Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
519 AM AST TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Ridge aloft will build across the forecast area as
an upper level trough moves west into the central and western
Caribbean. The ridge aloft will hold through at least the end of
the workweek. As this feature erodes, an upper level trough and
associated low pressure will amplify into the eastern Caribbean
from the tropical Atlantic Friday and the upcoming weekend. A
broad surface high pressure will continue to prevail across the
central Atlantic through Friday. A series of tropical waves will
continue to moves across the eastern Caribbean through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly to variably cloudy skies were observed across
the local islands during the overnight and early morning hours.
Scattered showers affected the local waters, with a few of them
moving across the southeast sections of Puerto Rico as well as the
USVI. The overnight temperatures were in the upper 70s to lower
80s across the lower elevations, and in the upper 60s to lower
70s across the higher elevations.

Continue to expect locally induced afternoon showers and Tstorms
over and north of the Cordillera Central today. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected as the result of available moisture,
which is associated with a weak tropical wave moving across the
area...and combined with local and diurnal effects. In addition,
showers embedded in the prevailing southeast wind flow cant be
ruled out across USVI and Eastern Puerto Rico.

The best moisture advection, with PWAT values increasing above
two inches, as well as the highest chance for shower and thunder
activity during the forecast cycle is still expected Wednesday
afternoon and early Thursday as another tropical wave moves across
the eastern Caribbean. This wave will be accompanied by a wind
surge. Therefore, at this time, squally weather conditions are
possible Wednesday afternoon and early Thursday mainly across the
USVI and the eastern half of PR. As this feature moves away on
Thursday afternoon, a drier and dusty air mass will then encompass
the eastern caribbean. Although an upper level trough will return
to the forecast area by the end of the week, there will be a lack
in upper level dynamics. This will result in a seasonable weather
pattern Friday through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH expected across the local terminals except
TJBQ and TJMZ through 19/14Z. Winds will continue from the ESE at
around 10kt across the Leewards and USVI but light and VRB over PR
through 19/12Z. Thereafter...winds will increase to about 10-15kt
and gusty but continuing from the ESE with sea breeze variations.
Afternoon SHRA/TSRA development expected in the vicinity of TJMZ
but possibly over TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...Tropical waves combined with a surface high pressure
across the central Atlantic will increase winds and seas across
the regional waters. Choppy seas of 4-6 feet expected across most
of the waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Offshore
Atlantic Waters as seas of 7 feet are forecast today and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 50 20 50 40
STT 90 80 90 80 / 30 40 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
207 PM AST TUE JUL 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper ridge will build across the forecast
area for the next few days. A tutt low is forecast to develop on
Thursday to the northeast of the area and move west across the
islands through the end of the week. At low levels, broad surface
high pressure will continue to prevail across the central Atlantic
through at least Friday as it shifts slowly to the northeastern
Atlantic during the weekend. A tropical wave will enter the
eastern Caribbean by noon tomorrow and move across the forecast
area through early Thursday. Hazy conditions due to SAL expected
later on Thursday through Friday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Sunny to partly cloudy skies prevailed across the
islands Today, as a drier air mass filtered across the region.
Thus, not much rainfall activity was observed across the islands
as of 2 pm ast. However, diurnal effects and limited moisture
could still induced showers and thunderstorms across the NW
quadrant of the island. For tomorrow, a tropical wave will bring
an increase in shower and thunderstorm coverage across the
forecast area. Some thunderstorms are expected to produce strong
gusty winds and create periods of urban and small stream flooding
due to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall across the mountain
ranges of the island. Fair weather conditions are expected
following the passage of the wave as SAL and convergence aloft due
to the position of the tutt to the northeast of the area.


