ATL: EARL - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Conditions never did look like they'd be favorable for development until the center reached near 85W - just before reaching the Yucatan. That's when it is forecast to slow down a lot and have greater surface convergence.

[ouragans]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A vigorous tropical wave passing just south of Jamaica is moving
rapidly westward at about 20 mph toward the northwestern Caribbean
Sea. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional
development, and a tropical storm will likely form later today. An
Air Force plane is enroute to investigate the wave and determine if
a closed circulation has formed. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, the wave is already producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and
these conditions along with heavy rains will likely continue over
portions of Jamaica this morning, and will spread over the Cayman
Islands later today. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea,
primarily the north coast of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan
Peninsula should monitor products issued by their local
meteorological services for possible watches and warnings. For
additional information, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

[Alyono]

As I suspected, no recon until the afternoon. It is VERY rare to do a 12Z invest mission

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021224
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 15 20160802
121500 2239N 08624W 4099 07439 0429 -163 -282 011016 017 015 000 00
121530 2237N 08623W 4101 07435 0429 -165 -273 011016 016 017 000 00
121600 2234N 08622W 4101 07436 0428 -165 -275 017016 016 016 001 00
121630 2232N 08621W 4101 07436 0428 -164 -284 017015 016 018 000 00
121700 2229N 08620W 4099 07439 0429 -161 -281 021014 015 015 000 00
121730 2227N 08619W 4101 07438 0431 -159 -284 020010 013 015 001 00
121800 2224N 08618W 4099 07442 0431 -160 -279 022008 009 015 000 00
121830 2222N 08617W 4101 07440 0431 -160 -281 023009 010 014 000 00
121900 2220N 08616W 4099 07440 0432 -155 -285 029008 010 015 000 00
121930 2217N 08615W 4101 07440 0431 -155 -271 023008 008 015 000 00
122000 2215N 08614W 4098 07441 0431 -159 -274 013010 010 015 000 00
122030 2213N 08613W 4101 07438 0431 -160 -275 011011 011 015 000 00
122100 2210N 08612W 4101 07441 0432 -160 -270 012009 010 015 000 00
122130 2208N 08611W 4101 07441 0433 -160 -275 016010 010 015 000 00
122200 2205N 08610W 4101 07441 0433 -163 -305 011010 011 015 000 00
122230 2203N 08609W 4099 07442 0433 -165 -330 014011 012 014 000 00
122300 2201N 08608W 4099 07442 0433 -162 -328 014012 012 015 000 00
122330 2158N 08607W 4102 07438 0433 -160 -329 018010 012 016 000 00
122400 2156N 08606W 4099 07441 0432 -160 -345 018009 010 016 000 00
122430 2154N 08605W 4101 07441 0432 -160 -337 015007 009 014 000 00
$$

[cycloneye]

Plane is flying.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021234
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 16 20160802
122500 2151N 08604W 4099 07443 0432 -163 -298 007008 009 014 000 00
122530 2149N 08603W 4101 07438 0432 -162 -296 006008 009 014 000 00
122600 2147N 08601W 4099 07442 0432 -166 -284 012008 009 015 000 00
122630 2144N 08600W 4101 07438 0432 -168 -260 009007 008 013 000 00
122700 2142N 08559W 4099 07442 0432 -165 -265 006008 009 013 000 00
122730 2139N 08558W 4101 07438 0431 -165 -263 013007 007 014 001 00
122800 2137N 08557W 4099 07441 0431 -165 -249 014007 008 013 000 00
122830 2135N 08556W 4101 07437 0430 -165 -268 014008 008 013 000 00
122900 2132N 08555W 4099 07439 0430 -165 -265 016006 007 013 000 00
122930 2130N 08554W 4101 07437 0430 -165 -238 009006 007 014 000 00
123000 2128N 08553W 4101 07438 0430 -163 -247 004006 006 013 000 00
123030 2125N 08552W 4101 07438 0430 -167 -235 011006 006 014 000 00
123100 2123N 08551W 4099 07440 0430 -168 -230 018006 006 014 000 00
123130 2121N 08550W 4101 07438 0429 -166 -237 012006 007 014 000 00
123200 2118N 08549W 4101 07437 0429 -169 -226 008007 008 014 000 00
123230 2116N 08548W 4101 07435 0429 -166 -215 354007 008 013 000 00
123300 2114N 08547W 4101 07437 0430 -166 -234 354007 008 013 000 00
123330 2111N 08546W 4099 07439 0430 -170 -197 333008 008 015 000 00
123400 2109N 08545W 4101 07438 0431 -168 -205 329008 008 016 000 00
123430 2106N 08544W 4101 07439 0430 -164 -241 353009 010 015 000 00
$$

[Aric Dunn]

Just as Suspected. A LLC did develop and has now shot out ahead of the convection.. its been a TC for at least 12 hours.

