2016 EPAC Season

[CaliforniaResident]

It boggles my mind how the EPAC ahead in number of named storms compared to last year at this time (even of the storms are much weaker).
Especially considering how June had a very active start in the Atlantic and was dead in the Pacific (which I attributed to the transition to La Nina and was expecting the trend to continue throughout the summer).

[TheStormExpert]

It boggles my mind how the EPAC ahead in number of named storms compared to last year at this time (even of the storms are much weaker).
Especially considering how June had a very active start in the Atlantic and was dead in the Pacific (which I attributed to the transition to La Nina and was expecting the trend to continue throughout the summer).

The effects of the La Niña seem to be lagging behind.

[Yellow Evan]

+PDO/La Nina years, especially after an El Nino can at least be moderately active. 1985 was a La Nina/+PDO year and is the 4th busiest EPAC season on record. But I certainly didn't expect the monsoon trough to stay in the EPAC for so much this month.

[Yellow Evan]

A few EPS members show a couple systems around August 2.

[Ntxw]

+PDO/La Nina years, especially after an El Nino can at least be moderately active. 1985 was a La Nina/+PDO year and is the 4th busiest EPAC season on record. But I certainly didn't expect the monsoon trough to stay in the EPAC for so much this month.

Another neutral almost weak Nina with a lot of ACE is 1983 coming from an El Nino. 1984 is another one that was borderline cold. +PDO plays a big role. All were prolific ACE years. I don't think the EPAC is going to flip a switch and shut down like everyone seems to be thinking unless that +PDO goes away which it won't anytime soon.

Big ACE years comes in bunches and 2016 more likely than not is going to bunch with 2014 and 2015. Just like 1982-1985 and 1990-1994 periods.

[tarheelprogrammer]

+PDO/La Nina years, especially after an El Nino can at least be moderately active. 1985 was a La Nina/+PDO year and is the 4th busiest EPAC season on record. But I certainly didn't expect the monsoon trough to stay in the EPAC for so much this month.

Another neutral almost weak Nina with a lot of ACE is 1983 coming from an El Nino. 1984 is another one that was borderline cold. +PDO plays a big role. All were prolific ACE years. I don't think the EPAC is going to flip a switch and shut down like everyone seems to be thinking unless that +PDO goes away which it won't anytime soon.

Agreed and it will create a slow Atlantic season.

[Yellow Evan]

Agreed and it will create a slow Atlantic season.

1985 was a good year in the Atlantic too, and the AMO is much higher now than then. The 1880's and 1930's are believed to be high periods of EPAC and ATL activity too based on AMO/PDO readings and what limited knowledge we do have of storms back then,

[tarheelprogrammer]

Agreed and it will create a slow Atlantic season.

1985 was a good year in the Atlantic too, and the AMO is much higher now than then. The 1880's and 1930's are believed to be high periods of EPAC and ATL activity too based on AMO/PDO readings and what limited knowledge we do have of storms back then,

I asked Philip Klotzbach if there was a correlation between an active Pacific and a slow Atlantic and he told me most of the time when the Pacific is active the Atlantic is dead but not all the time.

[Ntxw]

I wonder what those years were like in the WPAC? Its been pretty quiet out that way and I wonder if there is a correlation between the two in similar years

[Yellow Evan]

I asked Philip Klotzbach if there was a correlation between an active Pacific and a slow Atlantic and he told me most of the time when the Pacific is active the Atlantic is dead but not all the time.

In terms of the reliable record, that statement is true. I'm curious what a +AMO/+PDO decade would yield though.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder what those years were like in the WPAC? Its been pretty quiet out that way and I wonder if there is a correlation between the two in similar years

1983-85 was fairly average to slightly below average.

[Kingarabian]

GFS long range showing our H and I storms.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS long range showing our H and I storms.

Howard and Ivette, yes. Hopefully they're stronger than Frank/Georgette.

[gatorcane]

If the GFS is correct, the EPAC won't be letting up anytime soon

[HurricaneRyan]

A couple work days go by for me and we have Frank and Georgette. Crap!

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS continues with the outbreak

[gatorcane]

Three more storms if the GEM is correct

[gatorcane]

Two more named systems and possibly a third on the 12Z ECMWF:

[Ntxw]

Epac is closing in on 80 units with August, Sept, Oct, and Nov left to go. Looks more and more like the early to mid 1980s type Nino-Nina switch years.

[Kingarabian]

Imagine how much higher it would be if the first four invests actually panned out.