2016 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to Day 16)

[tolakram]

Link to thread for this wave: viewtopic.php?p=2514408#p2514408

[Alyono]

looking at the simulated IR from the MU, there is very strong shear in the MDR that will develop in the coming days

[TheStormExpert]

Long range 18z GFS at it again with development in the Tropical Atlantic.

[TheStormExpert]

looking at the simulated IR from the MU, there is very strong shear in the MDR that will develop in the coming days

18z GFS does show a few windows of increasing shear with pockets of lighter shear.

[TheStormExpert]

Joe B. is tweeting about the Atlantic again.

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/758078405996720128

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/758082480083701760

[NDG]

I wouldn't be going by the GFS's wind shear forecast past 72 hrs.

Here is a good example of what it was forecasting for the Caribbean just 7 days ago for 18z today, widespread 20-40 knots of windshear across that area:



Here is the actual windshear analyzes at 18z, no where close as hostile as the GFS was forecasting:

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/758108290475696130

[Alyono]

Not surprisingly, CMC has dropped that East Coast storm

[stormwise]

https://i.imgsafe.org/854f08ca04.png

EC has a feature around the islands @120hrs.

[Alyono]

looks close to a TD on the EC at times, but it dies out in the Bahamas. Maybe a fine line between development and no development in the environment?

[Hammy]

looks close to a TD on the EC at times, but it dies out in the Bahamas. Maybe a fine line between development and no development in the environment?

Could proximity to land also be inhibiting development on this run?

[stormwise]

https://s31.postimg.org/46phtcamz/ecmwf ... atl_21.png
Maybe a rain event with some high surf?

[USTropics]

Ensemble probability up to 60%:

[TheStormExpert]

Ensemble probability up to 60%:

http://i.imgur.com/I38Yg4B.png

What Ensembles are those by the way?

[USTropics]

HFIP Probability products:
CIRA, Mark DeMaria and Andrea Schumacher, co-leads
Operational NHC wind speed probability model with global model ensemble tracks. Plots are not based on one model, several ensemble models go into the solution: 133 tracks used: GFS (20), CMC (20), EMCWF (50), FNMOC (20), and UKMET (23).

GFDL, Tim Marchok, lead
o Ensemble-based probability storm formation, 2012 08 03 00. Tracker software is run on multiple global model ensembles (the referenced image)
o Ensemble perturbation forecast storm tracks, 2012 08 03 00. (Not shown on hfip.org at this time.)

Participating Ensemble Models:
NCEP (US National Center for Env Prediction) GFS Ensemble
CMC (Canadaian Meteo Centre) Ensemble
FNMOC (Fleet Numerical Meteo & Ocean Center) Ensemble
ECMWF (European Centre) Ensemble

You can find them here btw: http://www.hfip.org/data/?Path=prob

Other products: http://www.hfip.org/products/

Direct link to referenced image: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/genprob.aeperts.2016072700.altg.000_120.png

[NDG]

Hard to believe the GFS which keeps dissipating the tropical wave as it tracks westward towards the Caribbean showing it encountering 40-50 knot SW windshear just east of the Lesser Antilles when windshear has been running below average across the MDR and Caribbean.

[srainhoutx]

I would monitor the Western Caribbean in the longer range for any potential TC Genesis. The GEFS Ensembles are beginning to suggest some clustering of the individual members and the area may be rather conducive for potential tropical development in about 10 days or so.

[TheStormExpert]

Extremely long range 12z GFS with another strong TS forming instantly once in exits Africa.

[cycloneye]

Interesting news from NOAA.

 https://twitter.com/NOAAComms/status/758384414317510657