ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[tatertawt24]

It has that "Big blob of convection" look to it again.

[Yellow Evan]

It has that "Big blob of convection" look to it again.

A sign mid-level shear is increasing again.

[hurricanes1234]

It has that "Big blob of convection" look to it again.

Seems to be an overnight thing with 97L to acquire the blob look.

[wflamholtz]

It has that "Big blob of convection" look to it again.

A sign mid-level shear is increasing again.

I think it has more to do with the diurnal cycle and associated low-level vorticity

[Alyono]

it's more upper shear

this has outrun the upper anti-cyclone

the models are almost always right these days. This is not the 1990s anymore where the models did not have a clue due to poor resolution and lack of understanding in data assimilation. They have been saying slow development, and that is what we are seeing

[Hammy]

System is moving closest to Jamaica's radar now and it looks like it's gotten better organized since earlier and there are some hints of possible ENE-NE movement of some of the rain on radar. Should be an interesting discussion at 2am given that we have a nice view of the internal structure at the moment.

This kind of reminds me of Dolly in 2008, going almost insane watching every little low cloud motion to tell if it's closed or not.

[Aric Dunn]

its quite likely been a TS most of the day.. if I had the time I would do a post analysis on it. its rather ridiculous really.

[tatertawt24]

System is moving closest to Jamaica's radar now and it looks like it's gotten better organized since earlier and there are some hints of possible ENE-NE movement of some of the rain on radar. Should be an interesting discussion at 2am given that we have a nice view of the internal structure at the moment.

This kind of reminds me of Dolly in 2008, going almost insane watching every little low cloud motion to tell if it's closed or not.

This is similar to Dolly in a lot of ways. Dolly was named around the same general area, I believe; around the same time of year, too. Are any of the models still calling for a southern TX landfall?

[Hammy]

its quite likely been a TS most of the day.. if I had the time I would do a post analysis on it. its rather ridiculous really.

I had to stick the Jamaica radar images in a program to go back and fourth so I could check them, and while I don't think it's been closed most of the day it seems pretty clear over the last hour or so that there is westerly inflow just south of where the circulation is at. 11 am tomorrow should see an upgrade if they don't do a special advisory once the plane gets there later tonight.

Are any of the models still calling for a southern TX landfall?

Most of the models at this point seem to be centering in the general vicinity of Veracruz--the high is much stronger than it was in 2008 at the moment so there won't be much if any gain in latitude once it reaches the GoM.

[Aric Dunn]

its quite likely been a TS most of the day.. if I had the time I would do a post analysis on it. its rather ridiculous really.

I had to stick the Jamaica radar images in a program to go back and fourth so I could check them, and while I don't think it's been closed most of the day it seems pretty clear over the last hour or so that there is westerly inflow just south of where the circulation is at. 11 am tomorrow should see an upgrade if they don't do a special advisory once the plane gets there later tonight.

Are any of the models still calling for a southern TX landfall?

Most of the models at this point seem to be centering in the general vicinity of Veracruz--the high is much stronger than it was in 2008 at the moment so there won't be much if any gain in latitude once it reaches the GoM.

systems have been upgraded for even the slightest and weakest west wind with systems that have had less organization than this. to say there is not even weak west winds is silly given proximity to land. Even though the effect on land would be the same. its about the data ... having a central/eastern Caribbean development when it pretty much never happens is very important. the lack of data after so many years in the MDR and carribean is still so silly to me.

[stormwise]

looking 3/4 wrapped to me.

[Hammy]

Seems to be developing a very small and tight LLC.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar although looking close to the mid levels is indicating a very well defined system... however still small in size. its quite likely a moderate to strong TS in a localized area.

[AJC3]

Radar, surface obs, scatterometer data, all of them show a sharp wave axis.

This doesn't have a closed center, and certainly didn't have one Monday morning either.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar, surface obs, scatterometer data, all of them show a sharp wave axis.

This doesn't have a closed center, and certainly didn't have one Monday morning either.

not enough data to determine either way. thats the problem.

[AJC3]

Radar, surface obs, scatterometer data, all of them show a sharp wave axis.

This doesn't have a closed center, and certainly didn't have one Monday morning either.

not enough data to determine either way. thats the problem.

Every piece of data I've looked at says it's not, especially radar. Pretty clear to me.

[Aric Dunn]

Radar, surface obs, scatterometer data, all of them show a sharp wave axis.

This doesn't have a closed center, and certainly didn't have one Monday morning either.

not enough data to determine either way. thats the problem.

Every piece of data I've looked at says it's not, especially radar. Pretty clear to me.

fair enough. given the circumstance .. that and ill take your word anytime

[AJC3]

not enough data to determine either way. thats the problem.

Every piece of data I've looked at says it's not, especially radar. Pretty clear to me.

fair enough. given the circumstance .. that and ill take your word anytime

Give it another 36 hours or so. I suspect that it'll close off as it slows down a little more on it's approach to CENTAM.

[Aric Dunn]

Every piece of data I've looked at says it's not, especially radar. Pretty clear to me.

fair enough. given the circumstance .. that and ill take your word anytime

Give it another 36 hours or so. I suspect that it'll close off as it slows down a little more on it's approach to CENTAM.

oh yes the physics of it all ... if it were pure thermodynamics based it would be regardless of forward motion, but oh well its all fun ... the definitions ...

[AJC3]

oh yes the physics of it all ... if it were pure thermodynamics based it would be regardless of forward motion, but oh well its all fun ... the definitions ...

Easy way to solve this.... LOL

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