Strong wave east of Lesser Antilles -- maybe first to really watch?

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/h5-loop-rb.html

Best looking wave off African coast so far this summer possibly.

[StormHunter72]

Too early and it will face some dry air but something to watch.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Should die rather quickly thanks to mid level dry air and SAL. Still impressive.

[Nimbus]

Here is the Sahara dry air link.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here is the Sahara dry air link.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

To me it looks like the SAL may be trying to relax but still too harsh. Hmmm reason why I said SAL was going to help kill this off is because of METS saying the same on social media. Could the SAL moisten some ahead of this wave?

[WPBWeather]

Here is the Sahara dry air link.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

To me it looks like the SAL may be trying to relax but still too harsh. Hmmm reason why I said SAL was going to help kill this off is because of METS saying the same on social media. Could the SAL moisten some ahead of this wave?

Gotta watch that social media stuff

[tarheelprogrammer]

Here is the Sahara dry air link.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

To me it looks like the SAL may be trying to relax but still too harsh. Hmmm reason why I said SAL was going to help kill this off is because of METS saying the same on social media. Could the SAL moisten some ahead of this wave?

Gotta watch that social media stuff

Gets me all the time. Sadly I am a sucker for it.

[RL3AO]

Should die rather quickly thanks to mid level dry air and SAL. Still impressive.

Remember no convection does not mean no wave. These waves are making it into the East Pacific.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Should die rather quickly thanks to mid level dry air and SAL. Still impressive.

Remember no convection does not mean no wave. These waves are making it into the East Pacific.

True I guess what I am meaning to say is the waves are not making it across the Atlantic yet. Sorry for the poor choice of words.

[JaxGator]

I noticed the SAL relaxing too. It's most likely due to the surge of moisture coming off Africa. Impressive wave.

[RL3AO]

What we've seen is a very large amplitude wave now near 38W do an effective job of taking out some of the SAL. This one leaving Africa or the one behind it, if they stay are far enough north may be able to find a slightly more favorable environment in a week or so.

[cycloneye]

Not bad.Agree with RL3AO

[JaxGator]

What we've seen is a very large amplitude wave now near 38W do an effective job of taking out some of the SAL. This one leaving Africa or the one behind it, if they stay are enough north may be able to find a slightly more favorable environment in a week or so.

http://i.imgur.com/1PAamKY.png

That wave that plowed through the SAL did a good job of clearing a path for the other waves as they should do the same imo. Do you think the wave leaving Africa could find favorable conditions if it gets to the Bahamas as model runs(GFS I think) have been showing?

[Nimbus]

If this zonal westerly flow off Africa continues the SAL might not have a chance to fill back in again.
August is only two weeks away and although the African wave train still looks a little dry we still could see a July Cape Verde storm if we get another strong wave.

[OuterBanker]

I don’t know why everyone is saying it’s too early. This week marked the 20th anniversary of the landfall of Bertha in NC. It emerged as a tropical wave off Africa on July 1 and made landfall in NC on the 12th as a Cat 2. It was the first to obtain major status since 1926 in July. Yes in general it’s too early, but you never know.

[wxman57]

True I guess what I am meaning to say is the waves are not making it across the Atlantic yet. Sorry for the poor choice of words.

The waves are most certainly making it all the way across the Atlantic and across the Caribbean then right into the East Pacific, where they're finding a more hospitable environment. Conditions between the eastern Caribbean & Africa are just too hostile (yet) for development. There's a HUGE SAL outbreak forecast to move off the coast of Africa next Thursday evening. It reaches the eastern Caribbean in 10 days. I think that the area from the eastern Caribbean to Africa may remain generally hostile for much of this season. However, the SAL should let up by August, allowing for waves to develop in the Caribbean. I'm sure we'll have something to talk about in a couple of weeks.

[chaser1]

I suppose one other factor to take into account deals with the larger scale and overall circulation over the Atlantic. Here in Florida, we commonly received our share of dusty July days from these SAL outbreaks, however some years seems far worse/better than others. I"m guessing various level air currents (as well as other factors such as existing relative humidy, etc.) dictate how far west these SAL outbreaks spread. I easily recall years where from low latitudes to higher ones, the SAL was pretty bad but perhaps not really spreading west of a certain longitude where the SAL outbreak would seem to eventualy be pulled poleward. Other years I recollect where somewhat more narrow areas of SAL seemed to spread across, and even seem to turn more poleward quicker then other more westward atmospheric drying track years. I suppose there would be some benefit gained if we could better predict the extent of area (basin) SAL coverage. At least here, we might better anticipate when and where waves might be anticipated to flare up more and possibly develop during their westward migration.

[TheStormExpert]

So it looks like we will not see much of an Cape Verde Season if any at all.

I remember a couple months ago there was talk of an even more active Cape Verde Season when compared to last season.

Could this mean an even quieter season than originally thought?

I mean these Tropical Waves aren't doing anything until the East Pacific due to higher pressure throughout the Atlantic, too much Dry Air and SAL, and unfavorable conditions all together.

[JaxGator]

So it looks like we will not see much of an Cape Verde Season if any at all.

I remember a couple months ago there was talk of an even more active Cape Verde Season when compared to last season.

Could this mean an even quieter season than originally thought?

I mean these Tropical Waves aren't doing anything until the East Pacific due to higher pressure throughout the Atlantic, too much Dry Air and SAL, and unfavorable conditions all together.

There's a good chance these waves can develop close to home and strengthen despite the hostile conditions in the MDR. More of a risk for landfalls. I still think it's going to be active regardless.

[TheStormExpert]

So it looks like we will not see much of an Cape Verde Season if any at all.

I remember a couple months ago there was talk of an even more active Cape Verde Season when compared to last season.

Could this mean an even quieter season than originally thought?

I mean these Tropical Waves aren't doing anything until the East Pacific due to higher pressure throughout the Atlantic, too much Dry Air and SAL, and unfavorable conditions all together.

There's a good chance these waves can develop close to home and strengthen despite the hostile conditions in the MDR. More of a risk for landfalls. I still think it's going to be active regardless.

Until I see things change I'm inclined to think another dud season like 2013 is still possible.