Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

[TheStormExpert]

You might be right NDG, but wind shear has already increased basin wide from several days ago.

[Steve]

I think 96L could be a threat down the road, in the medium range it may indeed weaken to an open TW due to SAL if it gains too much latitude but I do not believe how the GFS paints a very hostile environment of windshear near the Leeward Islands which they forecast for this system to get torn apart by strong UL winds.

Agreed. If we are to see a Western biased season with close-in development, few of the systems coming off Africa will appear to be much of anything until probably west of 65 (or even closer in than that). I also doubt the models will regularly be picking up on development in their earlier runs. Sticking with the premise, we're also liable to have stuff not developing until almost 80W giving short notice for intensifying systems. In other words, no one near or along the US Coast should stay away from their computers or the weather for any long periods of time. When activity pulses, it could be scattershot and come without a whole lot of advanced warning. That's the way I see the middle of the season (August/September) playing out. Just my opinion, but it's probably going to end up being valid.

[NDG]

You might be right NDG, but wind shear has already increased basin wide from several days ago.

http://i63.tinypic.com/aumwl.jpg

http://i65.tinypic.com/3520ymf.jpg

But the shear axis/TUTT have not been permanent over the eastern Caribbean like past seasons, they have been retrograding westward.
One good example is the great UL environment the models are forecasting for Pouch 06L as it approaches the Leeward islands in a couple of days.

Edit: Didn't know that Pouch 06L is now 97L

[Hammy]

One thing I've noticed over the last day or so is that the winds to the north of the convection is now out of the east, rather than the west, so we're actually getting surface lows forming rather than westerly trade winds converging from the SW and NW.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/758704896749268992




 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/758735946179194881

[gatorcane]

Signs of organization looking at SAT imagery. Defined circulation with new thunderstorms building:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[USTropics]

Saved animated loop of today's visible imagery, gradual improvement for sure:

[1900hurricane]

Vorticity certainly looks pretty nice at the moment. I'm curious to see what the upcoming RSCAT pass will show assuming it hits it.

[alienstorm]

Interesting to note that if you look to the WSW of this system there is a nice circulation but that's not 97L

[Nimbus]

Signs of organization looking at SAT imagery. Defined circulation with new thunderstorms building:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Not moving very fast so it may have time to reach TD status before the SAL/shear gets a chance to work into the system.

[Kazmit]

What could happen is 97L could clear out the unfavorable conditions for 96L- So 96L could have a chance of developing down the road, that is, if the SAL next SAL outbreak doesn't interfere too much...

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I think 96L could be a threat down the road, in the medium range it may indeed weaken to an open TW due to SAL if it gains too much latitude but I do not believe how the GFS paints a very hostile environment of windshear near the Leeward Islands which they forecast for this system to get torn apart by strong UL winds.

Agreed. If we are to see a Western biased season with close-in development, few of the systems coming off Africa will appear to be much of anything until probably west of 65 (or even closer in than that). I also doubt the models will regularly be picking up on development in their earlier runs. Sticking with the premise, we're also liable to have stuff not developing until almost 80W giving short notice for intensifying systems. In other words, no one near or along the US Coast should stay away from their computers or the weather for any long periods of time. When activity pulses, it could be scattershot and come without a whole lot of advanced warning. That's the way I see the middle of the season (August/September) playing out. Just my opinion, but it's probably going to end up being valid.

Will definitely agree with this. I had an odd feeling about how this season would turn out and so far already my feeling is panning out, even if these invests dont amount to anything its safe to say this could definitely be the teaser of what is to come in the next 3 weeks. oh and GEAUX SAINTS!!

[cycloneye]

The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a
low pressure system centered about 350 miles south-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization during the
day. This system has some potential for slight development during
the next day or two, before the disturbance encounters a less
favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Kazmit]

8pm update... not much has changed.

1. A tropical wave located over the Atlantic halfway between the west
coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles is moving rapidly westward.
Given the fast motion of the system, development, if any, will be
slow to occur. However, this system will likely bring showers and
gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands during the weekend,
and then, the activity should spread westward across the Caribbean
Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave and a
low pressure system centered about 350 miles south-southeast of
the Cabo Verde Islands has changed little in organization during the
day. This system has some potential for slight development during
the next day or two, before the disturbance encounters a less
favorable environment over the central tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Forecaster Avila

[RL3AO]

Lixion must be thrilled to be writing about the Atlantic again.

[hurricanes1234]

I'm surprised! For a far eastern Atlantic wave from this year or the past couple years those are some rather cold tops.

[gatorcane]

Convection does continue to build:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[floridasun78]

have say hurr season starting wake up Atlantic side as pac ocean will likely hit slow time i see having invest almost every week as go aug if La Niña kick in

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 282341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
741 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016


A tropical wave is in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis
that extends from 17N20W to a 1010 mb low near 11N21W. These
features are moving west at about 10 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides with a 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is embedded within broad area of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Scattered moderate
convection is from 7N-14N between 20W-24W.

[hurricanes1234]

Convection does continue to build:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Wow! The hot towers don't seem to be falling on that loop at all...

I wonder what's behind the unusually deep convection here?