ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
it got good banding on Barbados radar let see models show later today
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
BobHarlem wrote:Some of it is starting to show up on Barbados Radar.
Barbados Radars: http://www.barbadosweather.org/
link Long term Barbados radar recording.
it show good banding on radar from Barbados Radar
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
BobHarlem wrote:Some of it is starting to show up on Barbados Radar.
Barbados Radars: http://www.barbadosweather.org/
link Long term Barbados radar recording.
Not sure how current the last images of those recordings are. EDIT: Actually, the long term recordings seem up to date, but the other radar links via http://www.barbadosweather.org/ seem about a day old.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
A tropical wave is rapidly moving westward toward the Lesser
Antilles. Although satellite images show a large and well-
organized area of thunderstorms associated with the wave, there are
no signs of a surface circulation, and pressures are not falling
significantly at this time. This system has the potential for some
slow development during the next day or two, but the best chance for
tropical cyclone formation is likely to be by the middle of next
week, when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. This system
is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions
of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight and
Sunday, and then the activity should spread westward across
Hispaniola. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
Antilles. Although satellite images show a large and well-
organized area of thunderstorms associated with the wave, there are
no signs of a surface circulation, and pressures are not falling
significantly at this time. This system has the potential for some
slow development during the next day or two, but the best chance for
tropical cyclone formation is likely to be by the middle of next
week, when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. This system
is expected to bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions
of the Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight and
Sunday, and then the activity should spread westward across
Hispaniola. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of
this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:There has not been a hurricane in August in the Caribbean since 2012. For any system to find a favorable environment there is a big change from the last few years.
You can remove the phrase "in August" and this statement would still be valid. Sandy '12 was the last one (in October that year).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

Most recent image of system approaching barbados
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"I'm a wandress, i'm a one night stand,
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"
dont belong to no city, dont belong to no man
i'm the violence in the pouring rain,
I'm a hurricane"
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Hammy wrote:Has it been under or overdoing genesis/intensity?
I haven't seen intensity, but the track skill has been around 10% worse than GFS, HWRF, and the TCVN consensus.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
RL3AO wrote:Hammy wrote:Has it been under or overdoing genesis/intensity?
I haven't seen intensity, but the track skill has been around 10% worse than GFS, HWRF, and the TCVN consensus.
I made these graphics last week. Accumulated data of Eastern North Pacific activity this year (raw data from tropicalatlantic.com):


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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
This is why shear forecasts can be so difficult. Current SHIPS run below compared to a run from two days ago:
From 2 days ago:
Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 83 92 99 105
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 44 50 57 67 79 60 39 38 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 8 7 9 3 8 2 6 7 11 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -1 -3 3 0 0 -2 -5 -4 1
SHEAR DIR 259 295 325 323 295 299 244 294 223 356 34 37 113
SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1
POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 153 150 149 155 156 158 160 164 169 172
ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 166 164 158 155 159 158 156 155 156 164 166
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 7 9 6 8
700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 62 62 64 66 68 76 78 82 83 85
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 10 8 7 7 10 11 12 13 13
850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 71 76 74 76 93 74 88 71 84 68 56
200 MB DIV 24 36 21 32 48 36 54 13 58 40 76 71 78
700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -10 -1 0 -13 -3 -6 0 -3 6
LAND (KM) 606 498 439 248 190 124 100 253 111 -65 -47 37 -95
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.6 16.0 15.3 15.3 16.1 17.8
LONG(DEG W) 57.3 60.1 62.7 65.1 67.5 72.1 76.2 80.0 82.9 85.1 86.6 87.9 89.1
STM SPEED (KT) 28 26 24 23 23 21 19 17 13 9 6 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 35 47 42 66 63 90 106 56 33 71 84 34 79
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 28 CX,CY: -27/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 26. 33. 40. 47. 53. 62. 69. 75.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 57.3
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.87 5.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 3.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 42.7% 27.8% 12.9% 9.9% 14.4% 25.1%
Logistic: 10.5% 44.2% 25.5% 13.7% 0.0% 28.0% 58.4%
Bayesian: 1.4% 15.4% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.2%
Consensus: 6.8% 34.1% 19.1% 8.9% 3.4% 14.2% 28.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32
18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 43 51 58 65 72 52 33 33 27
12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 36 44 51 58 65 45 26 26 20
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 46 53 33 DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
From 2 days ago:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972016 07/29/16 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 47 51 55 61 68 75
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 30 32 33 35 38 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 13 15 23 26 20 21 18 8 5 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 3 2 -1
SHEAR DIR 26 1 312 312 308 288 294 276 263 264 259 222 91
SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.9 28.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.7 30.2
POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 130 134 138 147 156 152 166 171 165 166 173
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 137 144 149 160 170 163 175 175 167 168 173
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 9 9
700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 54 52 51 55 60 63 63 65 74 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 73 67 52 53 31 46 51 42 56 64 67
200 MB DIV 18 25 34 29 33 9 21 11 24 9 25 38 46
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 16 0 -6 -5 -9 -7 -3 0
LAND (KM) 1440 1318 1224 1163 1073 768 149 -58 88 161 223 49 -128
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.4 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.5 17.7 16.2 14.6
LONG(DEG W) 42.9 45.1 47.4 50.0 52.7 58.5 64.3 70.2 75.4 79.8 83.5 86.4 88.8
STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 24 26 27 29 28 27 23 19 17 15 13
HEAT CONTENT 4 5 10 23 47 31 17 69 79 116 55 16 75
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. 36. 43. 50.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 42.9
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.9% 10.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 3.1%
Bayesian: 999.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 5.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/29/2016 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40
18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 40 37 39 43 49 56 38
12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 35 32 34 38 44 51 33
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 23 25 29 35 42 24
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I think it'll become at least a TS in the SW Gulf next Thu/Fri before moving inland - probably near Tampico, MX. Certainly would not rule out a threat to Texas so far out.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
RL3AO wrote:Alyono wrote:RL3AO wrote:So far in the East Pacific the Euro has been terrible. Only the GFDL has been worse of the consensus models (GFS, UKMET, HWRF, GFDL, Euro, and maybe one more). Just something to keep in mind as we move into August.
