ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Nimbus]

Convection at the diurnal max appears to be on the increase near the northwestern LLC that we have been tracking. Mid level center may just stack eventually?

Still plenty of time before this gets in the western Caribbean so really not worth microanalyses.
Generally convection does increase the inflow and strengthen a weak system such as 97L.

[tolakram]

I have to say this does not look decoupled to me, unless you believe the MLC somehow outran the rapidly moving LLC. Looks like the typical pulse one gets when a storm is organizing. The next TWO will be interesting, as will first visible tomorrow morning. This is the zone where storms look great and then poof overnight.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I have to say this does not look decoupled to me, unless you believe the MLC somehow outran the rapidly moving LLC. Looks like the typical pulse one gets when a storm is organizing. The next TWO will be interesting, as will first visible tomorrow morning. This is the zone where storms look great and then poof overnight.

I agree but I do respect LC a lot. This storm seems better organized than I thought but models do not do much with it for some odd reason.

[tropicwatch]

The structure appears to have become much better organized since Levi's thoughts on it this morning. The next TWO might tell the tale.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF still so this developing into a weak TS and given the improved surface convergence as it nears the Western Caribbean, that seems reasonable, especially given the improved satellite signature. will this become a hurricane in the Gulf though? Probably not, but I'm fairly certain this will develop.

[TheStormExpert]

I feel global models do not have a good handle on 97L.

[tailgater]

Puerto Rico has some training of a rain band occurring and it might last a while. Luis might be able to give an update.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JUA&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

[Javlin]

The structure appears to have become much better organized since Levi's thoughts on it this morning. The next TWO might tell the tale.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I just looked and their does seem to be some consolidation taking place have to see if it holds together though.

[cycloneye]

Is in the graveyard right now so let,s see how it moves thru it but so far it has passed the exam.

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/759894625788137472




Edit: MLC looks to be meeting up with the LLC. Consolidation?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea continue to show
signs of organization, but there is still no evidence of a closed
surface circulation. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in
a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to cause locally
heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight. These conditions are also
spreading across Hispaniola, and should reach Jamaica and Cuba by
late Monday as the wave moves westward near 25 mph over the central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Best looking wave of the year though. Models handled it fairly well overall.

I agree, was a good practice run. They have been showing this outcome since it came off Africa, basically due west with no development. Well most besides that ridiculous hwrf that turns everything into a hurricane. Refreshing to see the Cmc and gfs not showing cat 5's hitting big coastal cities this go around.

[Blinhart]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean Sea continue to show
signs of organization, but there is still no evidence of a closed
surface circulation. This system has the potential to become a
tropical cyclone when the wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea in
a couple of days. The disturbance is expected to cause locally
heavy rains and gusty winds over portions of the Leeward Islands,
the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico tonight. These conditions are also
spreading across Hispaniola, and should reach Jamaica and Cuba by
late Monday as the wave moves westward near 25 mph over the central
Caribbean Sea. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western
Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this
system. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Are they just doing copy and paste for the last couple TWD? I think it should of been classified at least a TD right now so they can start giving warnings and watches where needed.

[vbhoutex]

IIRC NHC will post any watches or warnings they feel are needed even if it isn't yet a TD or TC. This is new this year. I may have it wrong and if I do someone with the correct information feel free to correct me.

[tarheelprogrammer]

This looks like a TD to me but it is only my opinion. I have seen worse just this year classified.

[AJC3]

Are they just doing copy and paste for the last couple TWD? I think it should of been classified at least a TD right now so they can start giving warnings and watches where needed.

The product is the TWO, not the TWD, which is issued by TAFB.

AS has been stated by dozens of folks on here, and as clearly shown in the data, there is no closed circulation, therefore there is no tropical depression.

As far as watches go, given it's location, and the uncertainty that a TC will actually form, I suspect the governmental met agencies are content with having NHC hold off an the option of issuing watches before the system actually develops. Historically, low end TS conditions have occurred on the northern flank of strong, fast moving T-waves, and as long as persons are apprised that those conditions may or will occur, then they can take appropriate action.

[AJC3]

This looks like a TD to me but it is only my opinion. I have seen worse just this year classified.

Worse looking, but having a closed LL wind center. It's pretty clear based on radar and observations, that this doesn't have one.

[AJC3]

IIRC NHC will post any watches or warnings they feel are needed even if it isn't yet a TD or TC. This is new this year. I may have it wrong and if I do someone with the correct information feel free to correct me.

And it's important for our members to keep in mind that NHC doesn't unilaterally issue TC watches and warnings for foreign countries. What they do is suggest/propose them, but the final call is made by the affected country. NHC is one of several dissemination conduits for watches/warnings.

[NDG]

Buoy now reporting SSE winds after reporting ENE winds before the tropical wave's axis went through.

[code]Conditions at 42059 as of
(7:40 pm AST)
2340 GMT on 07/31/2016:



- Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSE ( 150 deg true
- Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
- Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 19.4 kts
- Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
[code]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[Javlin]

Anybody know where to find the latest T numbers?