&&

.AVIATION...VCSH but generally VFR conditions are expected to
continue through 19/17z. Then sct-num SHRA and TSRA will develop
mainly interior and northwestern PR with areas of mtn obscurations.
Condtions will persist until arnd 20/00z. In the Leeward Islands VFR
conds expected until at least 20/08z. SHRA to increase in advance of
a tropical wave moving through the area later Wednesday. Winds alf:
strongest winds 120/38 kt at FL120. Sfc winds 10 to 20 kt with some
sea breeze influences and higher gusts in TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory continues in effect for 7 feet seas
in the offshore Atlantic waters through Wednesday night. Squally
weather expected tomorrow and early Thursday due to the passage
of a tropical wave. Small crafts should exercise caution across
the rest of the water due to seas up to 6 feet and east winds up
to 20 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 87 75 90 / 50 70 70 50
STT 80 88 77 88 / 30 60 70 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
429 AM AST WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave is expected to move into the local area
today with the highest amount of moisture moving in after noon.
Surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic will continue to
promote a moderate easterly wind flow for the next few days. Weak
upper level ridge is present over the local islands but a TUTT is
expected to develop on Thursday to the northeast of the Leewards
and it is expected to move to the southwest into the local area by
Saturday. Saharan dust expected to affect the local area late
Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Widely scattered showers have been observed during
the overnight hours across the local forecast area. This is due to
the steady increase in moisture as a tropical wave approaches. The
deepest moisture associated with the tropical wave is expected to
move in after noon...causing showers and thunderstorms to move in
and affect the local islands. Also...when combined with the local
effects...thunderstorms are expected across western PR. Moderate
to heavy rain with occasional lightning and gusty winds can be
expected with the thunderstorm activity. The deep moisture is
expected to linger into Thursday morning...which is the reason why
the forecast calls for numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
into Thursday morning.

Gradual improvement is expected on Thursday...especially in the
afternoon as drier air and Saharan dust begins to move into the
local area. By Friday...the drier air and Saharan dust is still
expected to be over the local area. There is also the TUTT to the
northeast by then which will cause subsidence due to its
positioning...so shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday
and Saturday afternoon is expected to be limited.


&&

.AVIATION...VCSH but generally VFR conditions are expected to
continue through 20/16z. Then sct-num SHRA and TSRA will develop
mainly interior and northwestern PR with areas of mtn obscurations.
Condtions will persist until 20/22z. SHRA/TSRA to increase at the
Leeward and USVI terminals during the afternoon and evening hours
respectively. These SHRA/TSRA expected to reach PR aft 21/00z. Sfc
winds 10 to 20 kt with some sea breeze influences and higher gusts
in TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds expected over
the waters today into Thursday as the tropical wave passes. Small
craft advisory continues in effect for 7 foot seas across the
offshore Atlantic waters through this evening. Small craft
operators should exercise caution across the rest of the waters
due to seas up to 6 feet and east winds up to 20 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 90 80 / 50 50 50 20
STT 88 80 89 80 / 50 60 50 20

[cycloneye]

We may have to begin to watch how things progress in the Tropical Atlantic as the peak of the season gets closer.

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/755737774817292288

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST WED JUL 20 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave is expected to move into the local area
through tomorrow. Surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic
will continue to promote a moderate easterly wind flow for the
next few days. Weak upper level ridge is present over the local
islands but a TUTT is expected to develop on Thursday to the
northeast of the Leewards and it is expected to move to the
southwest into the local area by Saturday. Saharan dust expected
to affect the local area late Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers with thunderstorms developed this afternoon
across most of the area...with the heaviest weather affecting the
western section of Puerto Rico. Activity was associated with the
leading edge of a tropical wave just over the Eastern Caribbean
this afternoon. The moisture associated with the wave...will
continue to combine with daytime heating and local effects to
induce the development of scattered to numerous showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms across central, interior,
and western Puerto Rico as well as across the USVI and the
surrounding coastal waters.