which is exactly what I said would happen due to it using a horrible resolution for TCs. The resolution is too fine for paramaterized convection, not too coarse for explicit convection
I still remember thinking that when taking NWP last spring and seeing the info about the Euro update. That 6 to 10 km zone is kinda no mans zone for convection.
I would expand that dead zone to 12km
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
USTropics wrote:This is why shear forecasts can be so difficult. Current SHIPS run below compared to a run from two days ago:Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 83 92 99 105
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 44 50 57 67 79 60 39 38 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 8 7 9 3 8 2 6 7 11 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -1 -3 3 0 0 -2 -5 -4 1
SHEAR DIR 259 295 325 323 295 299 244 294 223 356 34 37 113
SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1
POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 153 150 149 155 156 158 160 164 169 172
ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 166 164 158 155 159 158 156 155 156 164 166
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 7 9 6 8
700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 62 62 64 66 68 76 78 82 83 85
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 10 8 7 7 10 11 12 13 13
850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 71 76 74 76 93 74 88 71 84 68 56
200 MB DIV 24 36 21 32 48 36 54 13 58 40 76 71 78
700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -10 -1 0 -13 -3 -6 0 -3 6
LAND (KM) 606 498 439 248 190 124 100 253 111 -65 -47 37 -95
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.6 16.0 15.3 15.3 16.1 17.8
LONG(DEG W) 57.3 60.1 62.7 65.1 67.5 72.1 76.2 80.0 82.9 85.1 86.6 87.9 89.1
STM SPEED (KT) 28 26 24 23 23 21 19 17 13 9 6 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 35 47 42 66 63 90 106 56 33 71 84 34 79
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 28 CX,CY: -27/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 26. 33. 40. 47. 53. 62. 69. 75.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 57.3
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.87 5.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 3.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 42.7% 27.8% 12.9% 9.9% 14.4% 25.1%
Logistic: 10.5% 44.2% 25.5% 13.7% 0.0% 28.0% 58.4%
Bayesian: 1.4% 15.4% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.2%
Consensus: 6.8% 34.1% 19.1% 8.9% 3.4% 14.2% 28.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32
18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 43 51 58 65 72 52 33 33 27
12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 36 44 51 58 65 45 26 26 20
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 46 53 33 DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
From 2 days ago:Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972016 07/29/16 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 47 51 55 61 68 75
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 30 32 33 35 38 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 13 15 23 26 20 21 18 8 5 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 3 2 -1
SHEAR DIR 26 1 312 312 308 288 294 276 263 264 259 222 91
SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.9 28.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.7 30.2
POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 130 134 138 147 156 152 166 171 165 166 173
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 137 144 149 160 170 163 175 175 167 168 173
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 9 9
700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 54 52 51 55 60 63 63 65 74 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 73 67 52 53 31 46 51 42 56 64 67
200 MB DIV 18 25 34 29 33 9 21 11 24 9 25 38 46
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 16 0 -6 -5 -9 -7 -3 0
LAND (KM) 1440 1318 1224 1163 1073 768 149 -58 88 161 223 49 -128
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.4 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.5 17.7 16.2 14.6
LONG(DEG W) 42.9 45.1 47.4 50.0 52.7 58.5 64.3 70.2 75.4 79.8 83.5 86.4 88.8
STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 24 26 27 29 28 27 23 19 17 15 13
HEAT CONTENT 4 5 10 23 47 31 17 69 79 116 55 16 75
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. 36. 43. 50.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 42.9
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.9% 10.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 3.1%
Bayesian: 999.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 5.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/29/2016 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40
18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 40 37 39 43 49 56 38
12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 35 32 34 38 44 51 33
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 23 25 29 35 42 24
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
so shear going less and forecast from other day chart i not good reading this?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
The SHIPs output was too fast and too far north over the past couple days and brought 97L into a more unfavorable environment.
