2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[ninel conde]

Here is the 18z GFS showing the Tropical Wave emerging the West Coast of Africa in about 204hrs. and immediately strengthening to moderate/strong TS status as it passes over the Cape Verde Islands. This seems very similar to what Hurricane Fred did last season.

Alot like the last few seasons where weal systems choke out as they move west. I know some are saying this season will feature favorable conditions in the western basin. Time will tell. It seems moisture just doesnt exist in the atlantic anymore.

[Kingarabian]

Back on topic, the GFS solution is reasonable, with one cavet, the storm gets going very quickly, and with a CCKW arriving from the EPAC to increase divergence aloft, that is not out of the question. Once an inner core is established, dry air won't be a problem unless shear is.

It looks as if dry air gets the best of it once it detaches and moves away from the ITCZ.

That doesn't seem likely to verify if there's an established inner core by that time it moves away from the ITCZ, as long as shear is low.

For some reason ATL systems handle dry air a lot differently than EPAC storms. I've seen ATL storms suffer from the least bit of dry air - especially in the MDR. For some reason the dry air in the ATL effects storms differently.

[tolakram]

Both Euro and GFS showing a robust low pressure system moving off Africa at 160 - 192 hours. Just like that from nothing to something, with a robust wave train starting to develop behind it. In my opinion you can look at the long term maps and dry air predictions all you want but the skill level of these things is very low. I'm watching as the wave train picks up, looking for how these first few survive and what they do as they traverse the Atlantic. Still very early for CV season yet already the GFS longer term, +192, shows a CV storm moving off south and sneaking up on the islands.

I'm also watching to see if some of these predictors that have become popular, like watching the MJO, are really a make or break for activity.

Like I said, it's going to be a long long July. Crazy how many of you declare the season dead already.

Sat loop over Africa: http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/IMAGERY/IR108/COLOR/FULLDISC/index.htm

[Hammy]

It looks as if dry air gets the best of it once it detaches and moves away from the ITCZ.

That doesn't seem likely to verify if there's an established inner core by that time it moves away from the ITCZ, as long as shear is low.

For some reason ATL systems handle dry air a lot differently than EPAC storms. I've seen ATL storms suffer from the least bit of dry air - especially in the MDR. For some reason the dry air in the ATL effects storms differently.

Given the earlier tweet, due to the large Saharan desert the dry air in the Atlantic seems to be accompanied by dust/stable air/warmer temperatures aloft more often than the Pacific. If the Atlantic extended farther east there would probably be more storms there and less effects of drier air.

[Darvince]

Also, in the EPAC dry air does not necessarily tend to be stable thanks to the North American monsoon. I don't think this is the case in other basins, but idk for sure.

[gatorcane]

The wave around 10E is looking rather good with spin already. I can see why the GFS might be trying to develop it around the Cape Verde islands. Still a few weeks early for development that far east..

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

[Yellow Evan]

It looks as if dry air gets the best of it once it detaches and moves away from the ITCZ.

That doesn't seem likely to verify if there's an established inner core by that time it moves away from the ITCZ, as long as shear is low.

For some reason ATL systems handle dry air a lot differently than EPAC storms. I've seen ATL storms suffer from the least bit of dry air - especially in the MDR. For some reason the dry air in the ATL effects storms differently.

Once an inner core is established, however, that's a different situation where systems are able to more often than notintensify steadily if waters are warm and shear is low and applies to all basins (happens to be best documented in EPAC, WPAC, and NIO). It's when the system is in its formative stages where dry air can play a major role inhabiting development, as often the case in the Atlantic.

[tarheelprogrammer]

0z GFS says what strong wave? going to be a slow season if the pattern continues. Just too hostile in the Atlantic.

[Hurricaneman]

0z GFS says what strong wave? going to be a slow season if the pattern continues. Just too hostile in the Atlantic.

Its also showing a change in pattern around day 10 with a strong wave near the Cape Verdes

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[TheStormExpert]

0z GFS says what strong wave? going to be a slow season if the pattern continues. Just too hostile in the Atlantic.

