Vigorous Tropical Wave Moving Off Africa - (Is INVEST 96L)

[gatorcane]

We have the ECMWF and UKMET showing development within 5 days along with a closed low the CMC develops.

I believe the NHC may mention this area for possible development.

I circled the wave below. Broad circulation is very evident with deep convection starting to fire:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24



ECMWF:


UKMET:


CMC:

[Nimbus]

Each successive wave coming off Africa has been clearing out the SAL near the Cape Verde islands.
Do you think we will have a July invest or will the NHC assume an early organization will dissipate?

[Kazmit]

I'm not too sure what will happen to this one. Every tropical wave this month that has moved off of Africa has failed to develop until they've reached the Pacific. As much as I would like it to develop, I doubt the conditions are favourable enough- the SAL is a giant storm killer

[JaxGator]

I think the HWRF develops this too somewhat. Note the High above it.
http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee88 ... 7aqwll.png

[RL3AO]

I'm not too sure what will happen to this one. Every tropical wave this month that has moved off of Africa has failed to develop until they've reached the Pacific. As much as I would like it to develop, I doubt the
conditions are favourable enough- the SAL is a giant storm killer

Everything is progressing as the calendar suggests it should. Pressures are falling, dry air is slowly getting pushed back, and the waves across Africa are increasing in intensity. I don't expect either of these waves to develop, but they're getting there.

[Kazmit]

I'm not too sure what will happen to this one. Every tropical wave this month that has moved off of Africa has failed to develop until they've reached the Pacific. As much as I would like it to develop, I doubt the
conditions are favourable enough- the SAL is a giant storm killer

Everything is progressing as the calendar suggests it should. Pressures are falling, dry air is slowly getting pushed back, and the waves across Africa are increasing in intensity. I don't expect either of these waves to develop, but they're getting there.

True, I think by early August, we should start seeing conditions favourable enough for an increase in tropical activity. This dry air is quite common for July, but should back off by the time August rolls around.

[Emmett_Brown]

Even if these initial waves get knocked down a bit by SAL, we will need to watch these as they get close to our neighborhood. Storms that form far east often don't make it across before recurving. The ones that form further west are more worrisome.

[hurricanes1234]

I was wondering, when last did we see a period of inactivity this long? I mean if we don't get a storm by mid-August, that'll be 2 months without a tropical cyclone!

[tarheelprogrammer]

I was wondering, when last did we see a period of inactivity this long? I mean if we don't get a storm by mid-August, that'll be 2 months without a tropical cyclone!

2009 I believe.

[Javlin]

Even if these initial waves get knocked down a bit by SAL, we will need to watch these as they get close to our neighborhood. Storms that form far east often don't make it across before recurving. The ones that form further west are more worrisome.

That my contention also and the high mentioned in the above post from HWRF is of concern.

[Hammy]

I was wondering, when last did we see a period of inactivity this long? I mean if we don't get a storm by mid-August, that'll be 2 months without a tropical cyclone!

2009 I believe.

2009 had not so much as a depression from late May until August 11 or so, so basically the record as far as recent seasons.. It's noteworthy that as far as named storms, 1999 nothing between June 18 and August 19, and 1998 had nothing (not even a depression) until July 27.

[gatorcane]

Pretty good signal from the GFS ensembles



You can see this massive wave about ready to roll off Africa

[JaxGator]

Looks intense at the moment.

[Gustywind]

Pretty good signal from the GFS ensembles



You can see this massive wave about ready to roll off Africa

Hey Gatorcane, let's see how it could respond to the poof test first and then wait and see if a big if something potent is maybe in store.

[TheStormExpert]

Add the 12z JMA model to the list that develops this tropical wave about to exit Africa.

[floridasun78]

thing will chance on Atlantic side was we go into aug we now starting getting affect of La Niña more as we go into aug and sep i hope we ready because we see as active as we did PAC ocean past month models want start getting our side more active soon all say it dead season watch out we going for wild ride as aug come in i notice we seen last SAL coming by Florida now and Atlantic that well know happen in july let see how all place out i be here with you all ride i need keep eye because i here fl like rest of you guys on both coast

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/758228736672141312

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A tropical wave located along the coast of western Africa is
producing a large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower
activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for some development of this disturbance during the next several
days while it moves generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[Fego]

Finally!, there we go. Kind of strange performance by the GFS.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 96L is up