2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[srainhoutx]

Yet another year with no tropical development in the ACTUAL "tropics".

So where will the disturbances come from if the tropics are dead?

You do realize that tropical waves bring a lot of energy with them as they cross the Atlantic, even is there is little if any convection associated with them in the MDR. History is replete with cases where open waves suddenly begin to gain convection as they near the Western Atlantic Basin, particularly the Western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. Most of the reliable long range forecasters and experts were expecting exactly what we are seeing way back in April. The main reason for concern this year is that with less activity in the MDR and a long time to track Tropical Cyclones as well as the very quiet period we have seen since 2008 without significant Hurricanes actually making landfall along the US Coast, people become complacent. With shorter time periods to prepare with closer to the Coastline TC genesis, many folks may be caught off guard with a very short timeframes to make preparations on the personal, Governmental (local, State and Federal) and industry.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes I understand that Tropical Waves pack a lot of energy, but if conditions are as unfavorable as they are from just off the West Coast of Africa up until the Western Caribbean then these waves have a long road ahead of them to survive and hold their own up until the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico where conditions may be more favorable.

My concern here is the waves won't be able to do so as either they will be steered straight into South America, the Eastern Pacific, or will die out all together.

[Alyono]

can we stop saying the waves will die out?

The waves have been holding together very well all year. So much so that once the find more favorable conditions in the EPAC, they quickly develop. Danielle found favorable conditions in the GOM, and it quickly developed there

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Yes I understand that Tropical Waves pack a lot of energy, but if conditions are as unfavorable as they are from just off the West Coast of Africa up until the Western Caribbean then these waves have a long road ahead of them to survive and hold their own up until the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico where conditions may be more favorable.

My concern here is the waves won't be able to do so as either they will be steered straight into South America, the Eastern Pacific, or will die out all together.

Why would you be concerned that they might not develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf?

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Yes I understand that Tropical Waves pack a lot of energy, but if conditions are as unfavorable as they are from just off the West Coast of Africa up until the Western Caribbean then these waves have a long road ahead of them to survive and hold their own up until the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico where conditions may be more favorable.

My concern here is the waves won't be able to do so as either they will be steered straight into South America, the Eastern Pacific, or will die out all together.

Why would you be concerned that they might not develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf?

They will either continue to go into the Eastern Pacific, conditions may not be adequate enough for them to develop in in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, or they will lack the energy needed to spin up.

What's your thoughts on things wxman57?

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Yes I understand that Tropical Waves pack a lot of energy, but if conditions are as unfavorable as they are from just off the West Coast of Africa up until the Western Caribbean then these waves have a long road ahead of them to survive and hold their own up until the Western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico where conditions may be more favorable.

My concern here is the waves won't be able to do so as either they will be steered straight into South America, the Eastern Pacific, or will die out all together.

Why would you be concerned that they might not develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf?

They will either continue to go into the Eastern Pacific, conditions may not be adequate enough for them to develop in in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, or they will lack the energy needed to spin up.

What's your thoughts on things wxman57?

You missed my point. I was questioning your apparent desire for a deadly hurricane to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf.

[CFLHurricane]

Why would you be concerned that they might not develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf?

They will either continue to go into the Eastern Pacific, conditions may not be adequate enough for them to develop in in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, or they will lack the energy needed to spin up.

What's your thoughts on things wxman57?

You missed my point. I was questioning your apparent desire for a deadly hurricane to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf.

I'd like to put in my two cents. I don't think anyone wishes death and destruction of others, but as enthusiasts of nature's more powerful side, destruction sometimes happens, and one cannot deny that is part of the edge that makes this hobby addicting.

Furthermore, even if one wanted destruction, it is an impotent sentiment since cyclogenesis is literally one of the few things we have zero control over.

All we can do is watch and warn. The danger that we want to avoid is unfortunately also a necessary component that gives our science its relevance.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I do recall hearing many experts saying conditions would be more favorable in the Caribbean this season. Can not remember who though. I second the fact that most were saying the MDR would be dead but not many were saying the same about the Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

Why would you be concerned that they might not develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf?

They will either continue to go into the Eastern Pacific, conditions may not be adequate enough for them to develop in in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, or they will lack the energy needed to spin up.

