EPAC: HOWARD - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

EP, 91, 2016072618, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1037W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS015, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
EP, 91, 2016072700, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1048W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS015, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
EP, 91, 2016072706, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1061W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS015, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
EP, 91, 2016072712, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1075W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS015, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015,
EP, 91, 2016072718, , BEST, 0, 108N, 1088W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 0, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST

[Kingarabian]

Intensity models are bullish:

[hurricanes1234]

Wow

Can this system become named before next week and break the record of storms in July?

Moreover, if this becomes a major (which I personally don't think it would, but considering Georgette and how that one defied the initial runs which only showed it peaking as a minimal hurricane), we will have reached or come very close to the seasonal average for major hurricanes by early August.

That's quite something imo

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure centered about 650 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, have increased since yesterday, and the low's circulation
has become better defined. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form over the weekend while the low moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[dexterlabio]

I just really want this to be named before the month ends, regardless if it will be another cane or not. Just for the record's sake.

If this becomes a hurricane though, do you think it will help bring EPAC's ACE above 100?

[Kingarabian]

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form over the weekend while the low moves west-northwestward
at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

Forecaster Pasch

[hurricanes1234]

So far this month with all the EPAC invests the TWOs are similar: environmental conditions are forecast to be / remain (increasingly) conducive for development and a tropical depression could / is likely to form by [time frame].

My confidence in this one is increasing and personally I won't be surprised to see a hurricane from it when all is said and done. The only question is if it could become named before August 1.

[Kingarabian]

Intensity models more bullish:

[hurricanes1234]

I just really want this to be named before the month ends, regardless if it will be another cane or not. Just for the record's sake.

If this becomes a hurricane though, do you think it will help bring EPAC's ACE above 100?

Yes, most likely. The ACE is already at 90 and even a Category 1 from this should bring it up to 100. But with the intensity models showing a potentially stronger system, personally I'm thinking it might be somewhere around 105-110.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[hurricanes1234]

50% / 80% in the 5 PM TWO, up from 40% / 80% in the 11 AM TWO:

1. A broad and elongated area of low pressure located about 700 miles
south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Upper-level
winds are forecast to become more conducive for development during
the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to form
over the weekend or early next week while the low moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Forecaster Berg

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

wish one of these storms would curve northeast and go toward california. had remnants of dolores and a couple others last year it was nice and my first time personally experiencing any tropical storm based rain. considering how parched from drought socal is right now we could use it. better if a fluke TS made it up this far

[CaliforniaResident]

wish one of these storms would curve northeast and go toward california. had remnants of dolores and a couple others last year it was nice and my first time personally experiencing any tropical storm based rain. considering how parched from drought socal is right now we could use it. better if a fluke TS made it up this far

There is a far better chance of that happening during El Nino years due to a more northward surge of moisture. This summer, those EPAC storms have been taking a westward turn into the ocean and I don't expect any impact for us in California. There still is an outside chance in August or September of an impact though if our SST remain above average (enjoying those mid 70s water temps at the beaches while normal for us would be upper 60s), especially if we can put the breaks on La Nina kicking until later in the fall.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

wish one of these storms would curve northeast and go toward california. had remnants of dolores and a couple others last year it was nice and my first time personally experiencing any tropical storm based rain. considering how parched from drought socal is right now we could use it. better if a fluke TS made it up this far

There is a far better chance of that happening during El Nino years due to a more northward surge of moisture. This summer, those EPAC storms have been taking a westward turn into the ocean and I don't expect any impact for us in California. There still is an outside chance in August or September of an impact though if our SST remain above average (enjoying those mid 70s water temps at the beaches while normal for us would be upper 60s), especially if we can put the breaks on La Nina kicking until later in the fall.

yeah last july i got some rain storm remnants and it was nice. i was just at the beach over the weekend and the temps of the ocean were shocking to me i expected them to be cooler than a year ago when in fact they actually felt a tad warmer. essentially like tepid water from your garden hose.

[CaliforniaResident]

wish one of these storms would curve northeast and go toward california. had remnants of dolores and a couple others last year it was nice and my first time personally experiencing any tropical storm based rain. considering how parched from drought socal is right now we could use it. better if a fluke TS made it up this far

There is a far better chance of that happening during El Nino years due to a more northward surge of moisture. This summer, those EPAC storms have been taking a westward turn into the ocean and I don't expect any impact for us in California. There still is an outside chance in August or September of an impact though if our SST remain above average (enjoying those mid 70s water temps at the beaches while normal for us would be upper 60s), especially if we can put the breaks on La Nina kicking until later in the fall.

yeah last july i got some rain storm remnants and it was nice. i was just at the beach over the weekend and the temps of the ocean were shocking to me i expected them to be cooler than a year ago when in fact they actually felt a tad warmer. essentially like tepid water from your garden hose.

We were supposed to be deep into La Nina by this time which usually brings colder than normal waters and lots of marine layer to us but the atmosphere doesn't want to cooperate. This season is surprising me with how the EPAC has a hangover from last summer.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

There is a far better chance of that happening during El Nino years due to a more northward surge of moisture. This summer, those EPAC storms have been taking a westward turn into the ocean and I don't expect any impact for us in California. There still is an outside chance in August or September of an impact though if our SST remain above average (enjoying those mid 70s water temps at the beaches while normal for us would be upper 60s), especially if we can put the breaks on La Nina kicking until later in the fall.

yeah last july i got some rain storm remnants and it was nice. i was just at the beach over the weekend and the temps of the ocean were shocking to me i expected them to be cooler than a year ago when in fact they actually felt a tad warmer. essentially like tepid water from your garden hose.

