45           3.7
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   118.3      40.3  to  144.5       0.75           4.4
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    23.4       0.0  to   75.9       0.31           2.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    11.1      38.9  to    2.1       0.76           5.3
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     9.4      18.9  to    1.4       0.54           3.4
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    35.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.35           1.9
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    78.6     -11.0  to  135.3       0.61           2.0
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    37.6     638.0  to  -68.2       0.85           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.4       2.1  to   -1.7       0.45          -0.5
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.8
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=  12% is   2.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  35% is   2.7 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  23% is   2.7 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  16% is   2.7 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  14% is   3.5 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=  19% is   2.7 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=  20% is   3.3 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:    12.4%   34.8%   23.3%   15.5%   14.4%   18.9%   19.7%
    Logistic:     9.2%   31.6%   27.1%   13.0%    8.2%   28.6%   30.4%
    Bayesian:     1.2%   27.1%   15.5%    4.5%    1.7%    7.6%    6.2%
   Consensus:     7.6%   31.2%   21.9%   11.0%    8.1%   18.4%   18.7%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 SIX        07/16/16  00 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016

The convective structure of the tropical cyclone improved this
evening with a curved band reaching halfway around its
center. Correspondingly, the subjective TAFB and SAB Dvorak
classifications each bumped up to a CI number of 2.5, or 35 kt.
This is also consistent with the earlier scatterometer pass which
showed a maximum of 30 kt at 17Z, when the convective structure was
not as organized. Thus the system is now a tropical storm, both the
fifth one of the eastern North Pacific season as well as the fifth
one in a very busy two-week period.

Estelle is moving toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt, south
of an east-west oriented subtropical ridge. The cyclone should be
steered toward the west or west-northwest at a slightly slower
forward speed for the next few days. All of the reliable global
and regional model track guidance are in close agreement and the
NHC official track is nearly the same as that from the previous
advisory.

The intensity forecast, however, is a bit more uncertain. In the
short term, the environment looks generally conducive with moderate
northeasterly vertical shear, very warm water, and quite moist
conditions. While the shear drops to very low values in about two
days, Estelle should start moving over cooler water induced by the
upwelling and mixing from the Blas-Celia-Darby trio of storms ahead
of it. Thus it is anticipated that the cyclone should steadily
intensify and then it may reach its peak strength at about day
three. At the longer lead times, gradual weakening may commence if
the track stays over the cooler water. This forecast is based upon
the consensus of the Decay-SHIPS, LGEM, and HWRF models and is
slightly higher than the previous advisory through day three and
about the same at days four and five.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 15.2N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 15.7N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 16.1N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 16.3N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 16.7N 114.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.5N 117.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 18.1N 120.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 125.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
300 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Satellite imagery this morning indicates a slight increase in
organization since the previous advisory, with a complex of
convective bands present over the western semicircle and the
southeastern quadrant of the cyclone. However, there is no
concentration of convection near the center at this time.
Subjective satellite intensity estimates are 45 kt from TAFB and 35
kt from SAB. In addition, there are recent AMSU intensity
estimates near 40 kt. Thus, the intensity is raised to 40 kt.

The initial motion is 295/9. Estelle is on the south side of the
subtropical ridge, which should steer the cyclone generally
west-northwestward for 72 hours or so. Beyond that time, the
dynamical models diverge somewhat on the evolution of the ridge.
The GFS shows a weaker ridge due to a developing trough over the
northeastern Pacific, with Estelle continuing west-northwestward.
The ECMWF shows a stronger ridge with Estelle turning more
westward. Overall, the center of the guidance envelope has shifted
a little to the north through the first 72 hours and a little to
the south from 72-120 hours. The new forecast track is just north
of the previous track, lying south of the center of the envelope
through 72 hours and lying north of it from 72-120 hours.

The dynamical models suggest that Estelle will be in a light wind
shear environment for the next several days, so the intensity
forecast is dependent on the sea surface temperatures. If Estelle
follows the forecast track, it should move north of the cold wake
left by previous tropical cyclones and remain over 27C sea surface
temperatures through about 72 hours. Based on this, the intensity
forecast calls for a peak of 85 kt at 72 hours, which is higher
than the SHIPS model and lower than the Florida State
Superensemble. After that time, the sea surface temperatures
decrease along the forecast track, and Estelle should weaken as a
result.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 15.6N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 16.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 16.3N 111.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 16.7N 113.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 17.1N 114.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 18.0N 118.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 18.5N 121.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 19.5N 126.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

EP, 06, 2016071612,   , BEST,   0, 157N, 1093W,  45, 1000, TS,  34, NEQ,   70,   20,   20,   40, 1010,  240,  70,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ESTELLE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 012,


[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Convective banding associated with Estelle continues to increase
and become better organized, with a large band wrapping around the
southwestern portion of the circulation, and broken bands of
convection to the east and southeast of the center. Recent microwave
and early-light visible satellite pictures indicate that the center
of the tropical cyclone is located northeast of the earlier
estimates, which required some relocation of Estelle for this
advisory. With the increase in organization, Dvorak T-numbers have
responded accordingly, and support raising the initial intensity to
45 kt.

