2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[WPBWeather]

Well, we have finally crossed the no storms barrier and are now discussing where storms will go.

[WeatherEmperor]

who cares about the Cape Verde system. That's not the big thing on the run

Look at the low along the SE coast that comes from the Gulf at the end of the run. If we see that continuing, that may be a sign that the Gulf and off the East Coast will develop, which is where any development this season will occur

What are your thoughts on the extreme western atlantic like the area between puerto rico and the bahamas? Is that a more favorable area this year?

[Hammy]

I could see the models trending towards non-development and possibly getting the system into the Bahamas. Of course thats still two weeks away.

I think the next run will be a good indicator--if it's still there (or stronger) then it could be an indicator of development, if it drops it then it's probably just overdeveloping a strong wave that nothing will come of.

[TheAustinMan]

I've highlighted the "homegrown" system as it initially appears on the 18z GFS below. This disturbance tracks around the periphery of that Lower Mississippi high and as a result slips into the Gulf, where it might fester and develop into a tropical cyclone. The GFS has it accompanied by an upper-level anticyclonic which would be quite favorable and minimize shear. Since it's modeled so close to the coast, I'll be interested in seeing where the models trend placement-wise to see how much legroom this possible disturbance has to work with.

+210 hours, at South Carolina


+384 hours, after having moved into the Gulf and back into the coast, at Savannah

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[SFLcane]

who cares about the Cape Verde system. That's not the big thing on the run

Look at the low along the SE coast that comes from the Gulf at the end of the run. If we see that continuing, that may be a sign that the Gulf and off the East Coast will develop, which is where any development this season will occur

What are your thoughts on the extreme western atlantic like the area between puerto rico and the bahamas? Is that a more favorable area this year?

I'd say yes for sure that area looks favorable and certainly needs to be watched in the coming weeks.

[Alyono]

who cares about the Cape Verde system. That's not the big thing on the run

Look at the low along the SE coast that comes from the Gulf at the end of the run. If we see that continuing, that may be a sign that the Gulf and off the East Coast will develop, which is where any development this season will occur

What are your thoughts on the extreme western atlantic like the area between puerto rico and the bahamas? Is that a more favorable area this year?

the subtropical western Atlantic and the Gulf are the two places we need to watch this year

[TheStormExpert]

I'm going to bet the 00z GFS drops development all together. Even the 18z GFS Ensembles are less bullish.

[TheStormExpert]

who cares about the Cape Verde system. That's not the big thing on the run

Look at the low along the SE coast that comes from the Gulf at the end of the run. If we see that continuing, that may be a sign that the Gulf and off the East Coast will develop, which is where any development this season will occur

What are your thoughts on the extreme western atlantic like the area between puerto rico and the bahamas? Is that a more favorable area this year?

the subtropical western Atlantic and the Gulf are the two places we need to watch this year

So why exactly do you believe the MDR including the Caribbean will be void of any Tropical Cyclone activity?

[WPBWeather]

I'm going to bet the 00z GFS drops development all together. Even the 18z GFS Ensembles are less bullish.

Don't bet too much on that...

[Hammy]

I'm going to bet the 00z GFS drops development all together. Even the 18z GFS Ensembles are less bullish.

Don't bet too much on that...

I'll second the bet--at minimum it'll be dropped to below TS intensity for the duration if not pushed back by a day or two.

[WPBWeather]

I'm going to bet the 00z GFS drops development all together. Even the 18z GFS Ensembles are less bullish.

Don't bet too much on that...

I'll second the bet--at minimum it'll be dropped to below TS intensity for the duration if not pushed back by a day or two.

Ouch! If you say so, I'll fold!

[Hammy]

Don't bet too much on that...

I'll second the bet--at minimum it'll be dropped to below TS intensity for the duration if not pushed back by a day or two.

Ouch! If you say so, I'll fold!

Much to my surprise, it's not only still there but appears stronger on this run as well. That said, the GEM still shows nothing other than continuing monsoon. Of note, the GFS has no development in the Epac, while the GEM does.

[stormwise]

RE Cape Verde system.

If something does spin up I'm sure the locals from the Caribbean islands will care.