We were supposed to be deep into La Nina by this time which usually brings colder than normal waters and lots of marine layer to us but the atmosphere doesn't want to cooperate. This season is surprising me with how the EPAC has a hangover from last summer.

yeah thats what i thought too which is why i was so confused by water temp, well hopefully this allows SoCal to have its turn in getting the rain since norcal had its fun over the winter. the lake near where im at is only 12% full and more than likely will dry up by end of september.

[hurricanes1234]

Thunderstorms have actually diminished with 91E....

[Yellow Evan]

Disregard this as the track moves it too north compared to the ECMWF/GFS.

Code: Select all

          * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  INVEST      EP912016  07/29/16  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    25    27    30    33    36    41    45    46    46    43    39    31    24
V (KT) LAND       25    27    30    33    36    41    45    46    46    43    39    31    24
V (KT) LGEM       25    27    28    30    31    34    36    37    36    33    29    24    19
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        15    11     7     8     7     3     3     4    11    12    18    21    23
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -6    -5    -3    -3    -4    -3    -2    -2    -2     0     1     2     0
SHEAR DIR         49    41    28    13    11   348   321   205   226   204   204   202   208
SST (C)         28.0  27.8  27.5  27.3  27.1  26.7  26.2  25.6  25.1  24.0  22.5  22.4  22.8
POT. INT. (KT)   143   142   139   137   135   131   127   121   116   105    89    87    91
200 MB T (C)   -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C)  -0.4  -0.4  -0.2  -0.1   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.2   0.1
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     8     7     6     5     4     2     1     1     0
700-500 MB RH     70    70    69    68    70    68    65    59    54    48    46    42    38
MODEL VTX (KT)     5     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     6     5     4     2
850 MB ENV VOR     7     3    -4    -7    -8    -6     5     3     2     0     0    -1    -8
200 MB DIV        34     5     2     2     9     9    30    11    17    -3     3    -9    10
700-850 TADV      -2    -1     0     0    -1    -1     0     0     2     4     2     6     4
LAND (KM)       1040  1040  1062  1034  1017  1044  1098  1205  1327  1487  1681  1752  1847
LAT (DEG N)     12.6  13.2  13.8  14.4  15.0  16.2  17.3  18.5  19.7  21.2  22.6  24.1  25.3
LONG(DEG W)    111.7 112.3 113.1 114.0 114.9 117.0 119.2 121.8 124.6 127.8 130.8 133.8 136.2
STM SPEED (KT)     8     9    10    11    11    12    13    14    16    17    15    14    12
HEAT CONTENT      15    17    25    25    15    11    10     7     4     0     0     0     0

  FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/  7      CX,CY:  -4/  5
  T-12 MAX WIND:  20            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  678  (MEAN=586)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:  10.7 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:   7.0 (MEAN=65.0)
  PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR):            3.5

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   3.   7.  13.  18.  22.  24.  25.  25.  23.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   7.   6.   5.   3.   1.  -2.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  PERSISTENCE            1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -1.  -1.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -5.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   2.   1.   2.   0.  -1.  -2.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -2.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES PREDICTORS       -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -7.  -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           2.   5.   8.  11.  16.  20.  21.  21.  18.  14.   6.  -1.

                CURRENT MAX WIND (KT):   25. LAT, LON:   12.6   111.7

      ** 2015 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912016 INVEST     07/29/16  12 UTC **
 (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
 
     Predictor             Value   RI Predictor Range  Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):     5.0     -22.0  to   38.5       0.45           3.2
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :   114.4      40.3  to  144.5       0.71           3.6
 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) :    19.4       0.0  to   75.9       0.26           1.6
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :    10.7      38.9  to    2.1       0.77           4.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :     9.8      18.9  to    1.4       0.52           2.8
 MAXIMUM WIND (kt)     :    25.0      22.5  to  132.0       0.07           0.3
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :    10.4     -11.0  to  135.3       0.15           0.4
 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2):    89.2     638.0  to  -68.2       0.78           0.0
 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP  :     0.2       2.1  to   -1.7       0.51          -0.5
 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm:     0.0      81.4  to    0.0       1.00           0.7
 
 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 6.3%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  25% is   1.9 times sample mean (12.9%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold=  17% is   1.9 times sample mean ( 8.6%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.8%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 4.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 7.1%)
 SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold=   0% is   0.0 times sample mean ( 5.9%)
 
 Matrix of RI probabilities
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
  RI (kt / h)  | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------
   SHIPS-RII:     0.0%   25.0%   16.5%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%    0.0%
    Logistic:     3.4%   15.0%    7.8%    1.4%    0.7%    8.8%    0.1%
    Bayesian:     0.0%   23.5%   11.5%    3.8%    1.4%    0.0%    0.0%
   Consensus:     1.1%   21.2%   11.9%    1.7%    0.7%    2.9%    0.1%

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP912016 INVEST     07/29/16  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[NDG]

The way this invest looks this morning I doubt the record will be broken before Monday of this becoming the 8th named TS during July.

[hurricanes1234]

Still lacking deep, organised convection.

I'm starting to wonder if we'll see a decrease in the % by the next TWO...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Yellow Evan]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad and elongated area
of low pressure located about 800 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula have changed little
in organization since yesterday. However, upper-level winds are
expected to become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week
while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent