ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[whatacane]

looking at the sat image there appears to be a white speck starting to show what is this ?

Are you looking at the colored RBTOP imagery? If so the white areas are intense storms firing off in the storms CDO. I'm i'm not mistaken white is -80C cloud tops. Intense storms...

yes I'm looking at the colored inferred image. and there is a white speck that appears to be getting bigger idk. thank you

[Aric Dunn]

I would not be surprised if a recon plane was out there that it would find a closed circ at this point. been watching the data all day.. =\

[whatacane]

looking at the sat image there appears to be a white speck starting to show what is this ?

Are you looking at the colored RBTOP imagery? If so the white areas are intense storms firing off in the storms CDO. I'm i'm not mistaken white is -80C cloud tops. Intense storms...

yes I'm looking at the colored inferred image. and there is a white speck that appears to be getting bigger idk. thank you

could be a tower where the center is trying to form?

[Aric Dunn]

yes I'm looking at the colored inferred image. and there is a white speck that appears to be getting bigger idk. thank you

could be a tower where the center is trying to form?

I convective pattern would typically indicate a TC. the forward motion would be the only cause for concern. However if the convection is supported by strong enough convergence it can over come the forward motion and and develop a west wind. typically with eastern carrib systems( and why the nhc is not worried at this point) are moving to fast to close off a west wind (by definition) though the physics and mechanics of TC are still there.

[Yellow Evan]

This is otherwise classifiable, but is there a closed center is the question.

[whatacane]

This is otherwise classifiable, but is there a closed center is the question.

Thank you ,

[Javlin]

If we wake up in the morning and the forward precipitation pattern is over the Yuc channel pay attention

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

[chaser1]

Looks to me to be very very close. Also looks to me to possibly have quite a pinhole center. Only thing I might add to the model discussion is that I believe it was initialized about 1 1/2 degrees too far south, and my guess would be at 16.5N and 68.5W.

[Nikki]

97L now up to 70/80

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea about 200
miles south of the Dominican Republic has increased and become
significantly better organized overnight. Although this system still
lacks a closed surface circulation, recent satellite-derived surface
wind data and ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force
winds of 40 to 45 mph are occurring on the northern and eastern
areas of the large disturbance. If this recent development trend
continues, then a tropical storm could form later today when the
wave moves into the central Caribbean Sea, or by early Tuesday as it
approaches Jamaica and moves into the western Caribbean Sea. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are expected over Hispaniola today, and
reaching Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday as the system moves
westward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in
the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of
this strong disturbance. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong and fast-moving
tropical wave located over the east-central Caribbean Sea about 200
miles south of the Dominican Republic has increased and become
significantly better organized overnight. Although this system still
lacks a closed surface circulation, recent satellite-derived surface
wind data and ship observations indicate that tropical-storm-force
winds of 40 to 45 mph are occurring on the northern and eastern
areas of the large disturbance. If this recent development trend
continues, then a tropical storm could form later today when the
wave moves into the central Caribbean Sea, or by early Tuesday as it
approaches Jamaica and moves into the western Caribbean Sea. Locally
heavy rains and gusty winds are expected over Hispaniola today, and
reaching Jamaica and Cuba by late Monday as the system moves
westward at 20 to 25 mph. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in
the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of
this strong disturbance. For additional information on this system,
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart

[Hammy]

Looks to me to be very very close. Also looks to me to possibly have quite a pinhole center. Only thing I might add to the model discussion is that I believe it was initialized about 1 1/2 degrees too far south, and my guess would be at 16.5N and 68.5W.

Pinhole center could be possible--Euro develops a very small 997mb circulation within 24 hours.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

satellite loop to me looks like a slight curve more north than a straight shot to mexico and/or more south to central america.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/flash-vis-long.html

[Aric Dunn]

Given the synoptic setup and current trends. Jamaica could be looking at a Strong TS by tuesday... ( maybe more) . being a relatively small system once a well defined low level structure is established it wont take much. the models show very little intensification... however they all show a small area ( which its in now that migrates west with it) that would be conducive for intensification if it stays there.

