ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

#281 Postby **RL3AO** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:35 pm

Wondering if we could see a significant shift north if it develops quicker than expected. Models keep it really strung out until the Western Caribbean.

Kazmit · #282 Postby **Kazmit** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:37 pm

Some interesting intensity guidances... The majority shows it at least gaining TS strength. A few even show it becoming a Cat 3 major :eek:

#283 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:37 pm

RL3AO wrote:Wondering if we could see a significant shift north if it develops quicker than expected. Models keep it really strung out until the Western Caribbean.

not likely. Maybe even a farther south track if it develops quickly. HWRF is developing this quickly and it is one of the most southern models.

Given the deep layered ridging, I don't see a stronger system moving more north in the north term

#284 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:42 pm

Alyono wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Wondering if we could see a significant shift north if it develops quicker than expected. Models keep it really strung out until the Western Caribbean.

not likely. Maybe even a farther south track if it develops quickly. HWRF is developing this quickly and it is one of the most southern models.

Given the deep layered ridging, I don't see a stronger system moving more north in the north term

Have the models handled ridges that far out well this year?

#285 Postby **USTropics** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 9:44 pm

97L coming into full view on the Guadeloupe/Martinique radar:

Link:http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-meteo-antilles-guyane/animation/radar/antilles

#286 Postby **NDG** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 11:33 pm

USTropics wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:
USTropics wrote:This is why shear forecasts can be so difficult. Current SHIPS run below compared to a run from two days ago:

Code: Select all
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 83 92 99 105 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 37 41 44 50 57 67 79 60 39 38 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 8 7 9 3 8 2 6 7 11 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 0 -1 -3 3 0 0 -2 -5 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 259 295 325 323 295 299 244 294 223 356 34 37 113 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.6 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 149 153 153 150 149 155 156 158 160 164 169 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 162 163 166 164 158 155 159 158 156 155 156 164 166 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.0 -52.6 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 11 7 9 6 8 700-500 MB RH 59 59 62 62 62 64 66 68 76 78 82 83 85 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 9 11 10 8 7 7 10 11 12 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 68 65 71 76 74 76 93 74 88 71 84 68 56 200 MB DIV 24 36 21 32 48 36 54 13 58 40 76 71 78 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 -10 -1 0 -13 -3 -6 0 -3 6 LAND (KM) 606 498 439 248 190 124 100 253 111 -65 -47 37 -95 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 16.9 16.6 16.0 15.3 15.3 16.1 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 57.3 60.1 62.7 65.1 67.5 72.1 76.2 80.0 82.9 85.1 86.6 87.9 89.1 STM SPEED (KT) 28 26 24 23 23 21 19 17 13 9 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 47 42 66 63 90 106 56 33 71 84 34 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 28 CX,CY: -27/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -3. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 18. 26. 33. 40. 47. 53. 62. 69. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 57.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.86 5.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 50.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.33 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.87 5.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.37 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.94 3.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 133.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 42.7% 27.8% 12.9% 9.9% 14.4% 25.1% Logistic: 10.5% 44.2% 25.5% 13.7% 0.0% 28.0% 58.4% Bayesian: 1.4% 15.4% 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 2.2% Consensus: 6.8% 34.1% 19.1% 8.9% 3.4% 14.2% 28.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/31/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 44 48 56 63 70 77 57 38 38 32 18HR AGO 30 29 33 39 43 51 58 65 72 52 33 33 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 36 44 51 58 65 45 26 26 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 39 46 53 33 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

From 2 days ago:
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL972016 07/29/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 47 51 55 61 68 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 33 30 32 33 35 38 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 5 9 13 15 23 26 20 21 18 8 5 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 -2 1 -1 0 0 3 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 26 1 312 312 308 288 294 276 263 264 259 222 91 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.9 28.7 29.6 29.9 29.6 29.7 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 130 134 138 147 156 152 166 171 165 166 173 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 132 137 144 149 160 170 163 175 175 167 168 173 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 9 9 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 54 52 51 55 60 63 63 65 74 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 81 73 67 52 53 31 46 51 42 56 64 67 200 MB DIV 18 25 34 29 33 9 21 11 24 9 25 38 46 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 1 0 16 0 -6 -5 -9 -7 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1440 1318 1224 1163 1073 768 149 -58 88 161 223 49 -128 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.8 15.4 16.1 17.4 18.5 18.8 19.0 18.5 17.7 16.2 14.6 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 45.1 47.4 50.0 52.7 58.5 64.3 70.2 75.4 79.8 83.5 86.4 88.8 STM SPEED (KT) 21 22 24 26 27 29 28 27 23 19 17 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 10 23 47 31 17 69 79 116 55 16 75 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 30. 35. 40. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 17. 22. 26. 30. 36. 43. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.0 42.9 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.81 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.30 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.25 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 53.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.47 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 151.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 16.9% 10.6% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 3.1% Bayesian: 999.0% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 999.0% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL972016 INVEST 07/29/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL972016 INVEST 07/29/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 33 38 42 39 41 45 51 58 40 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 31 36 40 37 39 43 49 56 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 35 32 34 38 44 51 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 26 23 25 29 35 42 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

