2016 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

EURO takes Nida through the Philippines and slams it to west of Hong Kong at 978mb...

GFS on the other hand strengthens this big time. Down to 938mb as it nears Hainan...

[euro6208]

Very slow season thus far that many people will probrably let their guard down.

Seasons coming off a nino tends to produce systems nearer land and where the warmest waters are located so can rapidly intensify as we've seen many times and in many cases these storms are monster storms that make landfall...High end Cat 4 to extraordinary Cat 5's...

I cannot rule out this possibility as we head deeper down the season. I can feel Nepartak is just the son of the Gods that's coming...

[euro6208]

EURO NIDA




GFS NIDA

[euro6208]

Super Long Range showing 3 more systems...

[euro6208]

I've never seen the WPAC this warm. Potential CP and Max Winds are off the chart and cover a large area. Looks like a devastating season down the road despite the record slowness.




Large area of +30C and anomalies +1.0C from normal.

[1900hurricane]

The Western Pacific looks like it's beginning to wake up. In addition to currently present Mirinae, guidance is beginning to key in on two areas of potential development in the next ten days. The first stems from a loose area of vorticity currently in the vicinity of Palau associated with an ill-defined monsoon trough, which can be seen below in both the CIMSS low level wind and 850 mb vorticity analysis.





This disturbance is slated to drift to the north and west while slowly consolidating these next few days. Development east of the Philippines is nearly unanimous among numerical guidance, but it is worth noting that where exactly the center consolidates will likely play an important part in the future track. By 12Z July 29th (about 2.5 days from this writing), the ECMWF depicts the surface center not far off the southern Samar coast. However, at the same time, the GFS has the center of the upcoming system scores of miles to the north and east.





From there, the disparity only grows larger. The initially further SW ECMWF sends the system across northern Luzon at tau 120 and then into the Hong Kong area by tau 168 (Loop). This is in stark contrast to the GFS, which sends the system through the southern Ryukyus by 12Z next Tuesday (Loop). Both the EPS and GEFS ensemble means are in good agreement with their respective deterministic runs, meaning a large spread exists in the American and European model suites. Canadian guidance actually splits their difference nicely, sending the system north of Luzon and into Taiwan. Considering recent model performance in the basin with Nepartak and Mirinae, I'm more inclined to favor left of center in the guidance envelope at this present time.

As far as intensity goes, track (and the resulting landmasses the system encounters) will likely play an important role. The waters of the Philippine Sea are currently some of the warmest and most heat-laden in the entire world right now, so that certainly is a plus for system development. Shear forecasts are not always the most reliable several days in advance, but conditions for the most part do not look particularly unfavorable. An upper level low between the Marianas and Japan may provide some northerly shear should the system become too close, but it's also possible that the low may provide an outflow channel if the positioning is correct.



Obviously traversing Luzon or Taiwan would be a detriment to development and intensification, but perhaps the biggest future track independent detriment is how far west in the basin the incipient disturbance already is. Even in the most favorable of conditions, monsoon disturbances originating from low latitudes usually need several days to fully consolidate. By that time, the system may already be making landfall, encountering northerly shear in the subtropics, or taking in dry air from the Asian mainland. It's not the enemy it was for Mirinae, but time is certainly not this likely system's greatest ally.

If one takes a look into the 7-10 day range, guidance is suggesting another possible system developing within a couple hundred miles of the Marianas. EPS is perhaps the most aggressive with the system, distinctly showing the system in the SLP mean. GEFS has a bit more spread, but several members are in decent agreement with the EPS and are showing a system in the same general area.





With this possible system being temporally far away, it's too early to try keying in on specifics, but it is something to look for in future model runs.

[dexterlabio]

The Western Pacific looks like it's beginning to wake up. In addition to currently present Mirinae, guidance is beginning to key in on two areas of potential development in the next ten days. The first stems from a loose area of vorticity currently in the vicinity of Palau associated with an ill-defined monsoon trough, which can be seen below in both the CIMSS low level wind and 850 mb vorticity analysis.





This disturbance is slated to drift to the north and west while slowly consolidating these next few days. Development east of the Philippines is nearly unanimous among numerical guidance, but it is worth noting that where exactly the center consolidates will likely play an important part in the future track. By 12Z July 29th (about 2.5 days from this writing), the ECMWF depicts the surface center not far off the southern Samar coast. However, at the same time, the GFS has the center of the upcoming system scores of miles to the north and east.





