ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#741 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:01 pm

GFS pushed development back once again, back at 48 hours now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#742 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:10 pm

Hammy wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:97L is not looking too good now. :roll:


It likely peaked earlier and I'm still not entirely sold that it'll ever develop to start with, especially since whatever low is there is farther north (and in a higher shear environment) than the models were showing when development was indicated. And being further north, disruption from land is more likely as well.


This hasn't gained any latitude in the last 18 hours and the low level environment will be more conducive in the Western Carribean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#743 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:11 pm

BS FLAG raised on the ECMWF forecast

The EC for some reason initialized this as a very well organized TS when it is really an open wave. Model should be tossed out due to very poor initialization. It's track is of value, however
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#744 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:12 pm

It's not the low level environment that is the problem. This has slowed down quite a bit from yesterday.

It's running into an upper low that is not moving out of the way. That may be why SHIPS has moderate to strong shear

Environment may not become favorable again until Wednesday in the Gulf of Honduras
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#745 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:16 pm

Alyono wrote:It's not the low level environment that is the problem. This has slowed down quite a bit from yesterday.

It's running into an upper low that is not moving out of the way. That may be why SHIPS has moderate to strong shear

Environment may not become favorable again until Wednesday in the Gulf of Honduras


Looking at a WV loop, the upper-low seems to be moving out to the west fairly quickly. Outflow west of the disturbance looks good. Slowing down will result in greater low-level convergence and rapid strengthening. It may already be a 35-40kt TS (ship report), but recon had a problem and turned back. Remember, SHIPS uses a very large latitude range for shear, maybe too large.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon - Discussion

#746 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:33 pm

The next mission will be in the overnight hours with plane departing at 3:15 AM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 02/1130, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 02/0715Z
D. 16.1N 79.0W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#747 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Alyono wrote:It's not the low level environment that is the problem. This has slowed down quite a bit from yesterday.

It's running into an upper low that is not moving out of the way. That may be why SHIPS has moderate to strong shear

Environment may not become favorable again until Wednesday in the Gulf of Honduras


Looking at a WV loop, the upper-low seems to be moving out to the west fairly quickly. Outflow west of the disturbance looks good. Slowing down will result in greater low-level convergence and rapid strengthening. It may already be a 35-40kt TS (ship report), but recon had a problem and turned back. Remember, SHIPS uses a very large latitude range for shear, maybe too large.


the other issue is the models do not develop this until it merges with the broad low in the SW Caribbean. Only EC develops the wave itself.

I suspect what we will see is a 45-50 kt tropical storm into Belize, weakening to a TD over land, and then a period of rapid intensification into a hurricane in the BOC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#748 Postby Hammy » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:36 pm

That intense band over and south of Jamaica seems to be further inhibiting the inflow that would allow a closed low to form.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#749 Postby alan1961 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:36 pm

Image

ISS goes right over 97L from rear camera view
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#750 Postby NDG » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:38 pm

Based on the last 12 hr fixes my calculations show that it is moving at approximately 25 mph, that is up from last night's movement when I calculated it near 22.5 mph.
It is creating its own shear, IMO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#751 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:39 pm

looking closely at visible, this may not have slowed down. Seeing some type of vortmax near 17.5N, 76W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Recon - Discussion

#752 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:The next mission will be in the overnight hours with plane departing at 3:15 AM EDT.

FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 02/1130, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 0205A CYCLONE
C. 02/0715Z
D. 16.1N 79.0W
E. 02/1100Z TO 02/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


a rescheduling would not surprise me, with only the 18Z fix occurring since we do not have a TC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#753 Postby wxmann_91 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:56 pm

Alyono wrote:BS FLAG raised on the ECMWF forecast

The EC for some reason initialized this as a very well organized TS when it is really an open wave. Model should be tossed out due to very poor initialization. It's track is of value, however


EC initialized fine, maybe a little too strong in terms of pressure, but not too far off from 18Z BT value of 1007mb. Most importantly, not closed at 850mb.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#754 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Aug 01, 2016 5:59 pm

Alyono wrote:looking closely at visible, this may not have slowed down. Seeing some type of vortmax near 17.5N, 76W


I saw that, looks like a possible LLC moving quickly just north of due west now south of eastern Jamaica near 16.6N and 76W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models

#755 Postby Alyono » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:10 pm

wxmann_91 wrote:
Alyono wrote:BS FLAG raised on the ECMWF forecast

The EC for some reason initialized this as a very well organized TS when it is really an open wave. Model should be tossed out due to very poor initialization. It's track is of value, however


EC initialized fine, maybe a little too strong in terms of pressure, but not too far off from 18Z BT value of 1007mb. Most importantly, not closed at 850mb.

Image


was closed on the full res. It also initialized at I believe 1001mb on the full res
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#756 Postby leanne_uk » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:29 pm

Are we thinking that this may cause issues for Jamaica or will it just bring some rain and wind?
I've got friends out there on holiday at the moment and they are asking questions about the situation.
(I'm currently in hospital so don't have my full net access to check this out in depth)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#757 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:37 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Anyone every seen a outflow line in Caribbean hit a channel of moisture over Jamaica, then exploded down the line to the SW? This is ahead of 97L to it west. The blob on sats, look how it started this afternoon, freaking impressive explosion of storms!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#758 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:40 pm

leanne_uk wrote:Are we thinking that this may cause issues for Jamaica or will it just bring some rain and wind?
I've got friends out there on holiday at the moment and they are asking questions about the situation.
(I'm currently in hospital so don't have my full net access to check this out in depth)


Hi

Yes, according to the NHC, it is likely to bring heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to Jamaica by tonight. An excerpt from the 2 PM update of the area today from the Tropical Weather Outlook page:

Regardless of
development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to
tropical storm force, will continue over portions of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti through this evening. Tropical storm conditions
are likely to occur over Jamaica by this evening, and could reach
the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests in these areas and
elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#759 Postby latitude_20 » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:41 pm

stormhunter7 wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/html5-vis-long.html

Anyone every seen a outflow line in Caribbean hit a channel of moisture over Jamaica, then exploded down the line to the SW? This is ahead of 97L to it west. The blob on sats, look how it started this afternoon, freaking impressive explosion of storms!


I was pretty amazed by that as well. It'll be interesting to see how that affects development.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion

#760 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2016 6:42 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, located a
couple of hundred miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to
move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Although the associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains well organized, surface
observations indicate that the system still appears to lack a
closed surface circulation. Environmental conditions are expected
to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm
is likely to form later tonight or Tuesday morning. An Air Force
Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system Tuesday morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will
continue over portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti through
this evening. Tropical storm conditions are likely to occur over
Jamaica tonight, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight.
Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea
should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For
additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
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