This activity is expected to continue overnight and into
Thursday. After the passage of the wave, a drier air mass is then
expected to move across the local islands from the east, limiting
the shower activity to the typical early morning showers over
eastern Puerto Rico, followed by some afternoon convection across
western and interior Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...Brief periods of MVFR conditions will affect the
leeward, USVI and Eastern Puerto Rico taf sites until at least
20/21Z. Scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA will continue to develop
mainly across interior and northwestern PR with areas of mtn
obscurations until 20/22Z. SHRA/TSRA will increase again at the
Leeward and USVI terminals this evening. SHRA/TSRA expected to reach
again PR after 21/02Z. Sfc winds 10 to 20 kt with higher gusts near
thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...Showers and thunderstorms with gusty winds expected over
the waters tonight into Thursday as the tropical wave passes.
Small craft advisory continues in effect for 7 foot seas across
the offshore Atlantic waters through this evening. Small craft
operators should exercise caution across the rest of the waters
due to seas up to 6 feet and east winds up to 20 knots.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 90 80 91 / 50 50 20 20
STT 80 89 80 90 / 60 50 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
425 AM AST THU JUL 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave is continues to move west and out of the
local area but lingering moisture will remain through the early
afternoon hours. Surface high pressure over the Central Atlantic
will continue to promote a moderate easterly wind flow for the
next few days. A TUTT is expected to develop today just northeast
of the Leewards and it is expected to move to the west southwest
approaching the local area by Saturday. Saharan dust expected to
affect the local area this afternoon into Friday. Relatively dry
conditions expected on Friday and Saturday with the chance of rain
increasing slightly for Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Widely scattered showers were observed during the
overnight hours across the local forecast area. This is due to the
lingering moisture of the tropical wave that passed over the area
yesterday. The available moisture is now gradually decreasing and
it is expected to continue into the early afternoon hours.
However...when combined with the local effects...thunderstorms
are possible across western and northwestern PR. Moderate to
heavy rain with occasional lightning and gusty winds can be
expected with the thunderstorm activity.

Gradual improvement is expected by late this afternoon and
tonight...as drier air and Saharan dust begins to move into the
local area. By Friday...the drier air and Saharan dust is still
expected to be over the local area. There is also the TUTT to the
northeast by then which will cause subsidence due to its
positioning...so shower and thunderstorm activity on Friday and
Saturday afternoon is expected to be limited. A slight increase in
moisture is expected for Sunday...which is expected to aid in the
development of morning showers across the local
waters...USVI...and eastern PR and then showers and thunderstorms
across western PR on Sunday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH at the Leeward and USVI terminals as well as
JSJ early this morning...but generally VFR conds expected to
prevail. SHRA/TSRA will develop over the interior and northwest PR
with areas of mtn obscurations between 21/16-22z...this also may
result in MVFR conds at JBQ. Sfc winds 10 to 20 kt with some sea
breeze influences and higher gusts in TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...Winds between 15 to 20 knots expected over most exposed
waters. In the outer Atlantic waters...seas are expected to be at
around 7 feet. Therefore there is a small craft advisory through
8 PM AST tonight. Seas up to 6 feet are expected elsewhere so
small craft operators should exercise caution today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 79 86 80 / 30 20 20 30
STT 83 80 83 79 / 50 20 20 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
200 PM AST THU JUL 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS... A TUTT it is expected to move to the west southwest
approaching the local area by Saturday. Saharan dust expected to
affect the local area through Friday. Relatively dry conditions
expected on Friday and Saturday with the chance of rain increasing
slightly for Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A very drier air mass has moved across the area
today. This area of drier air is accompany by Saharan air which
is suppressing the shower activity across the region.
However...available moisture combined with strong daytime heating
and local effect to produced some showers and thunderstorms over
the western interior and northwest sections of Puerto Rico.

For the remainder of the work week and into the weekend...dry air
will continue dominating the local region. Although a TUTT it is
expected to move west southwest approaching the local area by
Saturday...it is expected to remain east of the area...without
any significant impact expected over the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH at the Leeward and USVI terminals as well as
TJSJ this morning...but generally VFR conditions expected to
prevail. SHRA/TSRA will develop over the interior and northwest PR
with areas of mtn obscurations between 21/16-22z...this also may
result in MVFR conditions at tJBQ. Sfc winds 10 to 20 kt with
sea breeze influences and higher gusts in TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...Winds between 15 to 20 knots expected over most exposed
waters. Latest buoy observations indicated seas have decreased
below 7 feet in the Atlantic waters. Therefore there is a small
craft advisory through 8 PM AST tonight. Seas up to 6 feet are
expected elsewhere so small craft operators should exercise
caution.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 86 80 85 / 20 20 30 30
STT 80 83 79 82 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/756218618145234944

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
519 AM AST FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather pattern will prevail across the local
islands through at least Saturday. An upper level low/TUTT
will move over the region on Sunday...increasing the instability
and the chance of showers across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Another surge of moisture is expected on Tuesday next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A relatively dry and stable air mass will prevail
across the islands today. Saharan dust particles embedded in this
stable air mass will produce hazy skies and somewhat reduce
visibilities. Strong subsidence will keep the chances of showers
generally low and the rainfall accumulations will be mainly light.
Moderate showers still possible over Southwest Puerto Rico during
the afternoon due to the sea breeze convergence.

Stable pattern will prevail through Saturday as Saharan Air Layer
remains over the area...limiting the development of showers across
the local region. A few bands of moisture embedded in the trade
winds will bring light showers at night and early in the morning.
An upper level trough/TUTT will move over the area late Saturday
into Sunday...increasing the moisture and instability across the
local islands. The coverage and intensity of the afternoon convection
will increase somewhat due to the influence of the TUTT. The next
surge of moisture is associated with a tropical wave. At this
time...operational models suggest that the moisture associated
with the wave will likely reach the local region on Tuesday. As a
result...showers and a few thunderstorms are likely with the wave.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the rest forecast period. HZ due to Saharan dust expected Today
across the flying area. From 17Z-22Z, SHRA/Isolated TSRA expected
to develop over western interior/southwestern PR creating brief
mvfr and areas of mtn obscurations thru at least 22Z, impacting
mainly TJMZ and the vicinity of TJPS/TJBQ. Low level winds from
the ENE at 10-20 knots with sea breeze variations and higher gusts
after 14Z.


&&

.MARINE...Seas have subsided across the local waters. Mariners
can expected seas of 3-5 feet and winds around 10-15 knots through
at least midweek next week. No Small Craft Advisories are anticipated
over the next 5-7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 80 89 78 / 10 20 20 40
STT 90 79 90 78 / 10 20 20 40

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/anumetservice/status/756462886797479941


]

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
153 PM AST FRI JUL 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure will continue to dominates the
local region through the Saturday night. An upper level trough
will approach the local area Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Very dry conditions prevailed across the local area
today. No shower activity was observed over land areas. Drier air
will continue across the region until at least Saturday.
However...the limited available moisture will combine with strong
daytime heating...sea breeze convergent and local mountains
effects to produce some showers and a couple of thunderstorms
across western interior and southwest sections of Puerto Rico
tomorrow afternoon. A slight increase in moisture is expected by
Sunday as an upper level trough moves close to the region. Better
moisture...with GFS computer model suggesting precipitable water
values up to 2.0 inches are forecast on Tuesday. Therefore...an
increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through
the forecast period across the local flying area. HZ due to Saharan
dust also expected to continue across the flying area. Low level
winds from the ENE at 10-20 knots with sea breeze variations and
higher gusts this afternoon diminishing after 22Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected.
Small Craft should exercise caution across the coastal waters of
southern Puerto Rico.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 89 78 89 / 20 20 40 40
STT 79 90 78 88 / 20 20 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 AM AST SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low/TUTT just northeast of Puerto Rico
will move over the local islands later today. This will help to
increase the instability and the chance of showers across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the weekend. Another surge
of moisture is expected on Tuesday next week. Then...drier and more
stable pattern will return to the islands by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A generally stable air mass will prevail across the
islands most of today. Saharan dust particles will continue to
diminish throughout the day. Subsidence cap will gradually weaken
as the TUTT moves over the local islands. This will allow moderate
showers to develop over portions of the Cordillera Central and
Southwest Puerto Rico during the afternoon due to the sea breeze
convergence and orographic effects.

The upper level trough/TUTT over the area on Sunday will promote
moisture transport across the local area. In addition...the unstable
environment will help to increase the coverage and intensity of the
showers and thunderstorms. Although...no significant rainfall
accumulations are expected during the weekend...periods of heavy
rainfall can`t ruled out.