From there, the disparity only grows larger. The initially further SW ECMWF sends the system across northern Luzon at tau 120 and then into the Hong Kong area by tau 168 (Loop). This is in stark contrast to the GFS, which sends the system through the southern Ryukyus by 12Z next Tuesday (Loop). Both the EPS and GEFS ensemble means are in good agreement with their respective deterministic runs, meaning a large spread exists in the American and European model suites. Canadian guidance actually splits their difference nicely, sending the system north of Luzon and into Taiwan. Considering recent model performance in the basin with Nepartak and Mirinae, I'm more inclined to favor left of center in the guidance envelope at this present time.

As far as intensity goes, track (and the resulting landmasses the system encounters) will likely play an important role. The waters of the Philippine Sea are currently some of the warmest and most heat-laden in the entire world right now, so that certainly is a plus for system development. Shear forecasts are not always the most reliable several days in advance, but conditions for the most part do not look particularly unfavorable. An upper level low between the Marianas and Japan may provide some northerly shear should the system become too close, but it's also possible that the low may provide an outflow channel if the positioning is correct.



Obviously traversing Luzon or Taiwan would be a detriment to development and intensification, but perhaps the biggest future track independent detriment is how far west in the basin the incipient disturbance already is. Even in the most favorable of conditions, monsoon disturbances originating from low latitudes usually need several days to fully consolidate. By that time, the system may already be making landfall, encountering northerly shear in the subtropics, or taking in dry air from the Asian mainland. It's not the enemy it was for Mirinae, but time is certainly not this likely system's greatest ally.

If one takes a look into the 7-10 day range, guidance is suggesting another possible system developing within a couple hundred miles of the Marianas. EPS is perhaps the most aggressive with the system, distinctly showing the system in the SLP mean. GEFS has a bit more spread, but several members are in decent agreement with the EPS and are showing a system in the same general area.





With this possible system being temporally far away, it's too early to try keying in on specifics, but it is something to look for in future model runs.

Very nice write-up! I'm actually watching 96W at the moment, this might be another GFS vs. Euro round. I know the Euro has not performed well so far, but I'm more inclined to favor its latest solution.

[1900hurricane]

Thanks! I actually modified it slightly and turned it into a blog post on Weather Underground. That thing just kept getting longer and longer as I kept typing it.

[euro6208]

96W THREAD

It's up

[euro6208]

CMC has a very active WPAC coming to life. It wants to develop 3 cyclones, one of them swallowing the other!



Long range EURO with 2 possible cyclones.

[euro6208]

GFS kinda agrees with the EURO and CMC on a high latitude system northeast of the Marianas. 00Z agrees with 00Z's CMC on 2 systems but 06Z agrees with EURO's 00Z but stronger a typhoon racing away...

[euro6208]

NWS

In the long range, ECMWF still remains aggressive in developing a
circulation to the north, although, now it has shifted the
circulation farther to the north...closer to 20N...and then sends
it slowly northwest. GFS shows a weaker circulation in generally
the same area, but with much less precipitation. The two models do
agree in bringing Marianas winds around to the southwest around
midweek.

[Darvince]

The latest CMC has that high-latitude system near the Marianas being much bigger, so I'm thinking it's sniffing out a gigantic slop gyre like 2015 Choi-wan.

00Z GFS has it being so big that it doesn't develop
00Z Euro has it being enormous as well, sort of halfway between GFS and CMC, only deepening slowly.

[euro6208]

Kelvin Wave moving through responsible for the formation of Mirinae and soon Nida...



And here comes the MJO...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

EURO still consistent on developing Omais north of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

EURO still consistent on developing Omais north of the Marianas...

GFS not so much...

[euro6208]

EURO with Omais northwest of Guam and developing Conson east of the Marianas...

[euro6208]

Bit better...1000mb now from GFS

[euro6208]

NWS

Little change has been made to the forecast, as models still show
some mid-level drying today and tonight, then returning moisture
with a weak trough for the weekend with isolated thunderstorms.
But around Monday the GFS and the ECMWF begin to part ways. The
ECMWF takes an area of disturbed weather currently just NW of Wake
Island and develops it rather aggressively into a broad monsoon
circulation NE of the Marianas on Tuesday, with a monsoon tail
developing into the Marianas, and winds reaching 30 kt near the
circulation center by Thursday night well NE of the Marianas. The
GFS also develops the Wake Island disturbance, but much more
weakly than the ECMWF, with winds not much over 10 kt, and much
less rainfall. For now, forecast confidence is fairly high through
Sunday night, as the models are in good agreement then. But
confidence is low starting Monday, both in winds and weather,
until the models converge on how the circulation will develop and
affect the Marianas.