ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[Hammy]

Every piece of data I've looked at says it's not, especially radar. Pretty clear to me.

fair enough. given the circumstance .. that and ill take your word anytime

Give it another 36 hours or so. I suspect that it'll close off as it slows down a little more in it's approach to CENTAM.

It's headed into stronger shear as per CIMSS--the 30+ kt section is barely moving west while the wave is moving at 25-30mph. I honestly don't think it has more than 24 hours of decent conditions ahead of it, and if it doesn't develop by tomorrow I don't see it doing so after--And I'm certain enough that I've put money on it with someone.

Radar is kind of a mixed signal sort of deal--every time it looks closed, new frames come in showing it isn't, and then when I think it isn't, new frames come in showing some easterly component to the rain. I will say the radar presentation overall looks a tad worse over the last half hour as it did an hour or two ago and it may have actually decreased in low-level organization.

[Aric Dunn]

oh yes the physics of it all ... if it were pure thermodynamics based it would be regardless of forward motion, but oh well its all fun ... the definitions ...

Easy way to solve this.... LOL

 https://twitter.com/WxmanTony/status/759835130852540417

haha yeah. maybe we should start a new movement ?

[Aric Dunn]

get it ? New Movement...

[Hammy]

Euro initialized as a closed circulation once again.

[chaser1]

It is my opinion that this is an example of inconsistant tropical cyclone classification. Compared to several GOM classified T.S.'s that come to mind, some lacking significant fundamental required features that define a tropical depression (oh, um.. like CONVECTION for instance lol?), Earl... er 97L I mean exhibits banding features, strong co-located convection, sustained 20-30 + knot winds, relative low surface pressures, data that at minimum would indicate a nearly closed surface low, and being a tropical feature that has clearly not pulsated diurnally but rather maintained and improved its overall appearance over a period of time. Yet, 97L just doesnt meet the scrutiny to even establish it as a tropical depression. Why? Maybe the untimely minimal Solar CME impact to Earth today was at fault of temporarily "zapping" recon equipment along with a host of NOAA buoy's in the path of this disturbance, or who knows... maybe "chem-trails" are at play here LOL All I know, is that the GOM somehow seems entirelly benign to such classification upgrade challanges.

Okay, rant over - the captain has turned off the fasten seat belt signs - you are free to move about the cabin......

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro has a developed hurricane making landfall in Belize, I'm not buying it one bit!

[mobilebay]

It is my opinion that this is an example of inconsistant tropical cyclone classification. Compared to several GOM classified T.S.'s that come to mind, some lacking significant fundamental required features that define a tropical depression (oh, um.. like CONVECTION for instance lol?), Earl... er 97L I mean exhibits banding features, strong co-located convection, sustained 20-30 + knot winds, relative low surface pressures, data that at minimum would indicate a nearly closed surface low, and being a tropical feature that has clearly not pulsated diurnally but rather maintained and improved its overall appearance over a period of time. Yet, 97L just doesnt meet the scrutiny to even establish it as a tropical depression. Why? Maybe the untimely minimal Solar CME impact to Earth today was at fault of temporarily "zapping" recon equipment along with a host of NOAA buoy's in the path of this disturbance, or who knows... maybe "chem-trails" are at play here LOL All I know, is that the GOM somehow seems entirelly benign to such classification upgrade challanges.

Okay, rant over - the captain has turned off the fasten seat belt signs - you are free to move about the cabin......

Lol. I have seen some ragady looking systems classified over the years in the Gulf that was questionable. Its got to have a closed llc or its not a tropical cyclone.

[Hammy]

00z Euro has a developed hurricane making landfall in Belize, I'm not buying it one bit!

From what Alyono posted about the earlier Euro run, this one too can probably be scrapped as this still isn't closed (or wasn't at the time the data was input) yet it initialized it as such anyway.

[Hammy]

It is my opinion that this is an example of inconsistant tropical cyclone classification. Compared to several GOM classified T.S.'s that come to mind, some lacking significant fundamental required features that define a tropical depression (oh, um.. like CONVECTION for instance lol?), Earl... er 97L I mean exhibits banding features, strong co-located convection, sustained 20-30 + knot winds, relative low surface pressures, data that at minimum would indicate a nearly closed surface low, and being a tropical feature that has clearly not pulsated diurnally but rather maintained and improved its overall appearance over a period of time. Yet, 97L just doesnt meet the scrutiny to even establish it as a tropical depression. Why? Maybe the untimely minimal Solar CME impact to Earth today was at fault of temporarily "zapping" recon equipment along with a host of NOAA buoy's in the path of this disturbance, or who knows... maybe "chem-trails" are at play here LOL All I know, is that the GOM somehow seems entirelly benign to such classification upgrade challanges.

Okay, rant over - the captain has turned off the fasten seat belt signs - you are free to move about the cabin......

Lol. I have seen some ragady looking systems classified over the years in the Gulf that was questionable. Its got to have a closed llc or its not a tropical cyclone.

Degree of organization needed (solid LLC vs broad with mesovortices, convection consistency or location relative to the center, etc) seems to be subjective, but I've never seen anything upgraded, Gulf or otherwise, without that west wind being found. After analyzing the radar (going back and fourth between the latest two images and looking at every individual cell/pixel) it seems that there is a very sharp axis, but no closed circulation.

Rough motion estimate.



The wind field is closer than earlier as it seemed more NNE/NE and SSE/SE on the western and eastern side (now it's due north/south wind) but still not quite there.

[TheStormExpert]

2am TWO is basically a copy and paste.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A strong tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea, located about 150 miles south-southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to move quickly westward at about 20 mph. Recent satellite data indicate that the system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, but that it still appears to lack a closed surface circulation. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is likely to form later today. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, will
continue over portions of Jamaica this morning and reach the Cayman Islands later today. Interests in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[chaser1]

00z Euro has a developed hurricane making landfall in Belize, I'm not buying it one bit!

I agree, I'm thinking it'll be at least 50 miles north of there.

[TheStormExpert]

00z Euro has a developed hurricane making landfall in Belize, I'm not buying it one bit!

From what Alyono posted about the earlier Euro run, this one too can probably be scrapped as this still isn't closed (or wasn't at the time the data was input) yet it initialized it as such anyway.

Like earlier in the season and in the East Pacific the Euro is being too aggressive with systems this year.

[NDG]

I can clearly see what appears to be a very small LLC just to the west of the MLC all along, which was also evident on earlier visible satellite loop before sunset.

[NDG]

The Euro has been handling the system just fine, looking at its HR zoomed in forecast through the wunderground site it has been showing a very tight small closed circulation. On its 12z forecast it showed very well that in the area where buoy 42058 is that winds were going to be from the east all along as the circulation was going to pass to its north by 100 miles.

[StormHunter72]

It will get buried in Mexico.

[Hammy]

Circulation still doesn't look closed on radar, and any circulation that's there appears to already be decoupling and the convective pattern is flattening out north-south as it runs into the wall of shear to the west--time may have run out on development as the upper pattern is not improving at all to the west.

As an aside, I don't see any recon data--was the flight cancelled?

[Nimbus]

The small LLC appears to have finally started to outrun the CDO.
Probably a temporary situation as we will be past Jamaica and a forecast slowdown should start soon.
Track should be weak and west till the convection wraps better again.
The ULL/TUTT to the west could hinder development till it fills and the gulf states high bridges over.

[Alyono]

looks like no recon until the afternoon

[NDG]

Overnight it sure has run into some windhshear, it is outpacing the UL high & MLC, it needs to slow down so that the UL ridge builds back on top of it.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/760428947041648640