Texas Summer 2016

[Ntxw]

Its around 70 here now which is the low for the day. I think 98 is being optimistic...more like low to mid 90s especially north of I-20

[wxman57]

A story to warm a heat-lover's heart (and just about everything else). A city in Iran recorded a heat index of 165 today (115F temp with 90F dewpoint). Sounds warm enough, to me.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

DFW is hitting the jackpot so far this summer... another windy rainstorm... keep it coming. Fall isn't that far away...

.77 for me today in Richardson. 2.51 so far this month. Can't complain, I've only run the sprinkler system once since winter. Last year we went straight from that record spring to a miserably dry summer. The next 6 weeks may be bad, but this is better than last year by a wide margin.

[Tireman4]

A story to warm a heat-lover's heart (and just about everything else). A city in Iran recorded a heat index of 165 today (115F temp with 90F dewpoint). Sounds warm enough, to me.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/07/30/iran-city-hits-suffocating-heat-index-of-154-degrees-near-world-record/

Oh there you are...well Brooks stated it will start to get hotter (100 degree temps)..so relish in this..

[JDawg512]

Just rub it in my north Texas friends. Bone dry here and it won't matter how far north the high is, I'm going by experience, it won't be far enough. Even if there are rain chances, that's all they are is chances and not very high ones at that. Plus any rain that might develop will be spotty at best. We are not talking about wide spread coverage and it will be the southeast coastal plains that will have the best chances. I also factor in local conditions like how much moisture is left in the soil, how the vegetation looks, the humidity and dew points and how high the temp gets. The drier the local area is, the more difficult it will be for showers or storms to make it into the area let alone develop over the area. I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. I'm happy although a little envious that there are some in the state that have had rain this summer. Dallas is definitely the winner.

[A.V.]

Just rub it in my north Texas friends. Bone dry here and it won't matter how far north the high is, I'm going by experience, it won't be far enough. Even if there are rain chances, that's all they are is chances and not very high ones at that. Plus any rain that might develop will be spotty at best. We are not talking about wide spread coverage and it will be the southeast coastal plains that will have the best chances. I also factor in local conditions like how much moisture is left in the soil, how the vegetation looks, the humidity and dew points and how high the temp gets. The drier the local area is, the more difficult it will be for showers or storms to make it into the area let alone develop over the area. I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. I'm happy although a little envious that there are some in the state that have had rain this summer. Dallas is definitely the winner.

As a whole, through this July, much of the inland areas throughout the South have been winners compared to the coastal areas; the entire immediate Gulf Coast has been running on the drier end, whereas the inland areas have been seeing flooding rains. Some of the storm activity was able to penetrate Dallas, allowing them to be winners for now.

I still think that the second half of the month will end up wet for southern TX; the high pressure is indeed north enough for easterly flow to happen, and I think even areas of Austin/San Antonio will see coverage.

Overall though, if you ask me, as meteorological as the explanation of this dry trend is (high pressure), I just can't help but note how the dryness is; cross the state line into Louisiana, and not even far into the state, just right across, and rains just happen. Meanwhile, cross right into TX, and unluckiness with rain happens (at least, that is how it seems). It just makes me think that something supernatural is out there, and whatever it is, it is punishing TX.

[Brent]

DFW is hitting the jackpot so far this summer... another windy rainstorm... keep it coming. Fall isn't that far away...

.77 for me today in Richardson. 2.51 so far this month. Can't complain, I've only run the sprinkler system once since winter. Last year we went straight from that record spring to a miserably dry summer. The next 6 weeks may be bad, but this is better than last year by a wide margin.

What was funny... everyone had their sprinklers on an hour before this hit today...

[TheAustinMan]

Rainfall totals so far this month as we hit the halfway mark for July. As an Austinite I get a little more antsy everytime I see those precip totals drop off right when they reach Austin. Long range modelling doesn't seem very enthusiastic either, so long as that Central US ridging remains in place. Dallas has most certainly been a winner.

[A.V.]

Rainfall totals so far this month as we hit the halfway mark for July. As an Austinite I get a little more antsy everytime I see those precip totals drop off right when they reach Austin. Long range modelling doesn't seem very enthusiastic either, so long as that Central US ridging remains in place. Dallas has most certainly been a winner.


http://i.imgur.com/IiGGCuc.jpg

Read this:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 152008
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
308 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...

