WPAC: NIDA - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

I wish I knew what JMA finds so interesting about the Kamchatka Peninsula that makes them keep their Himawari-8 rapid scan floater window there so often. Personally, I'm much more interested in 96W.

maybe they're watchin out for volcanic smoke (or maybe dust?) that may emanate from that area. hehe

[NotoSans]

18Z GFS shifted further westward showing landfall over western Guangdong. Meanwhile 00Z Euro has trended eastward and brings the typhoon to Taiwan. Models are flip-flopping right now. LOL

[Alyono]

18Z GFS shifted further westward showing landfall over western Guangdong. Meanwhile 00Z Euro has trended eastward and brings the typhoon to Taiwan. Models are flip-flopping right now. LOL

EC brings a disorganized TD into Taiwan

[NotoSans]

JMA now expects 96W to become a TS within 24 hours.

TD
Issued at 07:30 UTC, 29 July 2016

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 29 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°20' (12.3°)
E128°05' (128.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NW Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 29 July>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N13°20' (13.3°)
E127°00' (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (7 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°35' (14.6°)
E125°35' (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA is the regional VAAC so they're watching for volcanic ash - activity in Kurils has been on the uptick last few days.

ECM 00z run is weird - possible it's bugged or "contaminated?" Maybe someone with more knowledge of the intricacies of the models can shed more light.

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.5N 127.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 127.2E, APPROXIMATELY
400 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290123Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS AN
ELONGATED LLCC WITH WEAK CORE WINDS (10-15 KNOTS); HOWEVER, STRONGER
GRADIENT WINDS ARE LOCATED FAR TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IMPROVING
RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 31
CELSIUS ARE ALSO VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH THE LLCC
IS STILL BROAD AT THIS TIME, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD AROUND
THE LLCC INDICATING IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES CONTINUED CONSOLIDATION WITH THE DISTURBANCE REACHING
WARNING CRITERIA IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS LUZON. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 291216

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 96W (E OF PHILIPPINES)

B. 29/1200Z

C. 11.62N

D. 126.93E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.5/1.5 STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .20 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET AND PT ARE UNAVAILABLE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/0748Z 12.00N 127.13E SSMS


LEMBKE

[talkon]

We have 06W.

06W SIX 160729 0600 11.7N 127.6E WPAC 20 1004

[euro6208]

Up to 25 knots.

06W SIX 160729 1200 12.0N 127.2E WPAC 25 1004

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 394 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS INCREASED CONSOLIDATION WITH DEVELOPING
CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
291016Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP FORMATIVE BANDING
ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO THE BROAD LLCC. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BENEATH THE BUILDING
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 291321Z ASCAT BULLSEYE
SHOWING A SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LLCC. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 25 KNOTS BASED ON THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND IS
SUPPORTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES AS WELL AS THE 291321Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 25 KNOT WINDS
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE IS
SUPPORTED BY A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 30
CELSIUS. TD 06W IS DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
A WEAK LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND THE LLCC. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. NEAR TAU 48, THE CYCLONE WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN IN LUZON.
CONCURRENTLY, TD 06W WILL TURN TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY,
CROSSING THE NORTHERN COAST OF LUZON, AS THE STR BUILDS IN NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. DURING THIS PERIOD, TD 06W WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO
LAND INTERACTION BEFORE REEMERGING OVER WARM WATER IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO REGAIN ITS PREVIOUS
INTENSITY.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS HONG KONG. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO 75
KNOTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL NEAR TAU 96. EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO
RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AS IT MOVES FURTHER INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

NAVGEM close hit for Luzon and smashes near Hong Kong.




CMC




GFS more inland over Luzon and bit more east closer to Hong Kong...

[1900hurricane]

Good upgrade call by JTWC. The ASCAT pass they mentioned shows a clear tropical depression.

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 291507
TCSWNP

A. 06W (NONAME)

B. 29/1430Z

C. 11.8N

D. 127.0E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H. REMARKS...RECENT 20/1229Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED A GOOD LOOK AT
06W LOCATION. CONVECTION WRAPS .3 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.5.
MET = 1.0 AND PT = 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1229Z 12.1N 127.1E AMSU


...KIBLER

[euro6208]

Raw already up to 4.5!

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 JUL 2016 Time : 142000 UTC
Lat : 12:14:13 N Lon : 127:07:38 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1007.2mb/ 26.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.6 1.7 4.5

Center Temp : +14.8C Cloud Region Temp : -45.8C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.2T/hour
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.6 degrees

****************************************************

[dexterlabio]

First attempt to build a CDO... I think we're on some business...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/759089420746235908

[1900hurricane]

Structure is solid.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 292100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING NEAR AND TO THE
WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 291644Z AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION TIGHTLY WRAPPING AROUND
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS DETERMINED WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH RECENT DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW REMAIN
AT T1.5, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS BASED ON
INCREASING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION CO-LOCATED WITH THE LLCC.
THE EARLIER 291318Z ASCAT PASS WITH 25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE LLCC WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING AND PERSISTING FOR
SEVERAL HOURS ALSO SUPPORTS THIS ASSESSMENT. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND IS SUPPORTED BY GOOD RADIAL
OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS WEST OF THE LLCC
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF 15 TO 20
KNOTS. THE SHEAR IS INDUCED BY A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST, WHICH IS ALSO STEERING 06W TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 06W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY
INTENSIFY AS ITS CONVECTION GRADUALLY ORGANIZES OVER WARM SSTS AND
UNDER A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 36, TD
06W IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH LUZON AS A TYPHOON, WITH A PAUSE IN ITS
INTENSIFICATION UNTIL TAU 48 WHEN IT EMERGES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA
SEA. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE THAT PERSISTS TO THE NORTH OVER THE EAST CHINA
SEA.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD HONG KONG. FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, AND
PEAK INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE REACHED AROUND TAU 72 PRIOR TO
SECOND LANDFALL OVER CHINA, FOLLOWED BY RAPID WEAKENING AS IT MOVES
INLAND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN UNUSUALLY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
THEREBY SUPPORTING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

Convection is collapsing for the time being, but that's giving us a real good look at where the center is. Unless it's a cast-away vort (I don't see any evidence that it is), it looks about at 13.8*N, 127.7*E or thereabouts, which is considerably east of JTWC's short-term track. An animation of the high-res rapid scan floater window seems to show the center moving NNE interestingly enough.

[dexterlabio]

Just when I thought it was already building a solid core last night. Although that's good news for Luzon because the threat is confined to heavy rain.