The next surge of moisture is associated with a tropical wave. At
this time...operational models suggest that moisture associated
with the wave will likely reach the local region on Tuesday. As a
result...showers and a few thunderstorms are likely with the wave.
Stable pattern is forecast from midweek to the end of next week.
Another pulse of Saharan Dust will likely reach the local islands
by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail during
the next 24 hours. However, SHRA developing over western
interior/southwestern PR could create brief mvfr conditions and
mtn obscurations through at least 22Z, impacting mainly TJMZ and
the vicinity of TJPS/TJBQ. Low level winds will continue from the
ENE at 10-20 knots with sea breeze variations and higher gusts
after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Typical seas are forecast across the local waters. Mariners
can expect seas of 3-5 feet and winds around 10-15 knots over the
next several days. No Small Craft Advisories are anticipated over
the next 5-7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 79 / 20 40 40 30
STT 90 77 88 79 / 20 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
118 PM AST SAT JUL 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An inverted upper level trough over the region will
move to the west on Sunday. This feature will increase the
instability and the chance of showers across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands during the rest of weekend. Another surge of
moisture associated with a tropical wave expected to reach the
region late Monday and Tuesday next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Saharan dust particles diminished considerably
across the region today. Doppler weather radar indicated
isolated to scattered showers across eastern sections of Puerto
Rico as well as across the surrounding waters this morning and
early in the afternoon. This moisture is associated with an
inverted upper level trough across the region this afternoon. The
instability provided by the trough in combination with daytime
heating and local effects resulted in the development of showers
across western and southwest sections of Puerto Rico this afternoon.
This activity is expected to diminish rapidly after sunset.

Tonight, the upper trough will move to a position more favorable
for the development of showers and thunderstorms and therefore,
isolated to scattered showers will develop overnight and early
Sunday across USVI, Vieques, Culebra and Eastern sections of
Puerto Rico followed by showers and thunderstorms across Western
and interior PR Sunday Afternoon. Although...no significant
rainfall accumulations are expected on Sunday...periods of heavy
rainfall can`t ruled out.

Latest satellites images and surface analysis depicted a tropical
across 40 West this afternoon. Model guidance suggests that
moisture associated with this wave will likely reach the local
region on Tuesday. Another pulse of Saharan Dust will encompass
the region with the passage of the wave.

&&

.AVIATION... Isolated to scattered SHRA expected across Eastern
PR, USVI and the Leeward islands taf sites tonight and early
Sunday morning. Mostly VFR conditions expected across the rest of
the local flying area. SHRA developing over western and interior
PR could create brief MVFR conditions and mtn obscurations after
24/17 through at least 24/22Z, impacting mainly TJMZ and the
vicinity of TJPS/TJBQ. Easterly low level winds will diminish
tonight 10-15 knots increasing at 10-20 knots with sea breeze
variations and higher gusts after 24/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots are forecast
across the local waters. Mariners are urged to exercise caution
across parts of the waters due to winds, however...no Small Craft
Advisories are anticipated over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 79 89 / 40 40 30 30
STT 77 88 79 89 / 50 50 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
511 AM AST SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level trough/TUTT west of Puerto Rico is
enhancing the instability across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Another surge of moisture associated with a tropical wave
is expected on Tuesday. Drier and more stable pattern will return
to the islands by midweek. Then...Another TUTT will be positioned
over the region between Thursday and Friday bringing once again
unstable conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite Precipitable Water Analysis shows an area
of deep moisture associated with an induced trough over the Northeast
Caribbean Region. This high moisture content will combine with the
instability aloft to support scattered to numerous showers across
the local waters and portions of the islands today. Although...
most of the showers will remain over the local waters this morning...
some showers will move inland over the eastern third of Puerto Rico
the rest of the morning. Stronger showers and isolated thunderstorms
are expected over portions of the Cordillera Central and parts of
the North and West Puerto Rico this afternoon. The U.S. Virgin
Islands will experience scattered showers at times.

Slightly drier pattern is anticipated on Monday as the TUTT moves
over the Central and Wrst Caribbean. However...scattered showers
remain in the forecast...especially across western Puerto Rico
during the afternoon hours. Operational models indicate deep
moisture associated with a tropical wave reaching the local
region on Tuesday. This will result in another round of showers
and thunderstorms across the local area. Generally stable pattern
is forecast by midweek as a drier air mass with Saharan Dust will
reach the local islands.

