ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2016072718, , BEST, 0, 126N, 289W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 97, 2016072800, , BEST, 0, 127N, 301W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 97, 2016072806, , BEST, 0, 128N, 315W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 97, 2016072812, , BEST, 0, 129N, 330W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS010, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 010,
AL, 97, 2016072818, , BEST, 0, 130N, 345W, 20, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 70, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this system.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118084

[cycloneye]

Models only.

[gatorcane]

1. A tropical wave located about 1700 miles east-southeast of the
Leeward Islands is moving westward at about 30 mph. Environmental
conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for development
this weekend when the disturbance could be near the northern Lesser
Antilles and Puerto Rico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[Blown Away]

This is a teaser and is designed to mess with our minds...


97L Over Eastern Islands In 72 hours...

[Blown Away]

12z...

[NDG]

12z Euro is coming in a little more organized on the system as it approaches the Leeward Islands. It is also slowing down on the timing.

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro coming in stronger with a 1008mb closed low @ 72hrs.

[tolakram]

Hi Rez 12Z euro on Weatherbell has closed isobars just NE of Guadeloupe at 66 hours.

From TT:

[TheStormExpert]

Torn apart by Hispaniola @ 96hrs.

[tolakram]

We've gone from nothing to something quickly, will need to watch in my opinion since rarely is track accurate this far out. Via Weatherbell maps it may cross PR as a tropical Storm before running into Hispaniola.

[TheStormExpert]

We've gone from nothing to something quickly, will need to watch in my opinion since rarely is track accurate this far out. Via Weatherbell maps it may cross PR as a tropical Storm before running into Hispaniola.

All it would take is 100 miles north or south of Hispaniola and it stays completely over water.

[cycloneye]

Before Hispanola it moves thru the NE Caribbean Islands and PR.Have to watch closely here.

[NDG]

BTW, the Euro paints a very strong ridge to the north of 97L, this will not be recurve if it survives Hispaniola.
Where's Ninel's permanent trough?

[TheStormExpert]

This steering pattern seems eerily similar to last season with a stronger Bermuda High just minus the Caribbean Shear.

[TheStormExpert]

1012mb low hugging the north coast of Cuba @ 120hrs.

[USTropics]

SREF (Short Range Ensemble Forecast) -



http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/tcgif/track.srperts.2016072809.tc_atl_ll.single.png

[gatorcane]

Even the conservative JMA is a bit more bullish:

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/758704896749268992




 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/758735946179194881

[StormChaser75]

The sometimes unreliable cmc model showing a hurricane dolly type storm hit.

[TheStormExpert]

Hmmm... Interesting.

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/758732409982427136