2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#821 Postby RL3AO » Mon Jul 18, 2016 11:57 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
RL3AO wrote:IMO anything that comes off the coast like that will weaken/open up over the eastern Atlantic. It's not very hospitable out there. A strong wave like that would move west and possibly try to develop near islands/Bahamas.


It has the storm weaken over the Atlantic. Possibly dying out/doing nothing. Just too much stability and dry air for that matter.


It's not gonna be like 2012 where everything develops off Africa and goes out to sea. If we get the Caribbean/Bahamas active with waves and a positive MJO, there could be some very strong storms that will almost certainly hit land.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#822 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:05 pm

RL3AO wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
RL3AO wrote:IMO anything that comes off the coast like that will weaken/open up over the eastern Atlantic. It's not very hospitable out there. A strong wave like that would move west and possibly try to develop near islands/Bahamas.


It has the storm weaken over the Atlantic. Possibly dying out/doing nothing. Just too much stability and dry air for that matter.


It's not gonna be like 2012 where everything develops off Africa and goes out to sea. If we get the Caribbean/Bahamas active with waves and a positive MJO, there could be some very strong storms that will almost certainly hit land.


Always the potential for that any season but this season that high does worry me for anything that does develop and travels across the Atlantic. Hopefully not a high number of storms like some people on here believe. We shall see. Impressive wave in long term though.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#823 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 18, 2016 12:20 pm

Here is the higher resolution GFS showing a 998mb low at peak(likely TS) just SE of the Cape Verde Islands. Dry Air is clearly the issue of it's demise as shown in the Relative Humidity graphic below. Wind Shear could be problematic as well but it is way too early to speculate on that.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#824 Postby Hammy » Mon Jul 18, 2016 2:16 pm

Even if the timing is off (wouldn't surprise me to see it closer to July 31 or so) GFS has gone from nothing, to a storm every several runs, to now having something in at least 50% of the runs--and most of those intermittent ones were around late July off Africa. It'll probably disappear again off and on, but this could be a bit stronger indicator than we've seen so far of having something around the early part of August at the very least.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#825 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:42 pm

18z GFS still has the strong Tropical Wave emerging off the West Coast of Africa in under 10 days and developing right away.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#826 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jul 18, 2016 5:56 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS still has the strong Tropical Wave emerging off the West Coast of Africa in under 10 days and developing right away.


Conditions are still way too hostile. 8-)
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#827 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:05 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS still has the strong Tropical Wave emerging off the West Coast of Africa in under 10 days and developing right away.


Conditions are still way too hostile. 8-)

It gets to moderate/strong TS status on the 18z GFS and seems to hold together until the central Tropical Atlantic.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#828 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:18z GFS still has the strong Tropical Wave emerging off the West Coast of Africa in under 10 days and developing right away.


Conditions are still way too hostile. 8-)

It gets to moderate/strong TS status on the 18z GFS and seems to hold together until the central Tropical Atlantic.


Which reminds me a lot of last season. Just as it approaches the northern Caribbean and gets out of the heavy SAL it finds shear waiting for it. GFS looks almost exactly like last season this run in the long range to my untrained eyes. 8-)

That is a lot of shear
Image
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#829 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:18 pm

Here is the 18z GFS showing the Tropical Wave emerging the West Coast of Africa in about 204hrs. and immediately strengthening to moderate/strong TS status as it passes over the Cape Verde Islands. This seems very similar to what Hurricane Fred did last season.

Image

Image

Image
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#830 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:20 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Conditions are still way too hostile. 8-)

It gets to moderate/strong TS status on the 18z GFS and seems to hold together until the central Tropical Atlantic.


Which reminds me a lot of last season. Just as it approaches the northern Caribbean and gets out of the heavy SAL it finds shear waiting for it. GFS looks almost exactly like last season this run in the long range to my untrained eyes. 8-)

That is a lot of shear
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_53.png

That is also 15 days out, alot can and will likely change betweeen now and then in terms of shear.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#831 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:22 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:It gets to moderate/strong TS status on the 18z GFS and seems to hold together until the central Tropical Atlantic.


Which reminds me a lot of last season. Just as it approaches the northern Caribbean and gets out of the heavy SAL it finds shear waiting for it. GFS looks almost exactly like last season this run in the long range to my untrained eyes. 8-)

That is a lot of shear
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_53.png

That is also 15 days out, alot can and will likely change betweeen now and then in terms of shear.