Unstable conditions will likely return to the islands at the end
of the work week as another upper trough/TUTT will move over the
islands. Therefore...expect another round of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail, however,
passing trade wind showers could reach the Leeward, USVI and eastern
PR terminals thru the fcst period. Streamers are expected to develop
by mid to late morning across the USVI, resulting in periods of -RA
at times and SCT cigs between FL025-FL070. SHRA/TSRA will develop
over the interior and western PR with areas of mtn obscurations
between 16Z-22z, resulting in TEMPO MVFR conditions at TJBQ/TJMZ.
Also, SHRA can affect at times TJSJ during the afternoon hours. Low
level winds prevail E-ESE at 10-20 knots with sea breeze variations
after 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Typical seas are forecast across the local waters. Mariners
can expect seas of 3-5 feet and winds around 10-20 knots over the
next several days. Small craft operators should exercise due to
winds up to 20 knots across the coastal waters of Northern Puerto
Rico. However...no Small Craft Advisories are anticipated over
the next 5-7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 77 87 79 / 40 30 10 50
STT 88 78 89 79 / 50 30 20 50

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
129 PM AST SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...An inverted upper trough just to the west of Puerto
Rico will continue to enhance moisture transport across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands tonight. Another surge of
moisture associated with a weak tropical wave is expected to reach
the region on Tuesday. Drier air will move across the region by
midweek. Accordingly to model guidance, a more vigorous tropical
wave will reach the region by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Under the influence of an inverted upper trough,
isolated to scattered passing showers affected the USVI, Vieques,
Culebra, Eastern PR and the surrounding coastal waters this
morning and early this afternoon. This activity is expected to
combine with strong daytime heating and local orographic effects
to induce the development of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms across north, western and interior sections of
Puerto Rico this afternoon. The upper low is expected to move
farther to the west on Monday resulting in a slight improve in the
weather conditions.

Latest satellites images and surface analysis depicted a tropical
wave along 50 West this afternoon. Model guidance suggests that
moisture associated with this wave will likely reach the local
region on Tuesday. Another pulse of Saharan Dust is expected to
encompass the region with the passage of the wave. Accordingly
to model guidance, a more vigorous tropical wave will reach the
region by the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail with vicinity SHRA
across the Leeward, USVI and eastern PR terminals thru the fcst
period. Streamers are expected to persist across the USVI until
20Z, resulting in periods of SHRA at times and SCT cigs between
FL025-FL070. SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop over the northern,
interior and western PR with areas of mtn obscurations between
16Z-22Z, resulting in TEMPO MVFR conditions at TJBQ/TJMZ. SHRA can
also affect TJSJ during the rest of afternoon hours. Low level
winds prevail E-ESE at 10-20 knots

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect seas of 3-5 feet and winds around
10-20 knots over the next several days. Small craft operators
should exercise due to winds up to 20 knots across the coastal
waters of Northern Puerto Rico. However...no Small Craft
Advisories are anticipated over the next 5-7 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 77 87 79 89 / 30 20 50 50
STT 78 89 79 89 / 30 20 50 50

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
526 AM AST MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid level ridge over the western Atlantic will shift
westward over the next few days. Deep moisture associated with a
tropical wave is forecast to reach the local region on Tuesday.
Upper level trough/TUTT will dig southwestward and relocate over
the region between Thursday and Friday. Another tropical wave
expected late in the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite loops indicated bands of moisture embedded
in the trade wind flow approaching the Northeast Caribbean Region.
This moisture advection over the local area have resulted in showers
affecting the regional waters and the windward areas. Additional
showers will move inland over portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands
and eastern Puerto Rico the rest of the morning. Stronger showers
and isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions
of the West Interior and parts of the Northwest Puerto Rico this
afternoon. The U.S. Virgin Islands will experience isolated to
scattered showers at times.

Operational models indicate deep moisture associated with a tropical
wave reaching the local region on Tuesday. This will result in another
round of showers and thunderstorms across the local area. Moisture
and instability will diminish on Wednesday...reducing the shower
coverage across forecast area.