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 010600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2016


Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high is centered over the W Gulf of Mexico near 28N92W.
5-10 kt anticyclonic winds are noted around the high. Scattered
showers remain over the E Gulf of Mexico and W Cuba from 22N-30N
between 82W-86W. In the upper levels...an upper level high is
centered over the N Gulf near 28N90W. An upper level low is
centered over the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Strong
subsidence is over the W Gulf with upper level moisture
elsewhere. Expect over the next 24 hours for the surface high to
be replaced by a surface ridge. Also expect an upper level low
to move NE to N of the Bahamas with increased convection.

[NDG]

Like I have been saying maybe the HWRF is not so far off after all with the latest Euro run joining it of an LLC forming later today and 97L really take off as it heads towards the GOH.
It will be interesting to see what vis satellite shows later this morning.
One interesting thing is that the bouy south of Jamaica is reporting much lighter winds compared to yesterday morning indicative that the trades have slowed down ahead of 97L which may help in an LLC to form.

[Hammy]

Based on the curvature and apparant spin of the convective towers, as well as multiple bands forming on the southern edge, I'd say this is now either closed off or about to be. Next ASCAT pass should confirm.

[Nimbus]

Like I have been saying maybe the HWRF is not so far off after all with the latest Euro run joining it of an LLC forming later today and 97L really take off as it heads towards the GOH.
It will be interesting to see what vis satellite shows later this morning.
One interesting thing is that the bouy south of Jamaica is reporting much lighter winds compared to yesterday morning indicative that the trades have slowed down ahead of 97L which may help in an LLC to form.

The CDO has persisted so if there is a low level center underneath it must not be moving west as fast since it has not outrun the CDO. If they initialize the models with a TS we might get better model output. The shallow and deep layer BAMM have been generating a similar track but that was assuming a weak initial system.

[Hammy]

Like I have been saying maybe the HWRF is not so far off after all with the latest Euro run joining it of an LLC forming later today and 97L really take off as it heads towards the GOH.
It will be interesting to see what vis satellite shows later this morning.
One interesting thing is that the bouy south of Jamaica is reporting much lighter winds compared to yesterday morning indicative that the trades have slowed down ahead of 97L which may help in an LLC to form.

The CDO has persisted so if there is a low level center underneath it must not be moving west as fast since it has not outrun the CDO. If they initialize the models with a TS we might get better model output. The shallow and deep layer BAMM have been generating a similar track but that was assuming a weak initial system.

There seems to be increasing shear over the system, as per CIMSS the upper high is diving southwest as the system goes west, and there appears to be a formative LLC west of the convection in the vicinity of 16/72. Very likely why the models don't really strengthen this much.

[Alyono]

the MU looks to be developing a broad low in the SW Caribbean. Thin it is slightly too far south in the GOH

[JaxGator]

Like I have been saying maybe the HWRF is not so far off after all with the latest Euro run joining it of an LLC forming later today and 97L really take off as it heads towards the GOH.
It will be interesting to see what vis satellite shows later this morning.
One interesting thing is that the bouy south of Jamaica is reporting much lighter winds compared to yesterday morning indicative that the trades have slowed down ahead of 97L which may help in an LLC to form.

The CDO has persisted so if there is a low level center underneath it must not be moving west as fast since it has not outrun the CDO. If they initialize the models with a TS we might get better model output. The shallow and deep layer BAMM have been generating a similar track but that was assuming a weak initial system.

There seems to be increasing shear over the system, as per CIMSS the upper high is diving southwest as the system goes west, and there appears to be a formative LLC west of the convection in the vicinity of 16/72. Very likely why the models don't really strengthen this much.

Where do you see the shear? If there is any, I don't see it affecting
the storm much. In addition to the anti-clyclone overhead. Of course, I can be wrong with this.