Its also showing a change in pattern around day 10 with a strong wave near the Cape Verdes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I don't see a pattern change, all I see is yet another major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in the long range.

[chaser1]

Looking at the 0Z EURO, there is no doubt that toward the mid to end of the 10 day forecast range both surface pressures and mid level heights both appear to fall across the Atlantic basin south of 20N.

[Hammy]

Looking at the 0Z EURO, there is no doubt that toward the mid to end of the 10 day forecast range both surface pressures and mid level heights both appear to fall across the Atlantic basin south of 20N.

Could this indicate the monsoon trough re-positioning southward towards a more favorable position?

[ninel conde]

0z GFS says what strong wave? going to be a slow season if the pattern continues. Just too hostile in the Atlantic.

Its also showing a change in pattern around day 10 with a strong wave near the Cape Verdes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I don't see a pattern change, all I see is yet another major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in the long range.

If the east pac turns active again in early august then the switch wont flip. JB not even bothering to tweet about tropics.

[WPBWeather]

Its also showing a change in pattern around day 10 with a strong wave near the Cape Verdes

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I don't see a pattern change, all I see is yet another major hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in the long range.

If the east pac turns active again in early august then the switch wont flip. JB not even bothering to tweet about tropics.

Look again guys. The pattern is changing.

[TheStormExpert]

Well the tropical wave is back on the 06z GFS run only this time much weaker.

[Alyono]

the deep tropics were ALWAYS supposed to be dead this year. You are looking in the work place

The main development regions this year were always supposed to be the Gulf and off of the East Coast. A dead MDR means the season is evolving as forecast

[TheStormExpert]

the deep tropics were ALWAYS supposed to be dead this year. You are looking in the work place

The main development regions this year were always supposed to be the Gulf and off of the East Coast. A dead MDR means the season is evolving as forecast

A month or two ago this was not said to be the case.

So now the Caribbean is supposed to be dead as well?

[Alyono]

the deep tropics were ALWAYS supposed to be dead this year. You are looking in the work place

The main development regions this year were always supposed to be the Gulf and off of the East Coast. A dead MDR means the season is evolving as forecast

A month or two ago this was not said to be the case.

So now the Caribbean is supposed to be dead as well?

I've been saying this since last year. Likely no storms south of 20N. Main area will be Gulf and off of the East Coast. Those areas have already been quite active and look for those areas to become more active as we approach the peak of the season

[TheStormExpert]

the deep tropics were ALWAYS supposed to be dead this year. You are looking in the work place

The main development regions this year were always supposed to be the Gulf and off of the East Coast. A dead MDR means the season is evolving as forecast

A month or two ago this was not said to be the case.

So now the Caribbean is supposed to be dead as well?

I've been saying this since last year. Likely no storms south of 20N. Main area will be Gulf and off of the East Coast. Those areas have already been quite active and look for those areas to become more active as we approach the peak of the season

Yet another year with no tropical development in the ACTUAL "tropics".

So where will the disturbances come from if the tropics are dead?

[Huckster]

In the far western, mainly tropical Atlantic basin, including the Gulf of Mexico, most cyclones still form from tropical waves, but decaying fronts are also potential seeds for tropical cyclones. North of the Bahamas this is especially true. I think what some here are missing is the fact that many of the US's severest hurricanes have come from innocuous looking waves that travel from Africa to the Antilles with very little or intermittent development.

I think for a lot of enthusiasts, there is a sense of "getting burned" over the last several seasons, nevertheless people are still getting caught up on tiny, naked swirls and skeletal waves with no model support AND with climatology generally working against them thus far. Be patient. The peak of the season comes quickly, and we are only a couple of weeks away from seeing the climatological rise in cyclones of all intensities.

It is July 19th. There are two and a half to three more months of solid hurricane season left before the seasons usually definitively change into a more hostile fall pattern, and the latter half of the season tends to feature more activity any way.