ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[znel52]

When/if this thing closes off an LLC I think it makes the jump straight to TS. If it maintains current appearance that is.

[Javlin]

It's close on having a closed center imo.
http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/wind ... 0_noaa.png

I saw the E half of the ASACT and was wondering .I tell you these Mets on the board always have an inside scoop kinda like inside trading

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM 32km is much more intense.

18z:


0z:

[TheAustinMan]

ASCAT METOP-A pass of Invest 97L.



High-resolution:

[ozonepete]

The CDO is certainly impressive. The CDO will likely intensify and expand overnight during DMAX. And right over where the low level center should be forming.

[Kazmit]

When/if this thing closes off an LLC I think it makes the jump straight to TS. If it maintains current appearance that is.

Exactly. Winds gusts are already tropical storm strength, and sustained winds are nearing it as well. All it needs is a well defined center and it's a TS. It could form earlier than predicted, if it slows down a bit.

[TheAustinMan]

I made an overlay of the METOP-A AMSU 89GHz microwave pass over the infrared satellite imagery. The scatterometer data from earlier suggested that this is still an open (albeit sharp) wave, but it certainly is attempting to solidify some sort of circulation within the dense convective envelope.

[whatacane]

MAN . 97 is on fire . NHC should upgrade at 2? mabey even name it ?

[znel52]

MAN . 97 is on fire . NHC should upgrade at 2? mabey even name it ?

Doubtful, there is still no strong evidence of a closed LLC. Though I suppose stranger things have happened. I don't know the hurricane hunters protocol but hopefully they bump up the recon mission to tomorrow if this storm maintains. I don't think they are currently scheduled to fly into the storm until Tues or Wed.

[Kazmit]

MAN . 97 is on fire . NHC should upgrade at 2? mabey even name it ?

We shall have to see, but I don't know if the center is well defined enough, and if it is organized enough to be upgraded. It has winds nearing tropical storm strength, though.

[AxaltaRacing24]

MAN . 97 is on fire . NHC should upgrade at 2? mabey even name it ?

Just needs that closed LLC and it will be golden.

[floridasun78]

this year we have QuickSCAT on ssi to help get wind data for nhc remember we loss of QuikSCAT in 2009. this was big lost for nhc thast help get nhc when no weather station near by or buoys this helping nhc keep eye wind with 97l could use to upgrade to td that plane not gone into 97l yet

[whatacane]

MAN . 97 is on fire . NHC should upgrade at 2? mabey even name it ?

We shall have to see, but I don't know if the center is well defined enough, and if it is organized enough to be upgraded. It has winds nearing tropical storm strength, though.

Thank you ! I

[Javlin]

When/if this thing closes off an LLC I think it makes the jump straight to TS. If it maintains current appearance that is.

Exactly. Winds gusts are already tropical storm strength, and sustained winds are nearing it as well. All it needs is a well defined center and it's a TS. It could form earlier than predicted, if it slows down a bit.

Someone calculated earlier a page or to back that it appears the forward speed has slowed some.Maybe one of the Mets can chime in on my thoughts and confirm or deny the effects.I see these systems as mass air=fluid air is treated as fluid in engineering capacities.So as this system starts to consolidate it is bring together many more particles and accumulating mass/weight requiring more energy for forward movement.The afforded energy that is present did not change but the mass of the system did.That's the way I view it maybe off base some?

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS is stronger but weird movements up to landfall in Mexico. I don't see the ridge if I am not mistaken but still pushed into Mexico? Low pressure hangs around in B.O.C?

[Nimbus]

There wasn't much storm relative shear earlier so this convection could persist I suppose.
I'm kind of hoping a LLC tries to race out from underneath that CDO this morning otherwise maybe a recon for the sake of Jamaica might be in order..

[znel52]

There wasn't much storm relative shear earlier so this convection could persist I suppose.
I'm kind of hoping a LLC tries to race out from underneath that CDO this morning otherwise maybe a recon for the sake of Jamaica might be in order..

I'm interested to see what happens when it gets south of DR/Haiti. Will the terrain there disrupt some of the storms 'flow' and result in some weakening? Right now it isn't looking good it appears to be getting better organized with every new satellite image.

[whatacane]

looking at the sat image there appears to be a white speck starting to show what is this ?

[znel52]

looking at the sat image there appears to be a white speck starting to show what is this ?

Are you looking at the colored RBTOP imagery? If so the white areas are intense storms firing off in the storms CDO. I'm i'm not mistaken white is -80C cloud tops. Intense storms...

[Hurricaneman]

looking at the sat image there appears to be a white speck starting to show what is this ?

its convective in nature as in higher thunderstorm tops

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