Tropical Wave (Ex-Invest 96L) Near Hispanola

[wxman57]

Looks much more impressive than 97L now. Quite a ball of convection. No ASCAT pass today, but I'd say it may already be a TD.

[drezee]

Looks much more impressive than 97L now. Quite a ball of convection. No ASCAT pass today, but I'd say it may already be a TD.

I agree 57. Feedback going on by the looks of it. 97L has helped the PW in the area and in front. It has a chance to make a run at getting a name at this pace.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks much more impressive than 97L now. Quite a ball of convection. No ASCAT pass today, but I'd say it may already be a TD.

A good analog for this invest may be Dorian in 2013

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[Kazmit]

Looks much more impressive than 97L now. Quite a ball of convection. No ASCAT pass today, but I'd say it may already be a TD.

A good analog for this invest may be Dorian in 2013

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

I second this. Very similar location to Dorian's path, and at the same time period too- the end of July.

[Ptarmigan]

The tropics are heating up again as August comes.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

TS DORIAN, yup literally almost to a T just wondering if the conditions might be more conducive later to a Cat 1 develop given 97L doesnt survive and creates a better environment for growth rather than staying at TS

[Hammy]

Latest IR indicates only mid-level spin and still probably open to the north (which is odd with a westward system, but with the monsoon trough as far north as it is it's to be expected) and the main convection seems to be on the line of convergence well SW of the mid-level spin.

[Nimbus]

Looked almost closed yesterday so could be a TD now.
There is good inflow with rotation visible.
The high cirrus is drying out a little rather than expanding and reinforcing the inflow.
Probably stay a small system if the dry trend continues.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looked almost closed yesterday so could be a TD now.
There is good inflow with rotation visible.
The high cirrus is drying out a little rather than expanding and reinforcing the inflow.
Probably stay a small system if the dry trend continues.

It is about to fail the poof test I have heard people mentioning on here. You can see dry air is getting into the system now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE/movies/splitE5.html

SAL is still a big factor heading into August.

[Gustywind]

Pressure down to 1009 mb compared to the previous TWD.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
632 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016


A tropical wave is in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis
that extends from 18N22.5W to a 1009 mb low near 11N22.5W. These
features are moving west at about 10 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides well with a low to mid level trough extending
northward through the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm of the center.
Despite increased convection, the earlier microwave imagery showed
the low level structure is still fairly weak at this time.

[Nimbus]

We don't have access to the new 10 meter resolution geostationary loops with 5 minute revisit but it does look closed.
Even if the CDO gets blown south fxposing a LLC, I would be real surprised if we didn't see another burst of convection..

[Gustywind]

First appareance on SSD... with increasing numbers.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
29/0545 UTC 12.0N 21.7W T 1.5/1.5 96L
29/0000 UTC 11.4N 20.7W T1.0/1.0 96L
28/1800 UTC 11.0N 20.6W T1.0/1.0 96L
28/1200 UTC 10.4N 19.9W T1.0/1.0 96L

[Gustywind]

National Hurricane Center Watching Two Areas in the Atlantic For Development

Tom Moore
Published: July 29, 2016

https://www.wunderground.com/news/tropi ... son-invest

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to watch a pair of disturbances over the Atlantic Ocean that have some potential to develop into a tropical depression over the next few days.

Both areas of interest are tropical waves – a batch of energy and general spin in the atmosphere that develops due to temperature contrasts on either side of Africa's Sahel region – that are moving west across the central and eastern Atlantic Ocean.

The first tropical wave - designated Invest 96-L - was located just west of Africa, or several hundred miles south-southeast of Cabo Verde. This naming convention is used by the NHC to identify features that are being monitored for potential future development into a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

As of Friday morning, the NHC indicated that Invest 96-L had a medium (40 percent) chance of developing into a tropical depression during the next five days. The disturbance exhibited a nice pulse of convection overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, but was headed into a fresh surge of dry air moving into the eastern Atlantic Ocean.

A second tropical wave - designated Invest 97-L - was located more than 1,200 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

This separate tropical wave has been given a low (30 percent) chance to develop during the next five days. The NHC said that this system's fast movement was a negative to development. The aforementioned dry air in the region also may be playing a role in keeping convection rather disorganized.

Regardless of development, showers and some gusty winds should spread into the Leeward Islands this weekend, as occurs with most all tropical waves moving through.

These are the first tropical waves in the Atlantic Ocean to have a chance to develop this season, which is why they have our attention. However, they both have a long way to go, and there's plenty of time to monitor the disturbances as they track west, so there's no need to have any major concerns at the moment.

Technically, the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. Much of the tropical activity occurs between the second week of August and the second week of October. In late July and early August, we begin to keep an eye on the eastern Atlantic as it begins to show signs of life.

[drezee]

Looked almost closed yesterday so could be a TD now.
There is good inflow with rotation visible.
The high cirrus is drying out a little rather than expanding and reinforcing the inflow.
Probably stay a small system if the dry trend continues.

visible is showing low level banding...if it was in the GOM...we would likely have a TC classified

[RL3AO]

ASCAT will be in the area soon. Hopefully it catches it this time. Looks really impressive though.

[cycloneye]

Up to 40%-50%

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Some
additional development is possible during the next day or two before
the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the
central tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

[TheStormExpert]

Conditions still expected to become unfavorable in a few days? But a CCKW will passing be passing through the Atlantic July 30th-August 4th.

By the way, has anyone else noticed the new improved shear graphic?

[RL3AO]

Still looks like the next push of SAL will go west of 96L, but that means it will move into drier and more stable air in a few days. The conditions right now are probably the best it will see for a while.

[Gustywind]

First mention as a special feature.
Tropical Weather Discussion...AMENDED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
754 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is in the far east Tropical Atlantic with axis
that extends from 18N22.5W to a 1009 mb low near 11N22.5W. These
features are moving west at about 10 kt over the past 24 hours.
The wave coincides well with a low to mid level trough extending
northward through the Cabo Verde Islands. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is evident within 90 nm of the center.
Despite increased convection, the earlier microwave imagery
showed the low level structure is still fairly weak at this time.

[Kazmit]

Up to 40%/50% now. Looks more impressive on satellite imagery than 97L, and is better organized than when I last saw it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.gif