2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[tarheelprogrammer]

What would the steering be for a strong tropical storm in the MDR on the ECMWF 12z run at 240 hours?

Just like the GFS, the Euro indicates a big gap in the ridge near the eastern Caribbean, allowing for recurve out to sea. You can see the trof extending southward toward the eastern Caribbean on Ryan Maue's tweet just above this post.

Yep theres you're 10+ year gap either way it should recurve into open Atlantic if it develops.

Odd how it has been there every time with the exception of Sandy. That is over 11 years.

[TheAustinMan]

Yep theres you're 10+ year gap either way it should recurve into open Atlantic if it develops.

The odds of a tropical cyclone in the open Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and Africa even reaching the United States are slim regardless - the probability percentage wise is about 10-25%. The odds of a tropical cyclone over there reaching the US as a major hurricane are even slimmer - 5 to 10%. And besides, considering the 4 major hurricanes that hit the United States in 2005 (that '10+ year gap' you're referring to), not a single one of them reached tropical storm intensity east of the Lesser Antilles.

A Cape Verde storm striking the United States as a major hurricane is not the norm.

[RL3AO]

Storms don't form off Africa and impact the US.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Storms don't form off Africa and impact the US.

Oh I know but the odds lately or at least the last 11 years has been zero major hurricane impacts regardless of where they form. Of course that can not continue forever though I would like it to be that way. Has there ever been a period in recorded history where no major hurricane has impacted the US in that length of time? I know it is off subject a little but just wondering.

[TheAustinMan]

Has there ever been a period in recorded history where no major hurricane has impacted the US in that length of time? I know it is off subject a little but just wondering.

Since 1950 (after data started becoming more reliable), this has been the longest period without a US landfalling major hurricane (landfall at 100 kt or greater). If we use 105 kt as the threshold, the current drought is the second longest, behind the 11+ year lull between 1992's Andrew and 2004's Charley.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Has there ever been a period in recorded history where no major hurricane has impacted the US in that length of time? I know it is off subject a little but just wondering.

Since 1950 (after data started becoming more reliable), this has been the longest period without a US landfalling major hurricane (landfall at 100 kt or greater). If we use 105 kt as the threshold, the current drought is the second longest, behind the 11+ year lull between 1992's Andrew and 2004's Charley.

What about Fran?

[TheAustinMan]

What about Fran?

Fran made landfall with winds of 100 kt (115 mph).

____________________________
The 18z GFS is currently running, and continues to depict the Cape Verde disturbance, though its intensity is weaker this run.

[1900hurricane]

Has there ever been a period in recorded history where no major hurricane has impacted the US in that length of time? I know it is off subject a little but just wondering.

Since 1950 (after data started becoming more reliable), this has been the longest period without a US landfalling major hurricane (landfall at 100 kt or greater). If we use 105 kt as the threshold, the current drought is the second longest, behind the 11+ year lull between 1992's Andrew and 2004's Charley.

What about Fran?

Fran was a 100 kt landfall.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL061996_Fran.pdf

[tarheelprogrammer]

Since 1950 (after data started becoming more reliable), this has been the longest period without a US landfalling major hurricane (landfall at 100 kt or greater). If we use 105 kt as the threshold, the current drought is the second longest, behind the 11+ year lull between 1992's Andrew and 2004's Charley.

What about Fran?

Fran was a 100 kt landfall.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL061996_Fran.pdf

Okay thanks

[1900hurricane]

The current run (and probably the last couple too, although I haven't looked in much detail) is developing and tracking the system right along the ocean temperature gradient in the east Atlantic. If we go ahead and take the liberty of assuming development, only small deviations in track would put the system on either side of the gradient.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the 18z run is weaker and a further south and west. May not catch the weakness. Also develops another wave behind it. With how cool the waters are in the eastern Atlantic, I could see a wave trying to get closer to the islands, but by then it may have moved away from the favorable cckw/mjo environment. Catch 22.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like the 18z run is weaker and a further south and west. May not catch the weakness. Also develops another wave behind it. With how cool the waters are in the eastern Atlantic, I could see a wave trying to get closer to the islands, but by then it may have moved away from the favorable cckw/mjo environment. Catch 22.

