tropical wave now entering the extreme eastern Caribbean Sea are
disorganized, while satellite data and surface observations indicate
no signs of a closed surface circulation. Although some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days, the chance for tropical cyclone formation should increase
after the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in a couple of
days. This disturbance is expected to bring locally heavy rains and
gusty winds to portions of the Lesser Antilles, the Virgin Islands,
and Puerto Rico today. These conditions should spread westward
across the eastern and central Caribbean Sea tonight and reach
Hispaniola on Monday. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent