2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755822055417847808

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755822055417847808

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/755822228944654336

[TheStormExpert]

Wasn't the GFS the first to really show the current Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone outbreak? Despite going out to 15 days compared to 10 days with the Euro it was persistent once it latched onto something.

[tolakram]

I gained access to that article $$, though I cannot reproduce it here.

It pretty much concurs with what many of us thought the last year. In a slow year the Euro does much much better.

In 2011, for example, CMC, Euro, UKMET, GFS all had about the same performance at 120 hours (within .1). In 2014 the Euro was far far ahead, scoring .8 where the next closest model, the UKM, was at .5 and the GFS near .4 (that bad).

So really there is no way to know how well the GFS will do until we know how active the season will be.

Probably the most humorous finding was that over the years at 6 and 12 hours the CMC does the best, nearly tied with the euro at 1 while the GFS is .7. Not sure what the heck this means other than the GFS has some initialization issues. ??

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF with a closed 1009MB surface low off Africa in about 8 days with a 500MB reflection:

[RL3AO]

And with both models having major upgrades, we really don't know how big the impacts will be for TC-genesis, something that probably relies on a lot of parameterization.

[Hammy]

Wasn't the GFS the first to really show the current Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone outbreak? Despite going out to 15 days compared to 10 days with the Euro it was persistent once it latched onto something.

Canadian showed it too though if I remember. In this case there is no support other than from the GFS or it's ensembles.

[cycloneye]

A 1012 mb low at 12z ECMWF within 240 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Another thing of note is that the GFS has a different steering set up if I am reading this correctly than the ECMWF.

GFS Hour 240:


ECMWF Hour 240:


If the ECMWF is right on the steering and the GFS is right about there being a storm wouldn't that storm go further west?

[RL3AO]

Can't use surface for steering. At least look at 500 mb.





Euro has deeper trough in N Atl therefore a much deeper surface low. Otherwise fairly similar which is to be expected has the mid-level features in the tropics and sub-tropics are more stable.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Can't use surface for steering. At least look at 500 mb.

http://i.imgur.com/IW1qjZ0.png

http://i.imgur.com/Zv9mwf3.png

Euro has deeper trough in N Atl therefore a much deeper surface low. Otherwise fairly similar which is to be expected has the mid-level features in the tropics and sub-tropics are more stable.

What would the steering be for a strong tropical storm in the MDR on the ECMWF 12z run at 240 hours?

[tolakram]

Look at this page:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time

The top selection blocks provide what layers to use based on storm strength. 500mb is good for a 45 to 60kt TS but it's not an exact science.

[Hurricaneman]

If you have a tropical wave or weak low the surface steering is the way to go but if you have something tropical storm or stronger you use the 850 level especially for tropical storms and low end hurricanes but if its a strong hurricane even the 500 level can be used for steering so based on the Euro it would get father west than the GFS

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[RL3AO]

That setup would probably let something go north well to the east of Bermuda. Of course were talking about two weeks from now. Very speculative.

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET shows a pretty big area of convection off Africa on day 7:

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/755855475753627648

[wxman57]

What would the steering be for a strong tropical storm in the MDR on the ECMWF 12z run at 240 hours?

Just like the GFS, the Euro indicates a big gap in the ridge near the eastern Caribbean, allowing for recurve out to sea. You can see the trof extending southward toward the eastern Caribbean on Ryan Maue's tweet just above this post.

[Dean4Storms]

Fortunately this is way out there both in time and distance and both time of cyclogenesis and track are likely to change. At least something on the Atlantic side to watch for!

[chaser1]

Looking at the 0Z EURO, there is no doubt that toward the mid to end of the 10 day forecast range both surface pressures and mid level heights both appear to fall across the Atlantic basin south of 20N.

Could this indicate the monsoon trough re-positioning southward towards a more favorable position?

Could'nt tell ya Hammy but certainly a possibility. I do know that that the GFS has recently been projecting just that, but my interpretation of the maps seem to indicate the lowering of pressures was almost basin-wide so I'm less inclined to think that some monsoon trough is the only thing in play - it would certainly help the cause though.

[SFLcane]

What would the steering be for a strong tropical storm in the MDR on the ECMWF 12z run at 240 hours?

Just like the GFS, the Euro indicates a big gap in the ridge near the eastern Caribbean, allowing for recurve out to sea. You can see the trof extending southward toward the eastern Caribbean on Ryan Maue's tweet just above this post.

Yep theres you're 10+ year gap either way it should recurve into open Atlantic if it develops.