It is buckling to the ECMWF and CMC. Both show much of nothing and GFS trended that way. If 0z trends even weaker it was a phantom storm. Could be a quiet Atlantic the first few weeks of August as well. We shall see.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the 18z run is weaker and a further south and west. May not catch the weakness. Also develops another wave behind it. With how cool the waters are in the eastern Atlantic, I could see a wave trying to get closer to the islands, but by then it may have moved away from the favorable cckw/mjo environment. Catch 22.

It is buckling to the ECMWF and CMC. Both show much of nothing and GFS trended that way. If 0z trends even weaker it was a phantom storm. Could be a quiet Atlantic the first few weeks of August as well. We shall see.

The Euro has a very robust wave that doesn't quite attain TC-Geneis. To pretend like the Euro shows absolutely nothing is absurd. There is plenty of evidence from both models that the eastern Atlantic needs to be watched next week. Will we get a TC? I dunno. Theres evidence for and theres evidence against.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looks like the 18z run is weaker and a further south and west. May not catch the weakness. Also develops another wave behind it. With how cool the waters are in the eastern Atlantic, I could see a wave trying to get closer to the islands, but by then it may have moved away from the favorable cckw/mjo environment. Catch 22.

It is buckling to the ECMWF and CMC. Both show much of nothing and GFS trended that way. If 0z trends even weaker it was a phantom storm. Could be a quiet Atlantic the first few weeks of August as well. We shall see.

The Euro has a very robust wave that doesn't quite attain TC-Geneis. To pretend like the Euro shows absolutely nothing is absurd. There is plenty of evidence from both models that the eastern Atlantic needs to be watched next week. Will we get a TC? I dunno. Theres evidence for and theres evidence against.

We shall see.

[Hammy]

Latest GFS still has a storm and has backed off significantly in intensity, and as a result has it further west. It's interesting that the Euro trended slightly stronger while the GFS trended weaker, so this could possibly be a road to model consensus and eventual development. Interestingly, if you aren't tired of hearing 1998 from me, that year had Alex form around the same time as this may form, almost to the day as per a few runs.

[Hurricaneman]

Latest GFS still has a storm and has backed off significantly in intensity, and as a result has it further west. It's interesting that the Euro trended slightly stronger while the GFS trended weaker, so this could possibly be a road to model consensus and eventual development. Interestingly, if you aren't tired of hearing 1998 from me, that year had Alex form around the same time as this may form, almost to the day as per a few runs.

This will probably at best be exactly like Alex in 1998 but I personally dont want to see a copy of that year or anything similar because what if somehow we get an October storm like Mitch but catches the trough unlike Mitch did that could be what the GOM really has to watch for

As for this modeled system it may need to be watched if it continues to show up in the models. Another thing is that the GFS seems to develop something near the SE coast at 372 from the wave about to exit Africa and a front in the long range

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[stormwise]

The current run (and probably the last couple too, although I haven't looked in much detail) is developing and tracking the system right along the ocean temperature gradient in the east Atlantic. If we go ahead and take the liberty of assuming development, only small deviations in track would put the system on either side of the gradient.

So a small deviation on the cooler side could produce a annular storm before it gets to the islands?.

[1900hurricane]

The current run (and probably the last couple too, although I haven't looked in much detail) is developing and tracking the system right along the ocean temperature gradient in the east Atlantic. If we go ahead and take the liberty of assuming development, only small deviations in track would put the system on either side of the gradient.

So a small deviation on the cooler side could produce a annular storm before it gets to the islands?.

Unlikely. What is more likely is the storm would be rather weak if it were to develop.

[RL3AO]

I could see the models trending towards non-development and possibly getting the system into the Bahamas. Of course thats still two weeks away.

[Alyono]

who cares about the Cape Verde system. That's not the big thing on the run

Look at the low along the SE coast that comes from the Gulf at the end of the run. If we see that continuing, that may be a sign that the Gulf and off the East Coast will develop, which is where any development this season will occur