Unstable conditions will likely return to the islands at the end
of the work week as a upper trough/TUTT will move over the islands.
Then...another tropical wave is forecast to reach the local region
during the weekend. Therefore...moist and unstable pattern will
be likely the second part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected to prevail with
passing -SHRA across the Leeward, USVI and E PR flying area.
SHRA/TSRA expected over western PR with areas of mtn obscurations
between 16Z-22z, resulting in brief periods of MVFR conds at
TJBQ/TJMZ. Low level winds prevail E-ESE at 10-20 knots with sea
breeze variations after 14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect seas of 3-5 feet and winds around
10-20 knots over the next several days. Small craft operators should
exercise due to winds up to 20 knots across the coastal waters of
Northern Puerto Rico. Winds and seas may increase significantly
during the weekend as a stronger tropical wave moves across the
local waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 79 89 81 / 30 50 50 30
STT 88 81 87 81 / 30 50 50 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
205 PM AST MON JUL 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave will move across the area Tuesday. SAL
will encompass the region Wednesday and Thursday. Next tropical
wave is expected on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly sunny skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands this morning. Some light passing showers
affected the local islands..but were brief. This afternoon...some
showers with thunderstorms developed over the western interior and
northwest sections of Puerto Rico. This activity was locally
induced and should dissipated near sunset.

For tomorrow...a Tropical wave is expected to affect the local
area...increasing the changes for shower and thunderstorm activity
across the region. After the passage of this wave...an area of
Saharan air layer is expected to move across the region...which
will suppress the shower development across the region. It is not
until Sunday...better chances for showers and thunderstorms are
expected as an active tropical wave moves across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected during most of the period.
-SHRA expected across the Leeward, USVI and E PR flying area from
time to time during the afternoon. Brief periods of MVFR are
likely across western PR, due to SHRA/TSRA between 25/19Z-22z.
E-ESE surface winds at 15 to 20 kt with sea breeze variations and
higher gusts in/near shra/tsra. Winds are expected to drop at 5 to
15 knots overnight, although higher gusts can be expected in SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected.
Small Craft should exercise caution mainly across the atlantic
waters.

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
549 AM AST TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Tropical wave will continue to move across the
forecast area Today. Surface high pressure will continue across
the Atlantic waters. A drier mid level air mass with Saharan dust
will move over the islands on Wednesday and linger through
Thursday. An upper level trough will develop late Wednesday into
Thursday to the northeast of the islands and move westward quickly,
enhancing showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon across
the mountain ranges of PR. Next tropical wave is expected on
Friday followed by another one on Sunday.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
affected the Atlantic and Caribbean waters during the overnight
hours. A couple of thunderstorms affected the northeastern quadrant
of Puerto Rico with frequent lightning observed just between
Culebra and Fajardo. The doppler radar estimated between 0.75 to
near 1 inch of rain from Rio Grande to Trujillo Alto. These
showers and thunderstorms will continue through the day as the
tropical wave exits the local area in the evening hours. For this
afternoon, thunderstorm development is expected mainly over the
interior and NW quadrant of PR. Urban and small stream flooding
is expected due to already saturated soils across these areas.

For Wednesday, dry mid level air with SAL will limit shower
development over the islands. A TUTT low is forecast to develop to
the northeast of the area and move quickly over Hispaniola to
enhance showers and thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon. Moisture
will increase once again on Friday as a weak tropical
wave/easterly perturbation moves over the islands. Saharan dust is expected
once again on Saturday and on Sunday another wave is forecast to
enter the eastern Caribbean.


&&

.AVIATION...SHRA and TSRA associated with a tropical wave will
affect the flying area today. However...VFR conds will prevail
across most of the TAF sites, except in and around TJMZ and TJBQ
where mountain obscurations and brief MVFR conds are likely between
17Z-22Z. Low level winds prevail E at 10-20 kts with sea breeze
variations and gusty winds near the TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to remain below small craft advisory
criteria for the next several days. However, seas up to 6 feet and
east winds up to 20 knots are expected Today. Therefore, small
crafts should exercise caution across the Atlantic and Caribbean
waters. Thunderstorms are expected to continue through this
evening across the local waters. Periods of torrential rainfall,
frequent lightning and gusty winds are expected. Also, isolated
waterspouts can`t be ruled out.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 82 90 80 / 60 30 30 40
STT 89 81 89 80 / 60 30 30 40

[cycloneye]

AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
142 PM AST TUE JUL 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical wave will exit the local area this evening. Followed by
a dry air mass with Saharan Dust Particles on Wednesday and
Thursday. Then another easterly tropical wave is forecast to move
across the islands on Friday. The model guidance are forecasting a
strong easterly wave around Sunday. At the surface, a broad
surface high pressure across the northeast Atlantic will continue
to produce a moderate east wind flow across the region for the
next several days. At the upper levels, a TUTT low will build over
the region Thursday into Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the showers and thunderstorms that affected the eastern
half of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the
morning hours dissipated or moved over the Atlantic waters.
However, still expecting more showers and thunderstorms to
develop along the interior and northwestern portions of Puerto
Rico this afternoon. As a result the potential for urban and
small stream flooding, frequent lightning and gusty winds still
possible across these sections.

Satellite imagery and model guidance suggested the arrival of a
dry air mass with Saharan dust particles as this wave moves away
from the CWA. As a result, limit shower/thunderstorm activity is
expected on Wednesday. A TUTT low is forecast to build over the
region by Thursday and Friday. This upper level feature is
expected to enhance the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
Another tropical wave is forecast to enter the Eastern Caribbean,
increasing the tropical moisture across the local islands. Saharan
dust is expected once again on Saturday and on Sunday another wave
is forecast to enter the eastern Caribbean.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will prevail across most of the TAF sites,
except in and around TJMZ and TJBQ where mountain obscurations and
brief MVFR conds are likely between 18Z-22Z. Low level winds
prevail E at 10-20 kts with sea breeze variations and gusty winds
near the TSRA.


&&

.MARINE...
Small crafts should exercise caution across the Atlantic and
Caribbean waters due to seas up to 6 feet across the region.
The potential for thunderstorms still expected over the western
half of the local waters, as the tropical wave move away this
evening. Periods of torrential rainfall, frequent lightning and
gusty winds are expected. Also, isolated waterspouts can`t be
ruled out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 90 80 89 / 30 30 40 40
STT 81 89 80 88 / 30 30 40 40

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
534 AM AST WED JUL 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...A generally stable air mass will prevail across the
forecast area today. Saharan Air Layer is still present over the
area...resulting in hazy skies and somewhat reduced visibilities.
Then...upper level trough/TUTT will retrogress across the
forecast area on Thursday...enhancing the development of showers
and thunderstorms across the region. The next tropical wave
expected on Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fair weather will prevail across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Saharan Air Layer will persist
across the area over the next few days...resulting in hazy skies
and somewhat reduced visibilities. Although...relatively dry and
stable pattern will continue across the local islands over the
next 24 hours...diurnal induced showers and a thunderstorm or two
can not ruled out across Northwest Puerto Rico this afternoon.
Elsewhere...little or no shower activity is anticipated today.

Then...a upper trough/TUTT will move over the local region on
Thursday enhancing the shower and thunderstorm activity. Strong
thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon due to the influence
of the TUTT. At the same time...Saharan Dust will be presented
over the area...limiting the coverage of the showers and
thunderstorms. On Thursday...afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will focus mainly over the Central Interior...West and South
portions of Puerto Rico.

For Saturday...Drier and stable air mass is forecast ahead of the
next tropical wave. Moisture associated with the wave will likely
reach the local region on Sunday. This unstable environment will
support the development of scattered to numerous showers across
the regional waters and portions of the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected to continue this
morning across the local flying area. Only VCSH due to ISOLD SHRA
expected over the Leewards, USVI and Eastern PR taf sites. East
winds will continue at around 10KT or less but increasing to 10-15
knots after 27/13Z with sea breeze variations. VCSH/VCTS likely at
TJBQ and TJMZ after 27/17Z with TSRA possible at TJMZ after 27/19Z.
Saharan dust will reduce visibilities across some of the local taf
sites during the next 24 hours.

&&

.MARINE...Winds of 10-20 knots and seas of 3-5 feet are expected
across the local waters over the next several days. Small craft
operators should exercise caution across the coastal waters of
Puerto Rico this afternoon due to winds around 20 knots. There is
a moderate risk of rip currents mainly across northern Puerto Rico
and some coastal areas of southeastern Puerto Rico including Culebra
and Vieques.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 81 90 80 / 30 40 40 30
STT 90 80 90 79 / 30 40 40 30