Estelle is forecast to remain in a moist and low wind shear
environment during the next several days. These conditions, along
with warm water along the forecast track, should allow for
strengthening, and Estelle is forecast to become a hurricane in a
day or so. After that time, the track forecast takes the cyclone
just north of the cold wake left behind by previous hurricanes, and
continued intensification is likely. After 72 hours, the tropical
cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters which should induce
gradual weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the
various intensity models, and shows a peak intensity slightly
higher than the SHIPS/LGEM guidance.

Due to the relocation of the center, the initial motion estimate is
a somewhat uncertain 290/7 kt, which is slightly slower than before.
Estelle is expected to continue moving west-northwestward during
the next few days to the south of a mid-level ridge that extends
westward from northern Mexico. After that time, there is
increasing spread in the guidance due to differences in the strength
of the ridge. The GFS depicts a weaker ridge after 72 hours due to
a developing trough off the west coast of the United States and
takes the tropical cyclone west-northwestward to northwestward near
the end of the forecast period. The ECMWF is on the southern side
of the guidance envelope as it maintains more ridging and takes
Estelle more westward. The updated NHC track lies between these
solutions and is close to the Florida State Superensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 15.7N 109.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 16.0N 110.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 16.4N 111.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 16.8N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 17.2N 114.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 18.1N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 18.5N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 19.5N 126.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

16/1800 UTC   16.0N    109.4W       T3.0/3.0         ESTELLE -- East Pacific 

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

EP, 06, 2016071618,   , BEST,   0, 158N, 1094W,  45, 1000, TS,  34, NEQ,   70,   40,   30,   40, 1010,  225,  60,   0,   0,   E,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ESTELLE, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 012,


[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/754404569921257472

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
300 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

Estelle's satellite presentation has changed very little since this
morning, with a large convective band still wrapping around the
western and southwestern portion of the circulation. Satellite
data show that there is some northerly shear affecting Estelle,
causing a north-south tilt between the low- and mid-level
centers and a lack of convection over the northern part of the
storm. Dvorak intensity estimates are unchanged since this morning
and the initial intensity remains 45 kt, which is in agreement with
a recent CIMSS AMSU intensity estimate.

The northerly shear is forecast to relax during the next day or so,
which should allow for strengthening while the tropical cyclone
remains over warm water during the next few days. Estelle is
expected to become a hurricane in about 24 hours, and reach peak
intensity in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is again a
little above the SHIPS/LGEM guidance, but in close agreement with
the Florida State Super Ensemble (FSSE).

The low-level center has been difficult to pinpoint today as
several low cloud swirls have been rotating around a mean center.
Based on the recent fixes of the mean center, the initial motion
estimate is 290/7 kt. The tropical cyclone should continue on a
west-northwestward heading during the next few days to the south of
a subtropical ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The
GFS continues to show less ridging than the ECMWF and has a track
that is along the northern edge of the guidance envelope. Meanwhile,
the ECMWF depicts a stronger ridge and a track more westward.
The NHC track lies between these solutions and is again close
to the FSSE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 15.8N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 16.2N 110.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 16.7N 112.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 17.2N 113.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 17.7N 115.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 18.4N 118.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 18.9N 123.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
900 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016

There has not been much change to Estelle's satellite
presentation during the past several hours, with strong convection
continuing near the center along with a large curved band in the
southern and western semicircles. Microwave data show the center
is on the northwestern edge of the deep convection: a sign that
there is still some shear affecting the cyclone. Satellite
intensity estimates are basically unchanged since 6 hours ago, so
the initial wind speed will remain 45 kt.

Weak-to-moderate northwesterly shear is forecast to continue for the
next couple of days while the cyclone moves over warm waters.
Strengthening seems likely then since the shear isn't prohibitive,
and all guidance indicates this upward trend. Estelle should begin
to encounter marginally warm waters after day 3, which is likely to
initiate weakening. The latest forecast is very close to the
previous one, above the model consensus (which has had a low
bias this season) but close to the Florida State Super Ensemble
solution.

