Looks like el nino will be around for the 2004 cane season

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 6:11 pm

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/c ... cordxy.gif

According to the grafic looks like el nino will come back when the 2004 season starts by june but it is too early to say if ENSO will be at the warm phase at that time because many things can happen but if this is confirmed and el nino arrives by the 2004 season it may slow the hurricane season but again time will tell.

weatherlover427 · #2 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 6:13 pm

Are you talking about by the winter or by next tropical season, Luis? :?

ColdFront77 · #3 Postby **ColdFront77** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 6:15 pm

I believe Luis is referring to the 2004 Hurricane Season. After all, this is the Tropics Forum.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 6:16 pm

Yes hurricane season

Dakotawx558 · #5 Postby **Dakotawx558** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 6:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/cmb/sst_forecast/images/cmb.recordxy.gif

According to the grafic looks like el nino will come back when the 2004 season starts but it is too early to say if ENSO will be at the warm phase because many things can happen but if this is confirmed and el nino arrives by the 2004 season it may slow the hurricane season but again time will tell.

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml

All model guidance is in favor of neutral conditions by April of 2004. At this point in time, there are no indications that we will see a La Nina or an El Nino event develop in the Pacific.

It is likely, however, that the basic framework should set up for an active 2004 season: Neutral ENSO, westerly QBO, and we will probably see warm SSTA's given the fact that we recently experienced an Atlantic cooling (during 2002 season). 2004 should be just as active as this season has been, and perhaps moreso. My feeling is that the best analog for 2004 at this point is 1961, and that is based on my expectations of a neutral ENSO state and westerly QBO. Notice the extensive levels of major hurricane activity the Alantic. Another possible analog is 1980...another year of extensive hurricane activity despite any strong signal from ENSO.

weatherlover427 · #6 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 6:23 pm

A dumb question on my part :oops:

please excuse the stupidity. :o

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 6:26 pm

No josh it was my fault because I didn't typed the word cane but all is cleared now.

weatherlover427 · #8 Postby **weatherlover427** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 6:34 pm

Yep ... much better, thanks for clearing that up.

#9 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 7:09 pm

How can this be? We had El Nino just last year.

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 7:27 pm

The models suggest overwhelmingly neutral by April - no sign of El Nino. But I would like to point out that studies on the relationship between El Nino conditions and tropical development show very little correlation between a weak to moderate El Nino and reduced development in the lower tropics. Only with strong El Nino conditions (1997, 1983, for example) is there evidence of reduced tropical development.

AussieMark · #11 Postby **AussieMark** » Tue Sep 23, 2003 7:34 pm

look at 2002 el nino

12 Tropical Storms
3 Hurricanes
2 Major Hurricane

#12 Postby **btangy** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 12:03 am

That would be a very early onset El Nino; probably one of the earliest I've seen if it were to verify.

ColdFront77 · #13 Postby **ColdFront77** » Wed Sep 24, 2003 12:29 am

Joshua21Young wrote:A dumb question on my part please excuse the stupidity. :o

Sorry about that, Joshua. Thought I'd point it out. I wanted to be clear about it myself. Thanks Luis.

Looks like el nino will be around for the 2004 cane season

Looks like el nino will be around for the 2004 cane season

Re: Looks like el nino will be around for the 2004 cane seas

Neutral

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