Florida Weather

[tropicwatch]

There is an upper level low in the Gulf of Mexico stirring up some thunder bumpers along the Florida and Louisiana coastlines.

[gatorcane]

Don't summers feel strangely dry suddenly?

Yes they do. How about this pattern we are in across South Florida? Deep easterly flow with dry and dusty conditions at times continue for the foreseeable future. Lawns are drying up across SE Florida.

Friday into the weekend, as high pressure drifts northward the
southern periphery of the high keeps most of the Florida peninsula
under an easterly flow aloft surging drier air and Saharan dust into
region. This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms
along the east coast and focus more over the west through the
weekend. By next week the easterly flow continues with no
significant changes to the weather pattern. Best potential for
afternoon showers during the day will be focus over the interior and
west and less along the east coast. A mid level upper trough
embedded in the deep easterlies crossing South Florida on Wednesday,
potentially enhances coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain about the same, with highs lower to mid 90s
and lows mid to upper 70s.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[A.V.]

Don't summers feel strangely dry suddenly?

Yes they do. How about this pattern we are in across South Florida? Deep easterly flow with dry and dusty conditions at times continue for the foreseeable future. Lawns are drying up across SE Florida.

Friday into the weekend, as high pressure drifts northward the
southern periphery of the high keeps most of the Florida peninsula
under an easterly flow aloft surging drier air and Saharan dust into
region. This will limit the potential for afternoon thunderstorms
along the east coast and focus more over the west through the
weekend. By next week the easterly flow continues with no
significant changes to the weather pattern. Best potential for
afternoon showers during the day will be focus over the interior and
west and less along the east coast. A mid level upper trough
embedded in the deep easterlies crossing South Florida on Wednesday,
potentially enhances coverage of showers and thunderstorms.
Temperatures will remain about the same, with highs lower to mid 90s
and lows mid to upper 70s.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

Saharan dust is enough to limit rain chances? I always thought effects were just limited to hazy conditions.

[NDG]

Last evening was very impressive the lightning show to my west.

https://www.facebook.com/FOX35News/vide ... 015867573/

[Patrick99]

In this deep easterly flow regime the past few days, we have at least been getting fast-moving heavy showers and occasional thunder near the Miami-Dade coastal areas, mostly at night between 9PM-1AM. Some in the morning, but past around 8AM, they seem to fizzle out.

It's rainfall, which is good, but it's still not helping cool things down at 3PM. Just got the electric bill for 2/3 of June and 1/3 of July.....highest it's ever been. Since there were barely any PM storms, I used more juice to keep home at a livable temperature.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Same here on the electric. It's been a hot July. Pattern looks ominous when tropical systems start forming. If you look at the water vape loop you can see a trof/ ull coming tonight that is east of bahamas as well as another north of puerto rico. Could be some fire works tonight.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

https://www.wunderground.com/DisplayDis ... =Hollywood

[MetroMike]

Most of the storms in the bay area have been fickle and wimpy to hang together for any length of time. Seems like my neighborhood is a no storm zone. Strange pattern for mid July.

[StormingB81]

Orlando Intl had a wind just of 63 MPH this afternoon

[NDG]

Very tropical out there, finally we are seeing the deep moist easterlies this week, something that has been absent just about all summer until now.

[gatorcane]

Yep deep layer easterlies are entrenched across Florida and a sign we are heading deeper into the summer. Picking up some late night showers here along the SE Coast of Florida with this pattern.

[Patrick99]

Ugh, it is going to be nasty today. Very little cloud cover this AM, and while the easterly flow has relaxed a bit, it's still going to be more than enough to push anything that develops straight to Naples.

[gatorcane]

This east wind pattern for South Florida is rather persistent. Basically looks like the entire month of July will feature this pattern which is afternoon storms on the SW coast of Florida and late night / early morning storms on the SE coast. Usually you see breaks in this pattern from time-to-time but not so this summer so far.

NWS Miami snippet:

So, summed up, look for typical South Florida showers and
afternoon thunderstorms, mainly in the interior and Gulf coast.
Some of the storms may bring some gusty wind, and heavy rain. This
pattern looks to remain in place at least into the middle of next
week.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[NDG]

Been meaning to post on how warm the coastal waters from eastern central FL to Jax area have been this summer, widespread mid to upper 80s. Usually by this time of the year we get upwelling that cools surf temps down to the 70s, but it looks like is not going to happen this year.

[NDG]

Nice tropical wave passing through S FL & the Keys this morning, it even has a slight vorticity to it.

[Patrick99]

There's a little blob from that tropical wave affecting the Keys and Miami-Dade this morning - that cloud cover is certainly welcome.

[gatorcane]

no rain in Boca Raton from this feature. It's quite dry around here. I think we have only seen measurable rain twice this month so far.

[MetroMike]

no rain in Boca Raton from this feature. It's quite dry around here. I think we have only seen measurable rain twice this month so far.

Yeah very dry here too. Sad excuse for the rainy season but what can we do.

[Patrick99]

We had a nice rainy evening on Saturday. But now, it's back to nothing but hot sun all day, with any rising cloud that tries to form quickly blown off to the W-NW by the sea breeze.

Is it too much of a stretch to suggest that if this pattern holds through August and September, SE Florida could be at an elevated risk of a hurricane hit from the east? I know these things can change, but this pattern has been pretty well entrenched since the beginning of June.....and looking at NWS Miami's extended forecast, it doesn't look like it's going anywhere in the near future.

[gatorcane]

While we cannot know the steering patterns that will setup during the heart of the hurricane season months for South Florida (Aug-Oct), I think there might be an elevated risk this year. We actually had a similar pattern last year, only the record-breaking Atlantic shear from the strongest El Nino on record combined with some systems ripping through the big islands (Erika) getting torn up saved us from a legitimate tropical threat in South Florida. This year things look more normal in terms of shear so will be looking east for sure. Actually South Florida gets hit more from the south from Caribbean systems so that will need to watch closely especially October.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[cycloneye]

Very interesting and important blog that Dr Jeff Masters made about the Tampa area and is called "Extreme 'Grey Swan' Hurricanes in Tampa Bay: a Potential Future Catastrophe".

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffM ... #commentop