Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave near 27W (Invest 97L is up)

[NDG]

Hard to not see this developing as it approaches the Leeward Islands with such a good UL anticyclone just about on top of it. The only thing I could see is dry air intrusion and that it will be moving fairly fast before it could interact and torn apart if it tracks through Hispaniola and Cuba.

[TheStormExpert]

Not impressed...Ive yet to see the ECM show significant development from any of these waves. GFS brings pouch 06L which HH is set to investigate through plenty of land interaction. willing to bet that HH mission will more then likely be cancelled. I guess I can take some wannabe waves in late july.

Too much land interaction is the main culprit with this one, but it could go north or south of the Greater Antilles so it...

[Siker]

If models continue to trend a little further south as they have been recently (now over Hispaniola vs. slightly north of it previously), this will be more important to watch. The fine line between colliding with Hispaniola and slightly missing it will have huge implications on model output at this point.

[NDG]

Interesting that the CMC has been trending towards stronger development as it reaches the Leeward Islands.

[gatorcane]

BIG change with GFS ensembles, with a much stronger development signal in the Caribbean:

[JaxGator]

Not impressed...Ive yet to see the ECM show significant development from any of these waves. GFS brings pouch 06L which HH is set to investigate through plenty of land interaction. willing to bet that HH mission will more then likely be cancelled. I guess I can take some wannabe waves in late july.

Doesn't the Euro and other models in general perform better with systems that have a closed center?

[gatorcane]

Yep and NHC pulls the trigger as I would expect them to given model trends, should be invest 97l later. Wow moving 30mph!

20/30:

1. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Siker]

Counting ~12/20 GEFS members with a storm in that Western Gulf area.

[TheStormExpert]

You know it is going to be hauling butt when you see a cone for the 5-day outlook that extended.

[gatorcane]

Saved loop of the "big picture", noticeable broad rotation and some convection building - dry air and fast forward speed will be the issue for the next several days, what happens after that is the big

[Bocadude85]

If the system does not have a well established LLC it could easily consolidate north or south of Hispaniola. Hispaniola does not have the same effect on tropical waves/weak low pressure areas as it does on fully developed hurricanes.

[JaxGator]

AL, 97, 2016072818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 345W, 20, 1011, DB, NHC 97L INVEST 20160728 1800 130N 0345W

We have 97L.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97L is up