ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

Here is a zoomed in forecast of the Euro from wunderground site.
It shows 97L striking P.R. as a small tropical storm Sunday evening.

[TheStormExpert]

Is that in mph or kt's?

[PTrackerLA]

Looking at the hi-res weatherbell Euro plots, you can track vorticity and the PWAT surge all the way into the gulf and into the northern Gulf coast.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/758735946179194881

[NDG]

:uarrow: Is that in mph or kt's?

Knots! So it could be a medium strength tropical storm if the euro is correct.

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Is that in mph or kt's?

Knots! So it could be a medium strength tropical storm if the euro is correct.

Thanks!

[RL3AO]

Land interaction is going to be big. 200 miles may be the difference between pulling an Erika and staying in a fairly decent environment.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

This steering pattern seems eerily similar to last season with a stronger Bermuda High just minus the Caribbean Shear.

The similar steering pattern might be influenced by the fact that this is the transition year from el nino to la nina just without the strong shear from the el nino trade winds. The extremely active epac season so far seems to make it seem like the west coast is still under el nino conditions especially in my area in southern california where the water temp is usually cold and it still feels like tepid tap water

[wxman57]

Note that to reach Puerto Rico by Sunday (per GFS/Euro), the disturbance would have to travel at over 30 mph. Either it will arrive later or it will have a very hard time organizing.

[northjaxpro]

Will have to wait and see the chances of development, which go up in my opinion past 5 days if the system does not have major entanglement with Hispaniola.

[USTropics]

12z Ensemble Prob % of Tropical genesis rises just east of the Leewards:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/758739146701623299

[gatorcane]

some T-storms building around center as Eric Blake points out, saved loop:

[northjaxpro]

I just think 97L in time will really have to slow down some really have a better chance to try to develop. Apparently ridging may get too strong which may steer 97L more southwest in time.

[NDG]

Note that to reach Puerto Rico by Tuesday morning (per GFS/Euro), the disturbance would have to travel at over 30 mph. Either it will arrive later or it will have a very hard time organizing.

Actually the Euro has 97L arriving P.R. by Sunday evening not Tuesday morning.

[1900hurricane]

Shear is low, but that's because deep-layer flow is 20-30 kt!

[Siker]

~8/51 EPS members have a GEFS/CMC-esque solution.

[gatorcane]

18Z Guidance:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/758762828891324416

[wxman57]

Note that to reach Puerto Rico by Tuesday morning (per GFS/Euro), the disturbance would have to travel at over 30 mph. Either it will arrive later or it will have a very hard time organizing.

Actually the Euro has 97L arriving P.R. by Sunday evening not Tuesday morning.

Yeah, I meant Sunday. Looking at where the models (EC/GFS) initialized it, they have it way too far west to start out. They have the center at 35W in a few hours, when it's near 30W now. That won't happen. The models are probably moving it too fast. If it moves slower, the steering flow downstream may be different, perhaps allowing it to turn northward farther east.