[Blown Away]

97L is fighter... Got to be a fighter to make it in the Atlantic basin these days...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/760449802660352000

[Alyono]

first light visible may be showing west winds. I need a few more images to confirm

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021244
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 17 20160802
123500 2104N 08543W 4101 07439 0431 -164 -236 005010 011 015 000 00
123530 2102N 08542W 4099 07440 0430 -162 -250 003012 012 014 001 00
123600 2059N 08541W 4101 07438 0430 -163 -271 005011 012 017 000 00
123630 2057N 08540W 4099 07438 0429 -163 -253 008011 011 016 000 00
123700 2054N 08539W 4099 07438 0429 -161 -255 007010 010 015 000 00
123730 2052N 08538W 4100 07437 0428 -164 -248 006010 011 016 000 00
123800 2050N 08537W 4101 07435 0427 -164 -245 009011 011 015 001 00
123830 2047N 08536W 4099 07436 0427 -156 -269 010012 012 015 000 00
123900 2045N 08535W 4098 07439 0427 -156 -289 006010 012 017 000 00
123930 2042N 08534W 4102 07432 0427 -162 -234 007008 009 018 000 00
124000 2040N 08533W 4099 07435 0427 -161 -230 007009 010 017 000 00
124030 2038N 08532W 4101 07433 0427 -160 -244 003011 012 017 000 00
124100 2035N 08531W 4101 07435 0428 -160 -237 359012 013 016 000 00
124130 2033N 08530W 4101 07435 0428 -160 -242 003009 011 017 000 00
124200 2030N 08529W 4101 07438 0429 -163 -205 000009 009 017 000 00
124230 2028N 08528W 4099 07438 0429 -163 -213 356010 010 017 000 00
124300 2026N 08527W 4098 07440 0429 -161 -212 003011 011 017 000 00
124330 2023N 08526W 4101 07435 0429 -161 -200 009008 011 017 001 00
124400 2021N 08525W 4099 07438 0427 -160 -204 010009 009 017 000 00
124430 2019N 08524W 4101 07427 0421 -160 -202 004010 011 018 000 00
$$

[srainhoutx]

Early morning 1km zoomed visible imagery suggests 97L does have a low level circulation around 17N and 77W out ahead of the convection. RECON is en route and we should know if it is enough to upgrade within the hour. I do not expect intensification until the disturbance slows down as it nears Belize/Yucatan Peninsula later today into tomorrow when it may become more vertically stacked.

[tolakram]

0Z Euro stil showing a strong storm (988mb) hitting Belize.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021254
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 18 20160802
124500 2016N 08523W 4099 07427 0418 -159 -199 004008 010 018 000 00
124530 2014N 08522W 4099 07428 0417 -156 -203 001005 007 017 000 00
124600 2012N 08520W 4094 07434 0417 -154 -211 055004 006 014 001 03
124630 2010N 08518W 4101 07424 0417 -159 -201 063005 006 017 000 00
124700 2009N 08516W 4100 07425 0416 -166 -191 049007 008 019 000 00
124730 2007N 08514W 4101 07422 0415 -162 -192 047010 010 019 000 00
124800 2006N 08512W 4098 07426 0415 -160 -209 040010 011 018 000 00
124830 2005N 08509W 4099 07424 0416 -160 -201 029011 012 017 000 00
124900 2004N 08507W 4101 07423 0417 -158 -211 031014 016 017 000 00
124930 2002N 08505W 4101 07424 0416 -160 -203 033018 019 018 000 00
125000 2001N 08502W 4101 07422 0415 -160 -203 036017 018 017 000 00
125030 2000N 08500W 4101 07423 0416 -162 -206 033018 019 017 000 00
125100 1958N 08458W 4101 07424 0417 -161 -195 032019 020 017 000 00
125130 1957N 08456W 4101 07425 0417 -165 -206 036019 020 018 000 00
125200 1956N 08453W 4098 07430 0418 -165 -199 030020 020 018 000 00
125230 1954N 08451W 4105 07418 0417 -160 -209 029020 020 016 000 00
125300 1953N 08449W 4095 07436 0418 -164 -204 033019 019 018 000 00
125330 1953N 08449W 4095 07436 0418 -165 -189 032018 019 017 000 00
125400 1950N 08445W 4102 07424 0419 -164 -202 032016 017 018 000 00
125430 1949N 08442W 4098 07430 0418 -162 -192 038015 016 017 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