[tarheelprogrammer]

0z GFS about the same OTS with a huge path for it to steer into. Potential ACE if it materializes. Likely trending toward not developing and nothing else in the entire run. I know TC genesis prediction is not a perfect science but Atlantic sure does look quiet except for that wave on all runs and only the GFS develops it. Anyone wishing to update their numbers yet?

[ninel conde]

2 reasons i dont think it will develop. Euro has next to nothing and JB isnt even tweeting about it. He picks up on ANYTHING this time of year if it has any chance. Still dont think we will see a well developed hurricane north of 25 in the GOM. Probably not south of 25 either. Record sst's dont mean much unless high pressure dominates the west atlantic. Big heat dome over the south central plains isnt particularly good for gom development. Would love to see an east coast ridge and trof in the center of the country( not for 2 days but locked in for weeks)



Neg NAO with the azores high in a perfect dust position. the low shown near the cape verdes will run into some rather dusty air and too high pressures.

[Hammy]

2 reasons i dont think it will develop. Euro has next to nothing and JB isnt even tweeting about it. He picks up on ANYTHING this time of year if it has any chance. Still dont think we will see a well developed hurricane north of 25 in the GOM. Probably not south of 25 either. Record sst's dont mean much unless high pressure dominates the west atlantic. Big heat dome over the south central plains isnt particularly good for gom development. Would love to see an east coast ridge and trof in the center of the country( not for 2 days but locked in for weeks)

I have doubts but whether somebody is tweeting about it or not is not really a scientific measure of whether something will or will not develop. And I'd be a bit careful with the wording as it sounds like you're wishing for people to have to deal with a hurricane...

[RL3AO]

Since when does a trough ever lock in for weeks in the central US during summer?

[USTropics]

2 reasons i dont think it will develop. Euro has next to nothing and JB isnt even tweeting about it. He picks up on ANYTHING this time of year if it has any chance. Still dont think we will see a well developed hurricane north of 25 in the GOM. Probably not south of 25 either. Record sst's dont mean much unless high pressure dominates the west atlantic. Big heat dome over the south central plains isnt particularly good for gom development. Would love to see an east coast ridge and trof in the center of the country( not for 2 days but locked in for weeks)



Neg NAO with the azores high in a perfect dust position. the low shown near the cape verdes will run into some rather dusty air and too high pressures.

Not a supporter of Joe Bastardi by any means (I still respect his opinion) but part of the reason he isn't bullish on this wave is his judgement on the GFS model as a whole:

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/755926263265648640




Also I've been following this board for 10+ years and have never seen someone use a Twitter/Facebook/Myspace comment (or lack thereof) to quantify development of a tropical system

[Hammy]

2 reasons i dont think it will develop. Euro has next to nothing and JB isnt even tweeting about it. He picks up on ANYTHING this time of year if it has any chance. Still dont think we will see a well developed hurricane north of 25 in the GOM. Probably not south of 25 either. Record sst's dont mean much unless high pressure dominates the west atlantic. Big heat dome over the south central plains isnt particularly good for gom development. Would love to see an east coast ridge and trof in the center of the country( not for 2 days but locked in for weeks)



Neg NAO with the azores high in a perfect dust position. the low shown near the cape verdes will run into some rather dusty air and too high pressures.

Not a supporter of Joe Bastardi by any means (I still respect his opinion) but part of the reason he isn't bullish on this wave is his judgement on the GFS model as a whole:

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/755926263265648640




Also I've been following this board for 10+ years and have never seen someone use a Twitter/Facebook/Myspace comment (or lack thereof) to quantify development of a tropical system

I'm honestly not sure what he expects from a 10-15 day forecast considering official NWS forecasts only go out six days, and NHC five.

[RL3AO]

I'm honestly not sure what he expects from a 10-15 day forecast considering official NWS forecasts only go out six days, and NHC five.

1) JB's expertise are climate forecasts. Both short range (1 week to 1 month) and seasonal. It's how he makes his living.
2) CPC issues official forecasts out 13 months
3) The GFS has had some spectacular failures with US temperatures this summer.