Main focus will remain on the elevated fire weather conditions and
the heat index values ranging from 104-110 this afternoon. A
slight decrease in temperature will occur over the weekend with a
10-20% chance increase in isolated showers across the coastal
plains.

Heat index values are already reaching into the 100-105 degree
range this early afternoon and will continue to climb into the 104
to 110 range through peak heating 4-7pm. A special weather
statement has been issued to highlight this hazard. The highest
heat values will be located across the coastal plains and range in
the 106-110 range for an hour or two. The small temporal window of
these values precludes a heat advisory at this time.

Relative humidity minimums this afternoon will reach into the mid
20 percentiles for the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau areas.
Combined with winds of 15 to 20 mph, these conditions would
support quick fire growth, if one was to occur. Vegetation
continues to dry and energy release component values increase
during the ongoing flash drought.

For Saturday, the H5 ridge will weaken slightly and retreat
northwest over New Mexico. This contraction will allow for a weak
mid-level easterly wave to shift across the Texas coast. With the
weakening ridge and slightly higher PWATs, a slightly more active
sea-breeze will occur and a few isolated showers could form along
the coast. Only expect isolated activity saturday afternoon across
the far southeast coastal plains.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...

Continued isolated to scattered coastal plain showers could be
possible each afternoon Sunday into Wednesday. However, overall
amounts and coverage will remain low to moderate and not much
relief will occur. Temperatures will cool by a few degrees
through next week but very little difference will be felt.

The aforementioned H5 ridge over west Texas and New Mexico will
shift northeast across the central plains early next week. The
heat will be on for the central plains but luckily we will be
south of the impressive 599 DM H5 ridge. Being on the south
periphery, deep easterly flow will become established over the
region. This is generally a slightly cooler pattern and will keep
temperatures only 3-5 degrees above normal vs. A westerly flow
pattern that could lead to even warmer temperatures. A slightly
active sea-breeze in the easterly flow will help generate showers
along the coast each afternoon and then push inland to an Atascosa
to Lee County line. Most activity should stay southeast of the
I35 corridor and conditions will continue to further dry.

Dallas did well the first half; southern/Gulf Coast Texas will take on with the second half. Just watch.

[Ntxw]

Another complex will come out of the panhandle tonight into tomorrow morning from NW flow aloft. If they hold together it will likely be a little more west than this morning.

[A.V.]

The NWS office of Houston/Galveston is being wayyyy too pessimistic with the rain chances for the following days:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 152054
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
354 PM CDT FRI JUL 15 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A very hot day with current ambient temperature readings flirting
with the century mark. Curing soils and mainly clear skies, with
drier air mixing down, has created oven-like conditions across
southeastern Texas. The only positive is that mid-level drier air
efficiency mixing down to the surface (middle to upper 60 dew
points) has keep heat indices in check (generally between 100 and
104 F). The mid day showers that formed within southeastern Liberty
County, on what appears to a be a weak area of lower level convergence,
are struggling to hang on within the heat of the day. Yet another
sign that daily precipitation will be hard to come by in the following
days. Surface ridging has shifted over southern Louisiana and, with
mid to upper ridging planted across the southern plains states,
subsidence will aid in suppressing widespread convective activity.

Relatively weaker heights, in line with higher moisture advection
through Sunday, will keep slight to low end POPS in place over the
weekend. Weekend early day showers with afternoon showers/isolated
thunder will likely be focused over the maritime and southern/eastern
forecast area. A progged near 600 dam 5H ridge will assert itself
over the central and southern plains states by early next week.
This gargantuan ridge clamping down over Texas will likely shut
off any convective chances. The heat will really be on from Monday
through the work week with many interior locations hitting the
upper 90s to slightly over 100 F maximum temperatures. The summary
for next week will be extreme heat as the area falls further into
drought with heightened fire weather danger. 31

The rain chances for Houston/Galveston during summer (and for this ridging event) are much better than Austin/San Antonio, yet the forecast office for the latter is much more optimistic for rain chances than that of the former. Notice the talk of "deep easterly flow" in the Austin/San Antonio office vs how the Houston office "throws in the towel." On top of that, the Houston office jurisdictions cover lots of southern coastal territory, which have decent rain chances in the forecast!

[JayDT]

What are the chances of the storm complex to the NW making it all the way to the DFW area?