[tolakram]

Live visible. no question now in my opinion, just waiting for recon confirmation.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=725&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/760458872251228161

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021305
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 19 20160802
125500 1948N 08440W 4103 07423 0419 -165 -201 036015 015 018 000 00
125530 1947N 08438W 4095 07436 0418 -165 -188 031015 016 017 000 00
125600 1945N 08436W 4103 07421 0418 -169 -193 029015 016 018 000 00
125630 1944N 08433W 4098 07431 0418 -164 -188 020013 016 018 000 00
125700 1943N 08431W 4101 07425 0419 -160 -208 014011 011 017 000 00
125730 1941N 08429W 4101 07425 0418 -159 -200 018010 011 017 000 00
125800 1940N 08427W 4102 07425 0419 -160 -208 020009 010 017 000 00
125830 1939N 08424W 4095 07437 0420 -156 -203 023009 010 018 000 00
125900 1937N 08422W 4105 07421 0420 -160 -205 027011 012 017 000 00
125930 1936N 08420W 4095 07437 0420 -162 -190 026009 012 017 000 00
130000 1935N 08417W 4103 07423 0420 -157 -255 037007 007 016 000 00
130030 1933N 08415W 4098 07431 0420 -160 -266 051007 009 016 000 00
130100 1932N 08413W 4100 07427 0419 -160 -260 047009 009 015 000 00
130130 1931N 08411W 4101 07427 0420 -159 -283 048008 009 016 000 00
130200 1929N 08409W 4102 07424 0419 -160 -249 060011 012 015 000 00
130230 1928N 08406W 4101 07426 0419 -160 -231 054012 013 016 000 00
130300 1927N 08404W 4099 07430 0419 -157 -244 053009 011 016 000 00
130330 1925N 08402W 4103 07423 0419 -158 -261 059008 008 017 000 00
130400 1924N 08400W 4099 07430 0420 -160 -210 054008 010 017 000 00
130430 1923N 08358W 4101 07425 0419 -162 -235 052010 011 017 000 00

[Kazmit]

This storm just won't give up until it's named Earl! Recon should let us know if we have a TS or not here, and I'm hoping the NHC starts issuing advisories today.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021314
AF303 02DDA INVEST HDOB 20 20160802
130500 1922N 08355W 4099 07429 0419 -165 -214 058008 008 017 000 00
130530 1920N 08353W 4101 07426 0420 -165 -248 051009 009 015 000 00
130600 1919N 08351W 4098 07431 0419 -157 -236 062007 008 016 000 00
130630 1918N 08349W 4101 07426 0418 -155 -254 057007 008 015 000 00
130700 1916N 08346W 4101 07424 0418 -159 -220 052006 007 016 000 00
130730 1915N 08344W 4100 07429 0420 -161 -223 051008 008 016 000 00
130800 1914N 08342W 4099 07431 0422 -164 -214 045008 009 017 000 00
130830 1912N 08340W 4101 07430 0422 -165 -221 034010 011 018 000 00
130900 1911N 08338W 4100 07432 0423 -157 -242 031008 010 019 000 00
130930 1910N 08335W 4099 07433 0423 -157 -215 036009 009 019 001 00
131000 1908N 08333W 4101 07432 0424 -163 -230 028008 009 021 000 00
131030 1907N 08331W 4101 07433 0425 -164 -211 016009 009 020 000 00
131100 1906N 08329W 4101 07432 0426 -163 -244 015007 008 019 000 00
131130 1904N 08326W 4101 07436 0428 -164 -233 019008 009 019 000 00
131200 1903N 08324W 4099 07438 0429 -165 -224 022011 012 019 000 00
131230 1902N 08322W 4103 07431 0428 -165 -240 018011 012 019 000 00
131300 1900N 08320W 4099 07439 0429 -161 -229 006012 012 018 001 00
131330 1859N 08317W 4098 07442 0430 -160 -229 020009 011 019 000 00
131400 1858N 08315W 4101 07433 0428 -159 -257 028007 008 021 000 00
131430 1856N 08313W 4098 07442 0430 -160 -258 033006 007 021 000 00
$$