ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

For folks that might not be aware, over the last decade plus, The CMO's Caribbean Regional Weather Radar Project was developed to install and maintain weather surveillance radars at strategic sites throughout the Caribbean.

http://www.cmo.org.tt/radar.html

This is a challenging undertaking, primarily due to fiscal/monetary constraints. The construction/installation part is hard enough, and the cost associated with maintenance and repair results in frequent, and, as you've no doubt noticed, often significant down time for many of the sites, some moreso than others.

One of the important goals of the project was to create a Caribbean radar mosaic of all available radars, plus some adjoining CONUS and SOAM sites (perhaps one day, sites from Cuba, Mexico CENTAM, and the Bahamas will be included as well).

http://i.imgur.com/MXsGAhK.png

You've no doubt seen the U.S. mosaic (animation)...
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

But have you seen that the Barbados Weather Service now has the Caribbean Mosaic up and running?
http://barbadosweather.org/BMS_radar_Composite.php
http://barbadosweather.org/Composite/ki ... site=Sabre

IMO, this is huge, that this has gotten to the point where it's online. We can only hope the sites that are up stay up as much as possible, some other sites (such as Punta Cana, DR and Nassau,BHM that have been down for a while get repaired.

Note: I posted this in the 97L discussion thread since the current radar mosaic covers the area it's in.

Thanks for sharing and no I didn't know it was this many countries involved. Great to see all working together.
Also you can see a rotation south of P.R. trucking westward, above the surface for now I'm sure.

[tarheelprogrammer]

How good have the models been at showing the ridge at its right strength this year so far?

[Javlin]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759809426022928384

Looking at that and going back and looking at the RGB I think he may be right and which is not uncommon in the birth of these systems have competing centers which could be at play also.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759821086028595200




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/759821673994608640

[tailgater]

Looks like the most vorticity is near 16N

[Nimbus]

Convective burst at 18:45 UTC.
That should help focus the inflow.

[NDG]

HWRF might be right after all of a closed circulation forming south of Hispaniola, vorticity getting stronger.

[Ptarmigan]

Things to consider.

[AJC3]

HWRF might be right after all of a closed circulation forming south of Hispaniola, vorticity getting stronger.

All it needs to do is decelerate just a little.

That'll reduce the translational (east to west) ground relative wind component due to the fast forward motion, which, in and of itself, will turn the light winds on its south side into westerlies.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Good radar floater up from NWS.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_nws_radar_floater&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12

[gatorcane]

ECMWF into Central America and then Mexico, along the coast of the extreme southern BOC. Quite a ridge over the Gulf and Texas pushing this well south.

[TheStormExpert]

18z Model Guidance with 12z GEFS Ensembles. Looks to bury itself further south in the Bay of Campeche, chances of a Texas hit are decreasing.

[Rgv20]

NWS Brownsville afternoon discussion..

Meanwhile, an area of scattered to numerous showers and tstorms is
moving west across the eastern Caribbean. The convection is
associated with a strong and fast-moving tropical wave, with axis
extending from 21N63W to 10N64W. The chance of tropical cyclone
formation should increase after the wave reaches the western
Caribbean Sea in a couple of days. For now, this feature has a
medium chance of development within the next 48 hours and a high
chance of development within five days.

Mid level ridging will tend to block or resist the northern movement
of any tropical feature late in the week. The GFS appears to allow a
surface feature to slowly evolve in the Bay of Campeche on Friday
and Saturday, with a possible slow northward drift along the
northeast Mexican coast going deeper into the weekend, while the
ECMWF tracks the surface feature farther south and more over land,
as does the Canadian.

Tropical moisture will increase across deep South Texas late in the
week into next weekend. PWAT will jump to above two inches on Friday
and Saturday. Will use a model consensus for now which trends pops
up and elevates QPFs into the tenth of inches per six hours by
Sunday. High temps will naturally be moderated over the weekend with
additional cloud cover and higher rain chances.

[srainhoutx]

Those 18Z track models initiated about 200 km too far South according San Juan Radar. Use them cautiously.

[Tireman4]

I agree with Srain. ...

[gatorcane]

12Z UKMET even more ridging over the Gulf which in turn drives the system WSW with strong re-development in the EPAC as the system moves along the shore if the Mexico coastline

[gatorcane]

It's been a while since we have seen a developing system in the Eastern/Central Caribbean...

Saved loop:

[Alyono]

With the ridging to the north, the initialization does not matter for the Gulf

Where is may pose an issue is for the intensity forecast into Belize. May keep it far enough north so that stays far enough away from Honduras to intensify.

Also, I have noticed that during the past 15 years, the models usually have a TC that turns too far north in the Caribbean and Gulf this time of year. This issue started with Chantal in 2001

[Alyono]

The low level winds are not that favorable now. It's not an issue of this moving too quickly. Many TCs have developed moving at this speed. We simply do not have sufficient low level convergence.

The low level convergence is the single most important factor for genesis I have found. TCs have developed in very high shear environments with favorable low level winds. However, this one, despite a great upper environment, is not able to develop due to insufficient convergence

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to becoming more organized. But where is the center?