What's your thoughts on things wxman57?

You missed my point. I was questioning your apparent desire for a deadly hurricane to develop in the western Caribbean or Gulf.

This use of the word "concern" regarding the western Caribbean reminds me of Ninel's use of the word "problem" the other day as regards when she/he was referring to conditions that would make it hard for the east coast to get hit this season. The irony is that a hurricane enthusiast's "concern" or 'problem" is of a whole lot lower magnitude than that of those in harm's way of these monsters if these enthusiasts' desires were to be fulfilled! Whereas it is completely understandable that there are many enthusiasts that want to see these powerful storms occur and that this desire is hard to control (I'm an enthusiast to some extent and many if not most here are likely that way), their choice of words in referring to the chance for them occurring is more easily controlled. I think that's 57's point. I guess they're being honest to their credit but they perhaps should be more careful with their wording knowing that some don't want these storms.

[SFLcane]

Why are we looking for TW's in MDR on July 19th?? Come on folks.. the REAL season is nearly a month away. Season cancel posts are really getting out of control.

[RL3AO]

Just a follow up on a few of the pro mets. There have been posts mentioning that the waves are dying in the Atlantic. This is false. Even without thunderstorms the waves survive. This may simply be a misuse of the phrase "tropical wave" to mean convection/thunderstorms. You can methodically track waves across the ocean back to Africa. It seems like almost every tropical wave thats entered the Pacific in the last two weeks has developed.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Newest GFS run has the wave weaker and that SAL is really taking its toll. Still spinning up EPAC storms in the long range.

Edit: It does seem the Cape Verde wave train sets up nicely after this first wave pushes through. Could help relieve dry air/SAL.

Though shear seems to be becoming a problem still in the long range.

[Bocadude85]

Newest GFS run has the wave weaker and that SAL is really taking its toll. Still spinning up EPAC storms in the long range.

Edit: It does seem the Cape Verde wave train sets up nicely after this first wave pushes through. Could help relieve dry air/SAL.

Though shear seems to be becoming a problem still in the long range.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_53.png

That shear forecast will change every single run. Shear is difficult to predict a few days in advance, let alone 16 days from now.

[ninel conde]

Big sal outbreaks are going to continue for sometime.



The se canada low is firmly in place which means the atlantic high will also be locked into the perfect position to flood the atlantic with dust. If a high ever locks in over se canada(and i mean locked in, not for 2 days) then pressures would lower over the eastern atlantic and the sal would be cut off.

[WPBWeather]

Newest GFS run has the wave weaker and that SAL is really taking its toll. Still spinning up EPAC storms in the long range.

Edit: It does seem the Cape Verde wave train sets up nicely after this first wave pushes through. Could help relieve dry air/SAL.

Though shear seems to be becoming a problem still in the long range.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_53.png

That shear forecast will change every single run. Shear is difficult to predict a few days in advance, let alone 16 days from now.

THANK YOU for pointing this out Boca!

[gatorcane]

12Z MU showing active EPAC again to start early August:

[ninel conde]

12Z MU showing active EPAC again to start early August:

I think its safe to say the switch isnt going to flip in early august and if the east pac does get hyperactive again all of aug is likely to be dead expecially considering how unfavorable it is now.. I definitely see no reason to assume the western basin will be favorable. at most, 2/1/0 in august for the atlantic.

[RL3AO]

A quick glance at a single model run.

500 mb Height Anomaly

Now



Day 7 Forecast




850 mb Temp Anomaly

Now



Day 7 Forecast




Lower heights in the Atlantic with the next SAL/warm layer push being a lot weaker than the current strong one. While were not seeing a ton of development in the models, the next 7 to 14 days could be a somewhat more favorable period.

[Alyono]

12Z MU showing active EPAC again to start early August:

I think its safe to say the switch isnt going to flip in early august and if the east pac does get hyperactive again all of aug is likely to be dead expecially considering how unfavorable it is now.. I definitely see no reason to assume the western basin will be favorable. at most, 2/1/0 in august for the atlantic.

You may be right about the two. However, your other numbers are low. I could see something like 2/2/1. 1 storm forming in the Gulf and the other off of the East Coast

[TheStormExpert]

Alyono, you see all storms that could potentially form in August becoming hurricanes, with one of those two becoming majors?