Microwave data has been helpful this evening with the initial
position and motion, with Estelle continuing to move west-
northwestward. This general motion is expected for the next several
days while the storm remains beneath a rather persistent ridge over
the eastern Pacific. Overall the model guidance is showing a
slightly stronger ridge in the longer term than the last model
cycle, and the official forecast is nudged more westward near the
end of the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 16.1N 110.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 16.4N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 16.9N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 17.5N 114.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 17.9N 116.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 18.4N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 19.0N 124.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 20.3N 129.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

A large increase in both the areal coverage and depth of the central
convective cloud mass has occurred since the previous advisory due
to the development of a irregularly shaped CDO. Cloud tops near the
alleged center have been -80C and colder during the past couple of
hours. Recent SSMI/S and AMSU microwave passes indicate that the
low-level circulation center has become better defined, and has also
moved closer to the strongest convection and farther into the CDO.
As a result, satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have
increased to a consensus T3.5/55 kt. However, UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC
objective Dvorak estimates are only T2.8/41 kt and T3.0/45 kt,
respectively. Given that the aforementioned microwave images still
indicated some southward tilt to the mid-level center due to modest
northerly vertical shear, the initial intensity has only been
increased to 50 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is westward or 280/08 kt. A motion
between west and west-northwest is expected for the next 96 hours as
Estelle moves along the southern periphery of a strong deep-layer to
its north. After that time, a strong mid-latitude upper-level
trough/low currently located near 25N/119W is forecast to dig
southwestward and erode the ridge, allowing Estelle to turn
northwestward into the developing weakness in the subtropical high.
The new NHC model guidance remains tightly packed, and the official
forecast track is just an update of the previous advisory track, and
follows a blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and Florida State Superensemble
(FSSE) models.

Moderate northerly to northwesterly shear is forecast to affect
Estelle for the next 36 hours, so only modest intensification is
expected. After that, however, the vertical shear is forecast to
decrease to around 5 kt through the end of the period, resulting in
more substantial strengthening through 72 h while the cyclone
remains over favorable SSTs. By 96 h, gradual weakening is forecast
to ensue as Estelle begins to move over sub-25C ocean temperatures.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and
remains above the model consensus IVCN and the SHIPS/LGEM models,
but close to the FSSE intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 16.2N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 16.6N 112.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 17.1N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 17.6N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 17.8N 117.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 18.3N 121.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 18.9N 125.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 20.7N 131.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/754655309394694144

[Alyono]

I believe that is Estelle missing north and Darby hitting

[cycloneye]

Yeah,JB has it messed up.

[NDG]

JB is messed up, period. His love for the Euro is blind, lol. j/k

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062016
900 AM MDT SUN JUL 17 2016

A large burst of deep convection developed over the center of
Estelle overnight and continues this morning. A timely SSMIS
microwave overpass was very helpful in examining the structure and
center location of the tropical cyclone. The microwave data
revealed a well-defined low-level ring located near the northwestern
edge of the primary convective band, but there was no evidence of a
mid-level eye. The latest Dvorak T-numbers from SAB and TAFB
are 3.5 and 4.0, respectively, and UW/CIMSS ADT estimates have
risen to T3.5/55 kt. These data support an initial wind speed
of 55 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 285/7 kt. A strong subtropical ridge
to the north of Estelle should keep the tropical cyclone moving on
a westward to west-northwestward heading during the next several
days. Near the end of the forecast period, Estelle will be
approaching the western portion of the ridge, which should allow the
tropical cyclone to gain more latitude. The guidance is more
tightly clustered today than it was 24 hours ago, so there is
increased confidence in the track forecast. The new NHC track is
near the Florida State Superensemble and an average of the GFS/ECMWF
models.

There appears to be some north or northwesterly shear still
affecting Estelle, but the shear is not expected to be strong
enough to prevent intensification during the next day or so. After
that time, the shear is forecast to relax, and Estelle is forecast
to strengthen at a faster rate on Monday. The track of the tropical
cyclone brings it over cooler waters in 2 to 3 days, which should
start the weakening process, and it should continue throughout the
remainder of the forecast period. The updated intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and is closest to the Florida
State Superensemble and the intensity consensus IVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 16.3N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 16.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 17.2N 114.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 17.6N 116.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 17.9N 118.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 18.2N 122.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 19.0N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/1200Z 20.8N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a hurricane to me.

If it can manage to avoid the cool wake it should become a major cane.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

EP, 06, 2016071718,   , BEST,   0, 164N, 1121W,  65,  988, HU,  34, NEQ,  100,   80,   60,   80, 1010,  200,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,    ESTELLE,  ,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 012,