WPAC: NIDA - Post-Tropical

[dexterlabio]

So JMA is expecting a 55-kt severe TS by Sunday night...complements the 65-kt forecast of JTWC when the storm hits/passes north of Luzon..

[1900hurricane]

I wonder if a little dry air got in. It certainly doesn't look significant on microwave, but maybe enough for a storm in its infancy? I imagine i'll work out pretty quickly.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/759217332371787778

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 364 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION THAT HAS ACCELERATED TO THE NORTH
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION DUE TO THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES REPORTING CURRENT INTENSITIES BETWEEN T1.5 AND T2.0 (25
TO 30 KNOTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE VERY WARM NEAR 31
CELSIUS, AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED IN THE LAST SIX HOURS
(APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 KNOTS). DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT IS ALSO
PRESENT SUPPORTING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST IS CURRENTLY STEERING TD 06W TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD05W IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IN THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS AS THE STEERING RIDGE ADVANCES INTO A REGION NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM. SSTS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE. A PERIOD OF STEADY
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TAU 36, ALLOWING TD 06W TO
APPROACH TYPHOON STRENGTH. LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON IS EXPECTED
SOMETIME BETWEEN TAU 36 AND 48 LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS
ORGANIZATION RELATIVELY WELL AS IT ENTERS THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FROM
TAU 48 TO 72.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE,
SUPPORTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STEADY INTENSIFICATION. TD 06W IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR HONG KONG AROUND TAU 72. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND THE FORECAST TRACK IS
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[dexterlabio]

This looks to be a bonafide tropical storm now... although that's coming from an amateur weather watcher.

[NotoSans]

JMA upgrades to TS Nida

TS 1604 (Nida)
Issued at 10:15 UTC, 30 July 2016

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 30 July>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°10' (16.2°)
E125°35' (125.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
30 kt wind area ALL 190 km (100 NM)

<Forecast for 21 UTC, 30 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E124°00' (124.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 60 km (30 NM)

<Forecast for 09 UTC, 31 July>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N18°05' (18.1°)
E122°25' (122.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 985 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

[mrbagyo]

Convection is on the increase once again.

[talkon]

Seems to be rapidly strengthening - looks pretty much like a typhoon now. Winds should still be lagging behind though.

[euro6208]

06W NIDA 160730 1200 16.9N 125.3E WPAC 40 993

Up to 40 knots!

[euro6208]

TXPQ23 KNES 300909
TCSWNP

A. 06W (NONAME)

B. 30/0830Z

C. 16.3N

D. 125.6E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.0/3.0/D2.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...0736Z SSMIS DATA SHOWED WELL DEFINED BANDING OF 7/10 WHICH
RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.O. 0830Z VISIBLE IMAGE INDICATED A WELL DEFINED CDO
OF 1.68DEG WHICH YIELDS A DT=3.5. THE FORMER IS USED AS THE CURRENT DT
SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO THE MET OF 2.5 WHICH IS BASED ON RAPID DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. PT IS 3.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...FISHER

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 30 JUL 2016 Time : 111000 UTC
Lat : 16:11:16 N Lon : 125:45:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.3 / 992.4mb/ 51.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.3 3.4 3.6

Center Temp : -75.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.8 degrees

****************************************************

[euro6208]

Looks like JTWC's rapid intensification forecast before Luzon is panning out as mentioned in the 1st warning...

THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE
AROUND THE LLCC. AFTERWARDS, EXPECT A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT.

[euro6208]

Even the conservative JMA takes Typhoon Nida north of Luzon and landfall further east of Hong Kong...



Even NAVGEM but hits Hong Kong directly...



Even CMC slightly in the middle of JMA's and NAVGEM's China landfall...

[euro6208]

Luzon strait and BIG hit for Hong Kong...

[euro6208]

GFS still has Nida hitting Luzon and hitting west of HK...

[euro6208]

Ah crap...a tiny pinhole eye...It's rapidly intensifying alright...

[Dave C]

short term track seems more westerly last couple hrs.

[euro6208]

HWRF has a typhoon at landfall for Northern Luzon and skirts Hong Kong...

[talkon]

WTPN31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (NIDA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.7N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 18.2N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.6N 121.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.9N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 21.9N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 23.3N 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 24.2N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 124.5E.
TROPICAL STORM 06W (NIDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
301200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z
AND 311500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

40 knots? I don't think so...Convection has cooled further almost -90C surrounding a pinhole like eye...