[JDawg512]

Just rub it in my north Texas friends. Bone dry here and it won't matter how far north the high is, I'm going by experience, it won't be far enough. Even if there are rain chances, that's all they are is chances and not very high ones at that. Plus any rain that might develop will be spotty at best. We are not talking about wide spread coverage and it will be the southeast coastal plains that will have the best chances. I also factor in local conditions like how much moisture is left in the soil, how the vegetation looks, the humidity and dew points and how high the temp gets. The drier the local area is, the more difficult it will be for showers or storms to make it into the area let alone develop over the area. I just don't see a light at the end of the tunnel. I'm happy although a little envious that there are some in the state that have had rain this summer. Dallas is definitely the winner.

As a whole, through this July, much of the inland areas throughout the South have been winners compared to the coastal areas; the entire immediate Gulf Coast has been running on the drier end, whereas the inland areas have been seeing flooding rains. Some of the storm activity was able to penetrate Dallas, allowing them to be winners for now.

I still think that the second half of the month will end up wet for southern TX; the high pressure is indeed north enough for easterly flow to happen, and I think even areas of Austin/San Antonio will see coverage.

Overall though, if you ask me, as meteorological as the explanation of this dry trend is (high pressure), I just can't help but note how the dryness is; cross the state line into Louisiana, and not even far into the state, just right across, and rains just happen. Meanwhile, cross right into TX, and unluckiness with rain happens (at least, that is how it seems). It just makes me think that something supernatural is out there, and whatever it is, it is punishing TX.

Basically the less rain that an area has received since the beginning of June, the more likely drought conditions have taken hold. You can have an area that receives 2 to 4 inches of rain from a complex of storms but go 20+ miles in a certain direction and little to no rain falls. It's been discussed here before but it's a cycle in which drought and soil moisture/vegetation greenery go hand in hand. It doesn't even have to be a large geographical area. There can be pockets of localized drought surrounded by areas that have received more rain. I've watched storms many a time move towards the Austin area and evaporate before they reach the city. The drier the local area is, the longer it takes for any rain or storms to move over and across. It's especially evident at the end of a dry summer when we begin to see the overall weather pattern shift moving into fall where each time a system gets close it dissipates, then the next system is able to make it father until finally rain reaches the city. The previous systems moisten both the local atmosphere and soil so that there is more moisture to work with for the following system.

This year has been interesting when I look at Travis County specifically. The areas of the county that received more rain earlier in the spring after such a dry January and Feburary are the areas that have seen heavier ammounts overall. Areas of Southeast Travis County around Austin-Bergstrom International Airport for example have seen the highest amounts. Before the rain bomb in May that dumped 9 to 11 inches over that area, there was another event back in April where storms formed and trained over the the exact spots that were slammed in May. I watched the lighting for about 4 hours from a small cluster of storms that formed over northern Hays from an event in April. As they moved to the northeast they intensified and kept reforming over southeast Travis County hitting the airport and points to the south and east but no development occured further west. I live roughly 5 1/2 to 6 miles west of ABIA and all I got at my house was a few drops while some areas as close as 3 miles got up to an inch or more. Then in May (I can't remember the date on hand though I believe it was a Thursday). we saw that rain bomb. It's important to note that earlier in the day there was a severe storm which moved over the same spots that the highest totals fell that night. I only recorded about 2 inches from the event but again just 2 to 3 miles to the east, 3 times as much fell. Even with the last rain event we got, higher rain totals fell over and around the airport than over my house. Another wet spot in the county was around Lake Travis and Lago Vista which is where one of my sisters lives. She had several more inches fall over her place in May compared to how much rain fell in South Austin. My point is certain spots tend to be luckier than others and a lot of that has to do with previous rains and how much a specific area receives compared to others within a small geographical area. This is only based off of my personal observation over the years.

It's an interesting topic nevertheless to discuss while we wait for something exciting or worthwhile to happen with the weather.

[weatherdude1108]

Pouring rain and windy with thunder and lightning in the D.C. area.


I have missed seeing this!

Wish my hometown would get it.

[Tireman4]

I hate Summer. Just wanted to put that out there. 94 degrees. Heat Index 103...ughh

[JDawg512]

Still don't see any relief for rest of July. Any hints of what August could provide other than super heat and bone dry?

[South Texas Storms]

Still don't see any relief for rest of July. Any hints of what August could provide other than super heat and bone dry?

The 12z Euro actually shows a weakness developing across Texas in 9-10 days bringing cooler temperatures and rain chances back to the forecast. This is the first run showing this however, so hopefully it's a trend in the right direction!

[Tireman4]

Same old story and dance..

FXUS64 KHGX 181200
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
700 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.AVIATION...
For the 12Z TAFs, the main aviation concerns today center around
SHRA/TSRA developing near the terminals through early evening.

A plume of Gulf moisture continues to spread across the Southeast
Texas terminals this morning, with ongoing isolated SHRA near
Galveston and east of the Interstate 45 terminals this morning.
Expect shower coverage to expand inland mid to late morning with
additional heating, with isolated to scattered TSRA possible near
all inland terminals early afternoon to early evening. High
resolution guidance is fairly consistent in greatest coverage
along the sea breeze this afternoon and have included a TEMPO
mention in for the Houston terminals/Sugar Land 20-23Z in
response. Atmospheric conditions will again support brief heavy
downpours today (resulting in hit or miss sub-VFR visibilities)
and stronger cells capable of variable 20-25 knot wind gusts.
Similar to yesterday, expect all activity to wane with loss of
daytime heating. Otherwise, southeast winds less than 10 knots and
VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of thunderstorms
for the next 24-30 hours.

Huffman

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

DISCUSSION...
Ridge over the Southern Plains getting stronger and heights have
risen over SETX in the last 24 hours. Corresponding increases in
temperature profile showing up in area soundings earlier this
evening and this morning in AMDAR soundings. 850 temps 19-20C/700
10-11C...starting to get the early morning showers to light up
over the coastal waters and also near High Island. Southeasterly
flow this morning may back slightly which should keep speed
convergence going through 7-9 AM with showers mainly south of an
Edna to Pearland to Liberty line. With expected heating today
atmosphere quickly destabilizes and the early morning showers
should transition over to a mix of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Greatest rain chances should stretch from around
Wharton to Sugarland to Houston to Livingston this afternoon with
storms moving west and northwest...seabreeze should also help to
focus storms though as moist as the atmosphere is progged to get
may still see some isolated storms over the Gulf this afternoon
spreading into the coastal counties late in the afternoon.
Rainfall should be spotty but can`t rule out a quick inch of rain.
Funnel clouds and waterspouts yesterday and environment remains
favorable for these again today. Temperatures should be slightly
tempered by precip and cloud cover today. Expect storms to
dissipate between 6-8 pm tonight. Tuesday moisture over the region
should gradually begin to lessen with increased subsidence the
rain chances should taper down and northern areas probably won`t
see much in the way of today`s coverage. Wednesday through
Friday will likely be dry over the area as ridge strength peaks
and sags south then west...if any areas see rain it will probably
be isolated in nature and confined to the I-10 corridor southward.
Saturday into Sunday rain chances improve with ridge retreating
and disturbances rippling around the ridge finally track into
SETX from the east. Lingering troughiness over the Gulf should
keep Saharan dust out of our forecast through at least early next
week if not longer. This shear axis slides west and with moisture
on the increase will likely see a noticeable increase in rain
chances in a week.

Temperatures this week should continue to run just above normal in
the mid 90s with Tmin in the lower to mid 70s so a little closer
to normal. Thursday could end up being the hottest day of the week
if current progs hold with minimal cloud cover and strong
subsidence. Ensembles indicating unusually hot weather expected
over LA and extreme East Texas Thu-Fri before ridge moves. So
temperatures Wed-Fri may need nudging upward if this pattern
holds.

45

MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate southeast to east winds will prevail
across the coastal waters this week with the region located in
between a surface high over the southeastern US and lee troughing
over the High Plains. In response, expect seas generally in the 2-4
feet range through the upcoming weekend. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will also remain possible across the coastal
waters through mid to late week. Near normal tide levels will
increase to slightly above normal by the second half of the week as
a more persistent easterly fetch sets up across the northern Gulf.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 97 75 98 / 20 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 93 76 94 76 97 / 50 0 30 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 90 82 91 / 30 20 30 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...45
Aviation/Marine...14

[Ntxw]

Hang in there Tireman, you have survived most of the summer already! The sun is getting lower the days are getting shorter. The next 2 weeks is the apex of summer, get past that and we look for real cold fronts! The arctic will soon get colder

[Tireman4]

Yeah but you all will get a front before us..remember, the first front to clear out the humidity is September 25th...the first true front is second week of October...ughh