Wave between Bermuda and Greater Antilles

[Hurricaneman]

Seems to have some model support for development as it gets near the Caribbean and has the look of something that may develop so the only thing we must watch for is if it goes poof and or if it regenerates farther west

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS has it becoming a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico @ 384hrs.

[Siker]

06z GEFS has a lot of members developing this as it nears the Eastern Caribbean:

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/Adriansweather/status/759777280033972224

[Siker]

Wrapping up nicely on the 12z GFS:

[Siker]

End of the 12z GFS, takes its sweet time organizing after crossing over both Hispaniola and Cuba.

[TheStormExpert]

18z has a hurricane hit on Pensacola, FL with this wave 360hrs. out.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z has a hurricane hit on Pensacola, FL with this wave 360hrs. out.

So, from Mexico to Florida. You have to like the consistency it is showing.

[TheStormExpert]

18z has a hurricane hit on Pensacola, FL with this wave 360hrs. out.

So, from Mexico to Florida. You have to like the consistency it is showing.

Go figure it's 360hrs. out.

Usually when you're under the gun by a storm this far out on the models you never get hit by it.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z has a hurricane hit on Pensacola, FL with this wave 360hrs. out.

So, from Mexico to Florida. You have to like the consistency it is showing.

Go figure it's 360hrs. out.

Usually when you're under the gun by a storm this far out on the models you never get hit by it.

Yeah when you see your area hit by a storm this far out you feel confident it won't be you but if you see Jim Cantore in your area. RUN. FAR. AWAY!

[TheAustinMan]

The 00z GFS is running and once again has this system entering the Caribbean Sea, though it's still far out on the forecasting timescale. Here it is entering the Caribbean on August 9, with a upper-level anticyclone atop to reduce the shear about the system. Still fairly far out, but interests in the area should keep an eye on the model trends.

[Siker]

00z CMC is a little weird in how it handles the energy of the wave, but it has a storm from it in the same time frame:

[Hammy]

00z CMC is a little weird in how it handles the energy of the wave, but it has a storm from it in the same time frame:

Seems to interact it too much with the ITCZ--it did the same with 96L, having it stall for several days (which obviously didn't happen.)

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has this going for Brownsville landfall at 360hrs but that will change many times before we know the final outcome

[Siker]

Quite the run from the GFS; here is the final pre-landfall image after significant strengthening in the Gulf:

[Siker]

06z GFS is fairly weak, doesn't develop the wave at all until it reaches the Western Caribbean at which point it becomes a massive gyre-like system. Here's the final frame:

[cycloneye]

All the attention is rightly so to 97L but down the road if GFS is right,this wave will get all the attention.

[TheStormExpert]

Still way early in the game but the 12z GFS drops development.

[gatorcane]

Add to that the CMC has dropped development. Latest ECMWF with some development near Yucatan in long-range (edited to reflect rest of ECMWF run)

[TheStormExpert]

12z Euro finally shows this tropical wave developing in the Western Caribbean around 216hrs. From there it tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula into the SW Gulf of Mexico where it gets down to 1006mb @ 240hrs.