True but my money is on a dead Caribbean/Gulf this season (outside of stalled fronts forming or something outside of TWs) and models seem to be showing this as we head into August the shear seems to be trending up and not down. At least with the GFS.

Not only does the GFS show lots of shear but also stable/dry air thanks to SAL flooding the Atlantic.

Image
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#832 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:28 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Which reminds me a lot of last season. Just as it approaches the northern Caribbean and gets out of the heavy SAL it finds shear waiting for it. GFS looks almost exactly like last season this run in the long range to my untrained eyes. 8-)

That is a lot of shear
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_53.png

That is also 15 days out, alot can and will likely change betweeen now and then in terms of shear.


True but my money is on a dead Caribbean/Gulf this season (outside of stalled fronts forming or something outside of TWs) and models seem to be showing this as we head into August the shear seems to be trending up and not down. At least with the GFS.

Could be onto something but at the moment looking at the latest shear maps outside of the South-Central Caribbean the Atlantic is generally Shear Free.

Image

Image
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#833 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:32 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:That is also 15 days out, alot can and will likely change betweeen now and then in terms of shear.


True but my money is on a dead Caribbean/Gulf this season (outside of stalled fronts forming or something outside of TWs) and models seem to be showing this as we head into August the shear seems to be trending up and not down. At least with the GFS.

Could be onto something but at the moment looking at the latest shear maps outside of the South-Central Caribbean the Atlantic is generally Shear Free.

Image

Image


I could be wrong but this set up looks no different from last season at least with what models are showing for shear. Now add dry stable air to the mix and it could end up deader than last season. 8-)
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#834 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:36 pm

Don't forget that shear forecasts are tough and that systems are capablebof creating or inducing low shear environments for themselves.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#835 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:41 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:
True but my money is on a dead Caribbean/Gulf this season (outside of stalled fronts forming or something outside of TWs) and models seem to be showing this as we head into August the shear seems to be trending up and not down. At least with the GFS.

Could be onto something but at the moment looking at the latest shear maps outside of the South-Central Caribbean the Atlantic is generally Shear Free.

Image

Image


I could be wrong but this set up looks no different from last season at least with what models are showing for shear. Now add dry stable air to the mix and it could end up deader than last season. 8-)

I too am starting to lean more towards a much more quiet season than originally thought.

With the Tropical Atlantic now looking to be even more hostile than last season the Tropical Waves that come off Africa strong or not will choke and die thanks to a mix of Dry Air and SAL. Earlier in the season and pre-season most on here were saying the Tropical Atlantic was to be even more favorable than last season, guess not.

I don't understand why many on here are saying the waves will wait and develop when in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, or Western Atlantic? These Tropical Waves will be lucky enough to survive the Tropical Atlantic at this rate.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#836 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:51 pm

Back on topic, the GFS solution is reasonable, with one cavet, the storm gets going very quickly, and with a CCKW arriving from the EPAC to increase divergence aloft, that is not out of the question. Once an inner core is established, dry air won't be a problem unless shear is.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#837 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:55 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Back on topic, the GFS solution is reasonable, with one cavet, the storm gets going very quickly, and with a CCKW arriving from the EPAC to increase divergence aloft, that is not out of the question. Once an inner core is established, dry air won't be a problem unless shear is.

It looks as if dry air gets the best of it once it detaches and moves away from the ITCZ.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#838 Postby JaxGator » Mon Jul 18, 2016 6:57 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Don't forget that shear forecasts are tough and that systems are capablebof creating or inducing low shear environments for themselves.


Yes, storms can establish anti-cyclones overhead and help to ventilate themselves.
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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#839 Postby xcool22 » Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:03 pm

i hate to said it but I am start to think atl hurricane season is dead for a long time..imo IMO


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Re: 2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

#840 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Jul 18, 2016 7:14 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Back on topic, the GFS solution is reasonable, with one cavet, the storm gets going very quickly, and with a CCKW arriving from the EPAC to increase divergence aloft, that is not out of the question. Once an inner core is established, dry air won't be a problem unless shear is.

It looks as if dry air gets the best of it once it detaches and moves away from the ITCZ.


That doesn't seem likely to verify if there's an established inner core by that time it moves away from the ITCZ, as long as shear is low.
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