so shear going less and forecast from other day chart i not good reading this?

Correct. If the shear forecast from two days ago verified, 97L would currently be under 20+ knots of shear.

Current observed shear:

GFS and Euro for days have been showing that shear was not going to be a problem.

Hurricaneman · #287 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Jul 30, 2016 11:36 pm

Based on the 0zGFS it seems to based on the 999mb into Northern Mexico it most likely is a hurricane with better resolution which also based on the GFS people of south Texas need to watch this and hopefully they don't get hurricane conditions

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Siker · #288 Postby **Siker** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:31 am

The 00z GFS ensemble mean is actually stronger than the operational:

#289 Postby **Rgv20** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 12:38 am

By day 7 the 0zGFS Operational is a bit SW of the 0zGFS Ensemble Mean with regards to 97L....it also looks like a quite a few members are a bit robust with 97L! CMC still not developing this disturbance.

#290 Postby **Rgv20** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:03 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A fast-moving tropical wave is nearing the Lesser Antilles. Although
showers and thunderstorms are fairly well-organized, there are
currently no signs a closed surface circulation. However, this
system has the potential for some slow development during the next
couple of days, but the best chance for tropical cyclone formation
is likely to be by the early to middle part of next week when the
wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to
bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Lesser
Antilles, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today. Shower and
thunderstorm activity should spread westward across the eastern
Caribbean Sea and Hispaniola by tonight and on Monday. Interests in
these areas should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

#291 Postby **Rgv20** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:10 am

0zHWRF still aggressive..

By the end of the run it has 97L in the BOC/SW Gulf..

#292 Postby **tarheelprogrammer** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:12 am

ECMWF looks to initialize the storm too far north. At least I think so.

Blinhart · #293 Postby **Blinhart** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:12 am

I think that if this can make it in the Yucatan pass between the YP and Cuba as either a strong TS or Cat. 1 I think the possibility is there for it to explode to some catastrophic if the weakness in the Ridge over Texas actually does pan out and opens up it could be a problem from anywhere from Galveston and New Orleans. If the weakness doesn't form it still might be a descent storm for Brownsville South. I think in between Brownsville and Galveston will not see the landfall. If it starts slowing down and does stay over open water and go towards the North there is I say a 70% chance of being at least a Cat 4 for a little bit if not more. If it stays south it shouldn't be any higher than Cat. 2.

Hammy · #294 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 1:39 am

Euro is not bringing this into the GoM, and I think Harvey in 2011 could be a good analog system.

http://199.9.2.143/tcdat/tc11/ATL/08L.HARVEY/vis/geo/1km/20110815.2015.goes13.x.vis1km.93LINVEST.25kts-1010mb-136N-592W.100pc.jpg
Wave as it passed through the Antilles.

#295 Postby **chaser1** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 2:53 am

Really beginning to convect and am curious if we'll begin to see some pressure falls today.

Hammy · #296 Postby **Hammy** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:08 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:ECMWF looks to initialize the storm too far north. At least I think so.

GFS pushed development back a full day over the course of a single run, and is much further south (closer to the Euro) so this is looking less likely to make it into the Gulf. Euro is likely on to something here, and the main low-level 'spin' seems to be outrunning the convection to the south and west due to the forward speed.

ninel conde · #297 Postby **ninel conde** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:32 am

Euro much more realistic as the far south BOC is a favored place lately though i think it wont get that far north.

#298 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 5:38 am

https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/759693739371659264

#299 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:32 am

It was the UKMET that started this southward trend in the track yesterday. The 00Z UKMET still shows this never making it into the BOC with redevelopment in the EPAC:

TheStormExpert · #300 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sun Jul 31, 2016 6:33 am

Cannot rule out a hurricane hit on NE Mexico or S. Texas.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/759709875270217728

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/759710319837085696

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/759710501958025216

ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

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