ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[gatorcane]

UKMET continues to go with strong re-development of 97L in the EPAC:

[stormlover2013]

Looks the same for gfs also

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/760142134313885696

[Blinhart]

What happens if they find out that this thing has stacked up and is a lot stronger than they thought and not nearly as West as they thought?

[Alyono]

There is a chance that will remain Earl into the Pacific

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Wow, what a ball of convection. I personally dont think its stacked yet, but seems to be getting its act together. I think late tonight/early tomorrow morning we can have a storm officially. Once it gets stacked, i think it will develop quickly. Lets hope it keeps moving by jamaica quickly to lower chances of development before making an impact.

[tarheelprogrammer]

LLC seems to be here you can see it has tucked back under heavy convection. Moving wnw.

[wxman57]

It does look like the LLC which was west of the convection earlier today may have dissipated and is reforming closer to the MLC. Low-level shear due to the rapid westerly movement may be relaxing. Any indication of recon?

[tarheelprogrammer]

It does look like the LLC which was west of the convection earlier today may have dissipated and is reforming closer to the MLC. Low-level shear due to the rapid westerly movement may be relaxing. Any indication of recon?

Yes, later this evening.

[tolakram]

Outflow boundaries flying off but new convection building at the same time.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=25&mapcolor=gray

[cycloneye]

Even with the Sierra Madre big hurdle?

[tolakram]

Saved RGB loop:



I am guessing convection building on north and south side of possible forming LLC but again, it's pretty much a wild guess. Need RECON!

[wxman57]

It does look like the LLC which was west of the convection earlier today may have dissipated and is reforming closer to the MLC. Low-level shear due to the rapid westerly movement may be relaxing. Any indication of recon?

Yes, later this evening.

Their POD says 18Z tomorrow for recon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

[tolakram]

Their POD says 18Z tomorrow for recon.

They tweeted (sorry) that there will be recon this evening. New official channel, apparently.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It does look like the LLC which was west of the convection earlier today may have dissipated and is reforming closer to the MLC. Low-level shear due to the rapid westerly movement may be relaxing. Any indication of recon?

Yes, later this evening.

Their POD says 18Z tomorrow for recon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/760128230468816897

[srainhoutx]

It does look like the LLC which was west of the convection earlier today may have dissipated and is reforming closer to the MLC. Low-level shear due to the rapid westerly movement may be relaxing. Any indication of recon?

Yes, later this evening.

Their POD says 18Z tomorrow for recon.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 31 JULY 2016
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z AUGUST 2016
TCPOD NUMBER.....16-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PROBABLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.5N 80.0W FOR 02/1800Z. BEGIN
6-HRLY FIXES AT 03/0600Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

Received word they are flying:

Code: Select all

 3. REMARKS: TEAL 71 IS FLYING A RESOURCES PERMITTING LOW LEVEL
       INVEST INTO THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ESTIMATED TAKEOFF 01/1630Z.

[hurricanes1234]

But what the heck is this?

http://i.imgur.com/4Y0zmmg.png

It doesn't look natural to me.

It probably is natural, just an oddly shaped band wrapping around it.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/760122023439962113

[tolakram]

Full 30 frame loop now, speed it up. I'm sold, I say this gets named later today or as soon as recon confirms an LLC.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[davidiowx]

I would agree with that as well