ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

I'd argue, with a ridge to the north, this has a better chance perhaps of going into Honduras or Nicaragua and then into the EPAC?

[Kazmit]

Development appears to be almost certain. Main question is whether this has a chance to impact the NW Gulf or just stay down south in Mexico. Models are pointing to a Mexico final landfall at present. Wouldn't rule out Texas, though. We began issuing advisories yesterday, predicting development in the western Caribbean and a 50kt TS striking Tampico next weekend (a bit conservative on intensity to start with).

That is an important factor here. If it stays south over the Bay of Campeche, like the Euro predicts, it may not exceed tropical storm strength. However, if it goes on a more northernly track, it could take advantage of the warm water and low shear and become a hurricane. Mexico and Texas should start monitoring this storm. Either way, it's likely to become Earl.

[northjaxpro]

Who is saying we are in a state of panic? All I am saying is to watch it carefully. As we always do anyway. We do not even have a fully mature system yet. I guess some folks just look for anything to exploit you on this forum for Pete's sake

[srainhoutx]

The morning Updated Day 8+ Super Ensembles suggest there may not be as much Ridging to the North as some may think. While it is certainly too soon to contemplate any potential threat without an actual surface circulation to actually track and analyze, interests from Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Yucatan Peninsula and the Western Gulf Coast should be monitoring developments closely the next several days. TC Genesis probabilities are near 90% in the Gulf of Honduras Wednesday in Thursday.

[Alyono]

Even if this is buried in the boc, a hurricane may well form. More worried about impacts in boc due to past flood disasters such as diana and stan

[cycloneye]

First mission as low level invest on the afternoon of August 2.

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[centuryv58]

Well, I guess the MDR will be active this season after all

[tolakram]

live visible
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1024&height=725&type=Animation&quality=90&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&map=county&mapcolor=gray

Might be trying to consolidate an LLC south of the main convection.

[tolakram]

Closer view
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=14&lon=-67&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=725&type=Animation&quality=90&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=7&map=county&mapcolor=gray

It's in the graveyard at the moment, rare for anything to get going in this area in my opinion.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

 31/1145 UTC   15.0N     62.7W       T1.5/1.5         97L -- Atlantic 

[znel52]

Even if it can't be classified yet it almost feels weird seeing something semi-organized holding together in the Caribbean. Seems like it's been so long!

[Hurricaneman]

This already looks like a tropical depression to me but its going to hit the TUTT in about less than 24hrs but after that it seems all systems go for 97L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[CaliforniaResident]

Even if it can't be classified yet it almost feels weird seeing something semi-organized holding together in the Caribbean. Seems like it's been so long!

If the timing is right, it could literally explode from almost nothing to a MH in a very short time when it hits that "sweet spot." Could this also be the start of a conveyor belt in the Atlantic for the month of the August?

[NDG]

Very well organized in the mid levels.

[Hurricaneman]

Even if it can't be classified yet it almost feels weird seeing something semi-organized holding together in the Caribbean. Seems like it's been so long!

If the timing is right, it could literally explode from almost nothing to a MH in a very short time when it hits that "sweet spot." Could this also be the start of a conveyor belt in the Atlantic for the month of the August?

If the GFS is correct it could be but let's concentrate on 97L as this could be more than a minor inconvenience for Central America

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[znel52]

This already looks like a tropical depression to me but its going to hit the TUTT in about less than 24hrs but after that it seems all systems go for 97L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Definitely on the cusp of being classified. I don't believe the LLC is closed off yet but it is close and appears to be getting better organized.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

I think they will upgrade this next NHC update..with or without flight. Satelittle signature is good and it has good conditions ahead of it

[JaxGator]

This already looks like a tropical depression to me but its going to hit the TUTT in about less than 24hrs but after that it seems all systems go for 97L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

The anti-cyclone aloft should help some with that. And the shear isn't as bad as yesterday to the west of it.

[NDG]

This already looks like a tropical depression to me but its going to hit the TUTT in about less than 24hrs but after that it seems all systems go for 97L

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

The TUTT/ULL has been retrograding westward all along ahead of 97L, it has not been permanent like previous seasons.
GFS and Euro forecast that the UL anticyclone will stay pretty on top of 97L all the way into the BOC.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/759775276331048960