EPAC: GEORGETTE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Eye cooling again.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2016 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 15:55:32 N Lon : 125:39:29 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.2 / 965.9mb/ 94.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.8 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +1.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C

[Yellow Evan]

Eye warming again.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 JUL 2016 Time : 233000 UTC
Lat : 16:04:02 N Lon : 125:42:35 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 962.0mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.8 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +7.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Clearly T6.0 here with WMG surrounded by B embedded in LG.

[Ntxw]

Very picturesque. Just hold on a little longer and Cat 4 easy.

[1900hurricane]

It's very nice to see Georgette make a recovery after taking a touch of easterly shear a couple of days ago. If it weren't for that shear (probably at least partially influenced by Frank's equatorial outflow channel), Georgette may have actually taken off sooner.

[dexterlabio]

This is a clear Cat3 right now if you ask me. Cat4 seems not a stretched possibility..

[dexterlabio]

Given all the cold ENSO talk, it is impressive that the EPAC can still pull off this kind of things in a single month...

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

   EP, 08, 201607250000,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1610N, 12580W,      , 1, 115, 2,     ,  ,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , E,   SAB,  MT,  VIM, 1, 6060 /////,      ,   , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=6.0 BO EYE  MET=5.0 PT=5.5 FTBO DT

[Yellow Evan]

Given all the cold ENSO talk, it is impressive that the EPAC can still pull off this kind of things in a single month...

Because of +PDO. Most of the Nina/+PDO years in the 80's were like this.

[Ntxw]

Given all the cold ENSO talk, it is impressive that the EPAC can still pull off this kind of things in a single month...

Because +PDO.

Yep and it doesn't hurt that the Nina progress is very slow and won't likely settle until well later. More like a 1983 than 1998.

[Yellow Evan]

Raw T's have leveled off but Final T's are rising.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 JUL 2016 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 16:06:28 N Lon : 125:45:41 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 958.0mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.9 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +9.4C Cloud Region Temp : -65.3C

Scene Type : EYE

[cycloneye]

105kts.

EP, 08, 2016072500, , BEST, 0, 161N, 1258W, 105, 961, HU

[Yellow Evan]

TAFB I assume was at 5.5 which makes since given their history with Dvorak

[gatorcane]

Beautiful on satellite. EPAC continues to roll in the year of what La Niña? How about "La Nada" to use Ntwx's phrase. I think not just PDO, but waters north of the equator and south of Mexico were quite a bit above normal, much like an El Niño. Basically we are seeing residual El Niño effects from the 2015 Godzilla El Niño. Our met Alyono, noticed these SSTs many months ago and mentioned we could see some big activity with some threats to Hawaii and things are panning out that way.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/757385511795384320

[1900hurricane]

Not surprisingly, structure as revealed by microwave is quite good.

[Yellow Evan]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 953.7mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : +12.2C Cloud Region Temp : -63.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[gatorcane]

Impressive

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing T6.5.

[1900hurricane]

With the sun going down now, the resulting net increase in OLR could help give Georgette that little bump. BD whites are already noticeably increasing in the CDO.

Also, I'm curious why SSD's and RAMMB's BD images are calibrated slightly differently. RAMMB seems to be running a little colder than SSD. Here's RAMMB's 0200Z BD image to compare with the SSD image above of the same timestamp.