Example - 48 hr forecast from 7/29 0z was to have low at 18.5N, 58.5W. The 7/31 0z position was 14.9N, 57.3W. Much further south and therefore in a better environment.
Example - 48 hr forecast from 7/29 0z was to have low at 18.5N, 58.5W. The 7/31 0z position was 14.9N, 57.3W. Much further south and therefore in a better environment.
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- Professional-Met
- Posts: 2650
- Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
- Location: Florida State University
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
floridasun78 wrote:USTropics wrote:This is why shear forecasts can be so difficult. Current SHIPS run below compared to a run from two days ago:Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 83 92 99 105
V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32
V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 44 50 57 67 79 60 39 38 34
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 8 7 9 3 8 2 6 7 11 1
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -1 -3 3 0 0 -2 -5 -4 1
SHEAR DIR 259 295 325 323 295 299 244 294 223 356 34 37 113
SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1
POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 153 150 149 155 156 158 160 164 169 172
ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 166 164 158 155 159 158 156 155 156 164 166
200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0
200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 7 9 6 8
700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 62 62 64 66 68 76 78 82 83 85
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 10 8 7 7 10 11 12 13 13
850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 71 76 74 76 93 74 88 71 84 68 56
200 MB DIV 24 36 21 32 48 36 54 13 58 40 76 71 78
700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -10 -1 0 -13 -3 -6 0 -3 6
LAND (KM) 606 498 439 248 190 124 100 253 111 -65 -47 37 -95
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.6 16.0 15.3 15.3 16.1 17.8
LONG(DEG W) 57.3 60.1 62.7 65.1 67.5 72.1 76.2 80.0 82.9 85.1 86.6 87.9 89.1
STM SPEED (KT) 28 26 24 23 23 21 19 17 13 9 6 9 11
HEAT CONTENT 35 47 42 66 63 90 106 56 33 71 84 34 79
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 28 CX,CY: -27/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.4
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 26. 33. 40. 47. 53. 62. 69. 75.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 57.3
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 5.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.87 5.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 2.1
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.6
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 3.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 42.7% 27.8% 12.9% 9.9% 14.4% 25.1%
Logistic: 10.5% 44.2% 25.5% 13.7% 0.0% 28.0% 58.4%
Bayesian: 1.4% 15.4% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.2%
Consensus: 6.8% 34.1% 19.1% 8.9% 3.4% 14.2% 28.6%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32
18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 43 51 58 65 72 52 33 33 27
12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 36 44 51 58 65 45 26 26 20
6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 46 53 33 DIS DIS DIS
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
From 2 days ago:Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL972016 07/29/16 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 47 51 55 61 68 75
V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 30 32 33 35 38 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 13 15 23 26 20 21 18 8 5 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 3 2 -1
SHEAR DIR 26 1 312 312 308 288 294 276 263 264 259 222 91
SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.9 28.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.7 30.2
POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 130 134 138 147 156 152 166 171 165 166 173
ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 137 144 149 160 170 163 175 175 167 168 173
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 9 9
700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 54 52 51 55 60 63 63 65 74 75
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 73 67 52 53 31 46 51 42 56 64 67
200 MB DIV 18 25 34 29 33 9 21 11 24 9 25 38 46
700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 16 0 -6 -5 -9 -7 -3 0
LAND (KM) 1440 1318 1224 1163 1073 768 149 -58 88 161 223 49 -128
LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.4 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.5 17.7 16.2 14.6
LONG(DEG W) 42.9 45.1 47.4 50.0 52.7 58.5 64.3 70.2 75.4 79.8 83.5 86.4 88.8
STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 24 26 27 29 28 27 23 19 17 15 13
HEAT CONTENT 4 5 10 23 47 31 17 69 79 116 55 16 75
FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. 36. 43. 50.
CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 42.9
** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)
Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.1
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 0.8
MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.2
% AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%)
Matrix of RI probabilities
---------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.9% 10.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7%
Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 3.1%
Bayesian: 999.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 5.0%
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/29/2016 18 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED
** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40
18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 40 37 39 43 49 56 38
12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 35 32 34 38 44 51 33
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 23 25 29 35 42 24
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT
so shear going less and forecast from other day chart i not good reading this?
Correct. If the shear forecast from two days ago verified, 97L would currently be under 20+ knots of shear.
Current observed shear:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Those whipping trade winds may be the main thing that keeps this from having a really really favorable environment.
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Looks likely to develop in the Western Caribbean and then move to the west more into the GOM, possibly across the Yucatan Peninsula.


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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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